JOBY

1. Executive Summary

• Joby accelerated commercialization by completing the acquisition of Blade’s passenger business, securing integration of Blade flights into the Uber app in 2026, and joining the White House’s new eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) to enable limited U.S. operations ahead of full FAA certification.
• Certification remains on track: Joby expects its first FAA‑conforming aircraft in 2025, with FAA pilots onboard early 2026 (latest guidance). The company reports strong Stage 4 progress and plans to double near-term capacity to up to 24 aircraft/year.
• Liquidity strengthened by Toyota’s strategic investment (first $250M tranche closed in May 2025); Q2’25 cash and short-term investments were ~$991M, with 2025 cash use guided to $500–$540M (ex‑Blade acquisition).
• Defense and autonomy validated with a successful DoD REFORPAC exercise demonstrating Superpilot autonomy across 7,342 miles and 43.7 hours—positioning Joby for near-term defense opportunities.

Key Takeaways

• Commercial Go‑to‑Market: Blade acquisition + Uber integration materially lower customer acquisition hurdles and accelerate ramp readiness in NYC, Southern Europe, and beyond.
• Regulatory De‑risking: Stage 4 certification momentum, first conforming aircraft targeted in 2025, FAA pilots early 2026, and U.S. eIPP enable phased early ops.
• Capacity & Industrialization: Expanded facilities in California and Ohio target 24 aircraft/year near term, with an eventual path to 500+/year in Dayton.
• Optionality: Dual‑use traction (L3Harris hybrid VTOL, DoD autonomy) adds diversified revenue paths beyond passenger service.

2. Financial Performance

Capital Raises & Proceeds

• Toyota Strategic Investment: $500M in two tranches; first $250M closed (May 27, 2025). Remaining tranche expected per prior agreement.
• Public Equity Raise: $202M gross (Oct 2024 offering at $5.05/sh).
• State Support: $9.8M California GO‑BIZ grant and ~$10M equipment cost reduction via state program (July 2025).
• Blade Passenger Business: Acquisition completed Aug 29, 2025 for up to $125M (stock/cash, incl. $35M holdbacks tied to milestones/retention).

Investor sentiment: Strategic capital from Toyota signals validation of manufacturability and long-term alignment; public raise broadened runway to critical certification milestones.

Early Revenue Initiatives

• Defense/Autonomy: REFORPAC Superpilot demo (Sept 2025) supports near-term DoD bids.
• Dubai: Exclusive 6‑year operating rights; vertiport construction underway; commercial start targeted 2026.
• Japan: Expanded partnership with ANA; JV to deploy 100+ aircraft in phased rollout starting Tokyo; demos begin Oct 1, 2025 (EXPO 2025 Osaka).
• Saudi Arabia: MoU with Abdul Latif Jameel to explore distribution of up to 200 aircraft (~$1B potential) plus MRO.
• Blade Passenger Ops: Adds immediate urban air mobility operations (50k passengers in 2024 across NYC/Southern Europe), giving Joby a live network and recurring demand funnel pre‑eVTOL entry.

Expense Management & Cash Flow

• Q2’25 (most recent financials): Net loss $324.7M; R&D $136.4M (+21% YoY); total OpEx $167.9M (+16% YoY) (per Aug 10, 2025 MD&A).
• Cash: $991M at Q2’25 end; 2025 cash use guided to $500–$540M (ex‑Blade).
• Runway: Q2 cash plus pending Toyota tranche implies >2 years liquidity at current burn rate, bridging to certification and initial commercialization. Note: Blade integration effects (cash, working capital, synergies) not yet quantified.

3. Guidance and Future Outlook

Production Ramp–Up

• First FAA‑conforming aircraft in 2025; FAA pilots onboard early 2026 (latest).
• Near-term capacity doubled to up to 24 aircraft/year across ~435k sq ft in Marina, CA; component manufacturing/testing to expand in Dayton, OH.
• Ongoing scaling support from Toyota manufacturing methodologies.

Expansion Plans

• U.S. eIPP: Early operational pilots ahead of full certification; partner selection within ~180 days from Sept 12, 2025.
• Dubai: Vertiports (DXB, Palm Jumeirah, Downtown, Marina); service start targeted 2026.
• Japan (ANA JV): >100 aircraft in phased rollout; demonstrations commence Oct 2025.
• UK (Virgin Atlantic): Partnership to launch services from Heathrow/Manchester.
• Uber Integration: Blade services on Uber app as soon as 2026, laying groundwork for Joby eVTOL insertion.

Operational Targets

• Certification: Stage 4 “for credit” momentum; first conforming aircraft in 2025; FAA pilots in early 2026.
• Manufacturing: Lean, vertically integrated production; long-term aspiration to 500+/yr aircraft at Dayton.
• Cash Discipline: 2025 burn $500–$540M (ex‑Blade); leverage state grants and Toyota expertise to lower unit/CapEx intensity over time.

4. Strategic Positioning and Initiatives

Cost Management

• Toyota alignment: Lean production systems, supply support, and component sourcing to reduce CoGS and ramp risk.
• Public funding: CA grants/equipment incentives reduce scaling costs; facility co‑location efficiencies (Marina + Dayton).
• Vertical integration: Design-build-test in-house accelerates certification and mitigates supplier risk.

Product Development

• Superpilot autonomy (Xwing acquisition) proven in complex NAS operations; informs eventual autonomy roadmap and defense offerings.
• Hybrid VTOL with L3Harris for low‑altitude defense missions; flight tests expected Fall 2025; demos 2026.
• GEACS charging deployments via partners (e.g., Jetex) to standardize infrastructure and reduce ops frictions.

Market Expansion

• Network-first approach: Blade terminals/lounges + Uber distribution create instant demand channels.
• Government partnerships: U.S. eIPP, Dubai RTA exclusivity, Japan JV, Saudi distribution underpin multi-region launch lanes.
• Airline partnerships: Delta, Virgin Atlantic, ANA enable feeder traffic and seamless customer onboarding.

5. Competitive Positioning and Market Trends

Market Positioning

• Demonstrable lead in FAA certification (Stage 4 progress; first conforming aircraft in 2025).
• First piloted eVTOL flight between two public U.S. airports; extensive test miles and international demos (Dubai, Korea, Japan).

Competitive Strengths

• Vertically integrated engineering/manufacturing; strong regulatory engagement (FAA Part 141 Flight Academy; Part 5 SMS; TIA underway).
• Commercial infrastructure and customer funnel via Blade + Uber; exclusive rights in Dubai.
• Dual-use credibility with DoD and autonomy/hybrid roadmaps.

Emerging Industry Trends

• FAA SFAR published (Oct 2024) providing operating framework; White House eIPP accelerates early adoption.
• Governments globally leaning in (UAE GCAA AOC path, Japan/UK coordination, Korea K‑UAM).
• Defense interest in autonomous logistics and ISR profiles increasing TAM beyond passenger mobility.

6. Technology and Innovation Strategy

Technological Advancements

• Stage 4 certification “for credit” testing, simulator human factors TIA, and major aerostructure tests completed for credit.
• Superpilot autonomy validated in all classes of U.S. airspace under VFR/IFR; dynamic retasking and ISR profiles proven.
• Low noise, zero‑emissions eVTOL designed for urban operations; >40,000 miles flown across fleet.

New Product Developments

• Gas‑turbine hybrid VTOL variant (with L3Harris) for defense; Joby developing hybrid powertrain on S4 platform.
• Operational software/integration: Uber app integration for Blade services; foundation for Joby eVTOL.

Alignment with Market Needs

• Urban congestion relief with quiet aircraft; premium yet time-saving rides integrated into existing apps and airline journeys.
• Defense needs for affordable autonomy and logistics; infrastructure standardization via partners (Jetex, Skyports).

7. Risk and Reward Analysis

Growth Catalysts

• Certification milestones (first conforming aircraft 2025; FAA pilots early 2026).
• Commercial launches: Dubai 2026; U.S. eIPP early ops; Uber integration; Japan JV (>100 aircraft).
• Defense: Superpilot/Hybrid demos; potential near-term contracts.
• Manufacturing scale: Toyota alliance + Dayton capacity build-out.

Downside Risks

• Certification timing slippage (latest guidance shifted FAA pilots to early 2026).
• Cash burn/dilution risk if burn exceeds plan or capex rises; Blade integration uncertainties.
• Manufacturing ramp execution (yield, quality, supply chain).
• Regulatory/airspace integration complexities by market; infrastructure build dependencies.
• Competitive pressures from other eVTOL OEMs and conventional rotorcraft incumbents.

Valuation Metrics

• Traditional P/E and EV/EBITDA not meaningful pre‑revenue; valuation hinges on probability‑weighted commercialization timelines.
• Practical frameworks:
• Cash‑adjusted EV: Market cap minus cash (~$991M at Q2’25; plus expected Toyota tranche). Track quarterly to gauge downside protection.
• EV/Sales (forward): Apply 3–7x to first full‑year commercial revenue once aircraft in service mix and utilization are visible (Dubai/Japan/US eIPP). Sensitivities: aircraft in service, hours/day, load factor, pricing, and mix of owned ops vs. sales/partnerships.
• DCF (scenario-based): Phase 1 (pre‑rev burn 2025–2026), Phase 2 (early ops 2026–2028 ramp), Phase 3 (scale 2029+). Key levers: capex cadence, unit economics (revenue/hour, maintenance/battery costs), utilization, regulatory cadence, and defense program wins.
• Near-term valuation inflections: TIA flight start, FAA pilots onboard, Uber integration live, Dubai commercial ops start, and any signed defense contracts or aircraft sale MOUs firming to POs.

8. Investment Thesis

Investment Rationale

• Unique combination of regulatory lead, manufacturing partner depth (Toyota), and commercial channels (Blade network + Uber) reduces time‑to‑market risk and customer acquisition cost.
• Multi‑pronged revenue optionality (owned operations, partnerships, defense, potential aircraft distribution) diversifies cash generation.
• Strong liquidity runway to pivotal milestones, with additional strategic capital probable contingent on execution.

Price Target Justification

• Given the absence of market price, share count evolution, and revenue baselines in the provided documents, a precise numeric target is not supportable from this dataset alone.
• Indicative approach:
• Establish cash‑adjusted EV baseline.
• Apply a forward EV/Sales range (3–7x) to first full operating year revenue (post‑Dubai launch, early U.S./Japan ops). Derive revenue via bottom‑up: aircraft in service, flights/day, seats, load factor, fare, and owned vs. partner mix.
• Cross‑check with a probability‑weighted DCF using milestone probabilities (TIA flight start, FAA pilots, commercial launch).
• Revisions from new data: Update target on confirmation of FAA pilots timeline (early 2026), Uber integration activation, Dubai launch date certainty, and any signed defense contracts.

Influencing Market Dynamics

• Policy tailwinds (FAA SFAR, eIPP) can compress time to scale; urban infrastructure build and public acceptance remain pacing items.
• Capital markets: Cost of capital and dilution path will depend on meeting milestones and defense revenue visibility.

9. Macroeconomic and Industry Trends

Regulatory Changes

• FAA SFAR (Oct 2024) provides the operating framework for near‑term eVTOL introduction; White House eIPP (Sep 2025) fosters early U.S. ops ahead of full certification.
• International regulators (UAE GCAA, Japan, UK, Korea) actively coordinating, improving multi‑region certification reciprocity.

Supply Chain Dynamics

• Strategic Toyota partnership and Ohio/California manufacturing footprint aim to de‑risk supply, improve quality, and lower unit costs.
• State incentives (CA) indicate public sector support for domestic advanced manufacturing scale‑up.

Technology Adoption Trends

• Integration of services into existing platforms (Uber) lowers adoption friction.
• Government and defense validation of autonomy and hybrid solutions broaden acceptance and TAM beyond passenger mobility.
• Early vertiport construction (Dubai) and airline partnerships (Virgin, ANA) accelerate ecosystem readiness.

Notes on recency precedence:- FAA pilots timeline reflects the most recent guidance (Sep 12, 2025): pilots onboard early 2026, superseding earlier 2025 indications.- Production capacity guidance (up to 24 aircraft/year) and cash burn outlook (2025: $500–$540M ex‑Blade) reflect the latest quarterly updates.