JOBY

Cluster: Certification and Flight Testing

Commitment: September 12, 2025: Fly the first of five FAA‑conforming aircraft in 2025 and begin FAA pilot‑on‑board flight testing early 2026, updating earlier August 2025 TIA start guidance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Latest guidance indicates first conforming aircraft to fly in 2025 and FAA pilot-on-board testing to begin early 2026. This supersedes earlier expectations of 2025 FAA-pilot TIA flight testing. Evidence shows final assembly underway and steady Stage 4 progress, supporting readiness.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-12 states Joby expects to fly its first FAA-conforming aircraft this year and begin FAA pilot-on-board flight testing early next year, superseding earlier 2025 FAA-pilot timelines.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-06 notes final assembly of the first conforming aircraft has commenced and 70% completion of Stage 4 on Joby’s side.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Demonstrate piloted eVTOL operations between two public airports in FAA‑controlled airspace (12‑minute OAR–MRY flight over 10 nm with ATC sequencing) to signal operational readiness.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The flight was completed as described, including integration into ATC sequencing and holding patterns in controlled airspace. This directly fulfills the commitment and provides strong operational proof.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-15 confirms completion of the piloted eVTOL flight from Marina (OAR) to Monterey (MRY) under FAA-controlled airspace with traffic sequencing.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Begin final assembly of the first aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization flight testing as one of the last major certification steps.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Final assembly commenced and aligns with previously stated 2025 conforming-aircraft objectives. Supports the path toward pilot-on-board testing.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-06/08 confirms final assembly of the first TIA aircraft has commenced, with pilot flights expected to start in 2025.

Commitment: August 06, 2025: Report stage‑four type certification progress at 70% on Joby’s side and over 50% on the FAA’s side to advance toward TIA flights.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The company reported 70% Stage 4 completion (Joby side) and >50% FAA acceptance of test plans, indicating robust progress within Stage 4.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-06 reports 70% Stage 4 completion by Joby and more than half of FAA test plans accepted.

Commitment: May 07, 2025: Achieve routine pilot‑on‑board transition flights from hover to wingborne cruise and back to support certification readiness.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Transition with pilot onboard moved from first achievement to routine operations, substantiating aircraft maturity for next-phase testing.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-05-07 confirms routine pilot-on-board transition flights in the test program and links this milestone to readiness for TIA flights.

Commitment: December 20, 2024: Target the start of TIA flight testing in 2025 as part of the final certification phase.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Newer guidance shifts FAA pilot-on-board flight testing to early 2026, superseding the 2025 TIA flight start target. While company pilot flights of conforming aircraft are still expected in 2025, FAA-pilot TIA timing has slipped.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-12 states FAA pilot-on-board testing will begin early 2026, superseding the 2025 TIA start target.* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-20 targeted TIA flight testing start in 2025.

Commitment: December 17, 2024: Complete major aerostructure tests required for FAA type certification.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: For-credit static load tests on major aerostructures (tail) were completed with FAA present, meeting this testing milestone.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-17 confirms completion of major aerostructure tests for certification credit.

Cluster: Manufacturing and Production Scale‑Up

Commitment: September 12, 2025: Expand manufacturing to double U.S. production capacity to up to 24 aircraft per year across 435,000 square feet, superseding similar August–July 2025 disclosures.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Multiple updates indicate expanded Marina capacity and intent to reach up to 24 aircraft/year. Facilities footprint and staffing expansion support the target.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-12 reiterates plans to double capacity to up to 24 aircraft/year across 435,000 sq ft.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-06 and 2025-07-15 notes the expanded Marina facility and expectation to produce up to 24 aircraft/year.

Commitment: September 12, 2025: Ramp up manufacturing facilities in Dayton, Ohio to support large‑scale aircraft production, building on July 2025 plans to reach up to 500 aircraft per year.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Renovation and component manufacturing/testing at Dayton are progressing, aligning with long-term scale plans.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-12 confirms ramping manufacturing in Dayton.* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-15 describes a newly renovated facility in Dayton to manufacture and test components, with eventual plans up to 500 aircraft/year.

Commitment: July 15, 2025: Add hundreds of full‑time jobs as the expanded Marina, California facility becomes operational to support increased aircraft production.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Announcement details operational expansion and associated hiring to support increased production.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-15 states the expanded Marina facility becomes operational and anticipates adding hundreds of jobs.

Commitment: July 15, 2025: Continue close collaboration with Toyota engineers to streamline assembly and optimize manufacturing processes.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Collaboration deepened through funding and manufacturing alliance steps; Joby cites Toyota methodologies in scaling.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-27 confirms closing of a $250M Toyota investment to support certification and production.* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-15 highlights leveraging Toyota manufacturing methodologies.

Commitment: May 07, 2025: Take handover of the expanded Marina facility in June 2025 to more than double the manufacturing footprint and support pilot training and maintenance facilities.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: By July, the expanded Marina facility is operational; this indicates handover occurred as planned.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-15 confirms the expanded Marina site is operational, implying successful June handover.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-07 anticipated June handover.

Cluster: Market Entry, Platform Integration, and Commercial Operations

Commitment: September 10, 2025: Integrate Blade’s air mobility services into the Uber app so riders can book Blade flights directly as soon as next year.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Integration plan publicly announced, targeted for next year. Supports broader platform strategy.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-10 announces plan to bring Blade’s services into the Uber app as soon as next year.

Commitment: August 29, 2025: Continue Blade’s passenger operations as a wholly‑owned subsidiary while preparing to introduce Joby’s eVTOL into service once certified, superseding the planned acquisition announced August 4, 2025.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Acquisition closed and Blade’s passenger business continues under Joby; plan supersedes the earlier announcement.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-29 confirms closing the acquisition and continuing Blade’s operations as a wholly-owned subsidiary, superseding the 2025-08-04 agreement announcement.

Commitment: August 29, 2025: Integrate Blade’s network and user base into Joby’s apps and services over time to expand access to quiet air travel.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Acquisition complete; integration is planned and progressing, with Uber-app integration also announced. Full integration remains in progress.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-10 outlines Uber-app integration for Blade services next year.* A recent update from 2025-08-29 states intent to integrate Blade’s network into Joby’s apps over time.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Launch commercial passenger service domestically after certification, beginning in Los Angeles and New York City.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Certification not yet achieved; demonstration flights and platform build (Blade acquisition, Uber integration) support future launch in LA/NYC.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-15 reiterates post-cert launch plans in LA and NYC.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-29/09-10 shows platform and network integration steps underway.

Commitment: August 10, 2025: Target carrying first passengers in 2026, superseding prior late‑2025/early‑2026 guidance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple sources now align to 2026 passenger operations, superseding earlier timelines.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-10 sets 2026 as the target for first passengers, superseding late-2025/early-2026 guidance.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 indicates anticipated Dubai passenger service in 2026.

Commitment: August 05, 2025: Establish a joint venture to provide air taxi service in Japan in the coming years, planning deployment of more than 100 aircraft and public demo flights October 1–13, 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: JV expansion with ANA and October demo flights announced; as of the latest date, demos are scheduled and ecosystem build-out is planned.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-05 announces JV intent with >100 aircraft and demo flights Oct 1–13, 2025.

Commitment: June 30, 2025: Advance commercial readiness in Dubai with anticipated passenger service in 2026 and six years of exclusive operating rights.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Exclusive rights, vertiport construction, and piloted flights in Dubai support 2026 start.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-06-30 confirms market readiness efforts, Q1 2026 vertiport completion, and six-year exclusivity.

Commitment: June 03, 2025: Explore a distribution agreement in Saudi Arabia for up to 200 aircraft (~$1B) and collaborate to launch local air taxi services.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: MoU signed with Abdul Latif Jameel to explore distribution and services; early-stage but active.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-06-03 confirms an MoU to explore delivery of up to 200 aircraft and local services.

Commitment: May 07, 2025: Launch air taxi service in the UK in partnership with Virgin Atlantic, starting with regional and city connections.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Partnership announced; regulatory engagement and infrastructure planning underway with Virgin. Launch contingent on certification.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-15/05-07 confirms partnership with Virgin Atlantic to launch UK services and develop landing infrastructure.

Commitment: December 13, 2024: Pursue launch of air taxi operations in South Korea following successful K‑UAM Grand Challenge flight tests.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Successful participation in Korea’s program and ongoing engagement with regulators and partners support future launch.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-13 confirms successful K-UAM Grand Challenge flights and commercialization intent in Korea.

Cluster: Defense, Autonomy, and Government Programs

Commitment: September 03, 2025: Pursue long‑term development of dual‑use technologies (Superpilot) applicable to defense and commercial markets.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Landmark autonomous exercise (REFORPAC) completed with >7,000 miles autonomous operations; validates ongoing dual-use development trajectory.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-03 details Superpilot demonstrations across multiple mission profiles and airspace classes.

Commitment: September 03, 2025: Position to compete for upcoming Department of Defense autonomous and hybrid aircraft programs aligned with the FY26 budget outlook.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Successful REFORPAC participation strengthens competitive positioning ahead of FY26 programs.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-03 states the exercise positions Joby to compete for DoD programs.

Commitment: September 03, 2025: Use lessons from defense exercises to inform integration of autonomous capabilities into the commercial air taxi platform.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Company explicitly notes lessons from REFORPAC will inform commercial platform integration.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-03 highlights leveraging defense exercise learnings for commercial integration.

Commitment: September 03, 2025: Move toward field deployment of dual‑use autonomous technologies following a landmark U.S. defense exercise.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Post-exercise posture indicates progression toward field deployment; further milestones expected as programs mature.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-03 characterizes the exercise as a significant step toward field deployment.

Commitment: September 03, 2025: Accelerate autonomous flight technology development following the June 2024 acquisition of Xwing’s autonomy division.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Demonstrated autonomous operations at scale are consistent with accelerated development post-acquisition.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-03 links Superpilot progress to the 2024 acquisition of Xwing’s autonomy division.

Commitment: August 01, 2025: Collaborate with L3Harris on a gas turbine hybrid VTOL for defense, targeting flight testing in fall 2025 and operational demonstrations in 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Collaboration announced with clear test and demo timelines; no contrary updates.

Progress:* An update from 2025-08-01 announces the L3Harris collaboration with fall 2025 flight testing and 2026 demos planned.

Commitment: August 01, 2025: Demonstrate and deploy dual‑purpose technologies with DoD partners with readiness for 2026 demonstrations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Defense roadmap and Superpilot progress align with 2026 demonstration readiness.

Progress:* An update from 2025-08-01 underscores readiness for 2026 demonstrations with DoD partners.

Commitment: August 01, 2025: Advance a gas turbine hybrid powertrain on the S4 platform, citing an industry‑first 561‑mile hydrogen‑electric hybrid flight.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Prior 561-mile hybrid flight and ongoing hybrid development on S4 support this commitment.

Progress:* An update from 2025-08-01 cites the 561-mile hybrid flight and continued hybrid powertrain advancement.* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26 reiterates the 561-mile hybrid flight milestone.

Commitment: August 10, 2025: Expand contracts with the Department of Defense and other U.S. government agencies, emphasizing autonomy and hybrid aircraft.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Company states active pursuit/expansion; however, specific new contract awards are not detailed in recent disclosures.

Progress:* An update from 2025-08-10 indicates pursuit and expansion of government contracts focused on autonomy and hybrid aircraft.* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26/08-06 highlights defense collaborations but without explicit new contract counts.

Commitment: December 05, 2024: Provide electric aircraft maintenance training for U.S. Air Force personnel under AFWERX Agility Prime to enhance in‑house programs.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Training program completed with USAF participants, fulfilling the commitment and advancing readiness.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-05 confirms completion of USAF maintenance training.

Cluster: Regulatory, Safety, and Training

Commitment: September 12, 2025: Participate in the White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program to begin limited operations in select markets ahead of full FAA certification.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Participation announced with intent to commence limited operations via eIPP prior to full certification.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-12 confirms participation in the eIPP to begin limited operations.

Commitment: September 12, 2025: Engage with state and local eIPP applicants and potential partners during the 180‑day project selection window.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Company signals active engagement with multiple states and partners during the selection window.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-12 states ongoing collaboration with states and solicitation of eIPP partnerships over the next 180 days.

Commitment: September 12, 2025: Work closely with federal, state, and local regulators and communities across multiple states to introduce eVTOL technology.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Broad regulatory engagement continues, reinforced by eIPP participation.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-09-12 highlights active work with regulators and communities across multiple states.

Commitment: December 03, 2024: Establish a pipeline of qualified pilots via FAA Part 141 approval for the Joby Aviation Academy in advance of commercial operations.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Part 141 certification received; academy positioned to build pilot pipeline.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 confirms Part 141 approval for the Flight Academy.

Commitment: December 03, 2024: Implement a Safety Management System for air operations ahead of the FAA’s Part 135 compliance deadline.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: SMS acceptance under FAA Part 5 achieved; supports proactive safety compliance.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 confirms acceptance into the FAA Part 5 SMS program for air operations.

Commitment: December 03, 2024: Expand Flight Academy courses and enrollment over the coming years to support workforce needs.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Part 141 certification enables expansion; continued growth planned but not yet detailed.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 notes intent to grow courses and enrollment over coming years.

Commitment: October 22, 2024: Achieve type certification under the new FAA SFAR and enhance pilot training using high‑fidelity simulators aligned with the rule.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: SFAR was published enabling operations, but type certification has not been achieved; training alignment is underway. The certification portion remains outstanding.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-10-22 confirms SFAR publication enabling operations but does not indicate type certification completion.* Recent certification updates (2025-08-06/09-12) show ongoing Stage 4 progress, not completion.

Cluster: Infrastructure and Ecosystem Build‑Out

Commitment: June 30, 2025: Construct the first commercial vertiport at Dubai International Airport with Skyports Infrastructure, on track for completion in Q1 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Construction underway with targeted Q1 2026 completion, consistent with Dubai service readiness.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-06-30 confirms construction is underway and on track for Q1 2026 completion.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-12 announced start of vertiport construction at DXB.

Commitment: December 10, 2024: Install the Global Electric Aviation Charging System (GEACS) at Jetex sites to support Middle East operations and enable seamless connectivity.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Partnership announced with plans to install GEACS; installation status not yet confirmed as complete.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-10 outlines plans to install GEACS at Jetex locations; no subsequent completion update provided.

Commitment: November 12, 2024: Develop an initial network of four vertiports in Dubai integrated with the multimodal transport system, with three additional sites planned.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: DXB vertiport construction has begun, and plans for additional sites remain active within the Dubai network build-out.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-12 confirms initial vertiport network plans and DXB site groundbreaking.

Commitment: August 05, 2025: Accelerate Japan’s air taxi ecosystem by establishing vertiports, pilot training, and maintenance support with local and national partners.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: JV and public demos are planned; ecosystem build elements (vertiports, training, MRO) are in planning/early execution phases.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-05 announces plans to establish ecosystem components in Japan alongside public demos.

Commitment: June 03, 2025: Establish aftermarket services including MRO and pilot training in Saudi Arabia in support of potential aircraft distribution.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: MoU includes aftermarket services intent; concrete establishment milestones not yet reported.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-06-03 details the MoU scope including MRO and pilot training for Saudi Arabia.

Commitment: March 15, 2025: Build support for landing infrastructure at key UK airports in partnership with Virgin Atlantic.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Partnership includes infrastructure development; detailed site activations pending certification schedules.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-15 confirms collaboration with Virgin Atlantic to develop landing locations in the UK.

Cluster: Business Model, R&D, and Software Systems

Commitment: August 10, 2025: Increase investment in research and development as staffing grows to advance aircraft engineering and software.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: R&D spending increased 21% YoY in Q2 2025, driven by personnel increases in engineering and software, directly matching the commitment.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-10 reports R&D up 21% in Q2 2025 due to staffing for engineering and software.

Commitment: August 10, 2025: Build a vertically integrated company that manufactures, operates, and sells eVTOL aircraft targeting high utilization and reduced turnaround times.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Strategy consistently articulated (operate, sell, and partnered services). Pre-launch metrics targeted, with manufacturing expansion and platform integrations supporting vertical integration.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-10 reiterates vertically integrated model and increased R&D.* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27/05-07 outlines core operating metrics post-launch and manufacturing expansion.

Commitment: August 04, 2025: Integrate Joby’s ElevateOS software tools into Blade’s operations to improve cost efficiency and passenger experience.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Acquisition of Blade closed; Uber-app integration announced. Specific ElevateOS deployment into Blade operations not yet confirmed publicly.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-29 confirms Blade passenger business acquisition completion.* A recent update from 2025-09-10 announces Uber-app integration for Blade services; ElevateOS deployment status not specified.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Maintain high daily utilization and reduced turnaround times as core operating metrics post‑launch under the vertically integrated model.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Pre-launch commitment; no passenger operations yet, so utilization/turnaround metrics cannot be demonstrated.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 sets these as post-launch metrics; no subsequent operational data yet due to pending certification.

Cluster: Capital, Funding, and Financial Discipline

Commitment: August 06, 2025: Manage cash usage prudently with an estimated $500–$540 million use in 2025 and quarter‑end cash and investments of $991 million.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Q2 update confirms $991M cash and expected 2025 cash use $500–$540M, consistent with disciplined cash planning.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-06 reports $991M cash and short-term investments and 2025 cash use guidance of $500–$540M.

Commitment: May 27, 2025: Close a $250 million investment from Toyota to support certification and commercial production as part of a strategic manufacturing alliance.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Transaction closed, deepening the Toyota alliance and supporting certification/production.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-05-27 confirms closing of the $250M Toyota investment.

Commitment: February 26, 2025: Secure more than $1 billion of additional funding and commitments in Q4 2024 to support scaling and certification.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Company reported >$1B in additional funding and commitments, including Toyota’s $500M.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26 confirms >$1B of additional funding and commitments in Q4 2024.

Commitment: October 25, 2024: Use $202 million of gross proceeds from a public equity offering to fund certification and manufacturing, prepare for commercial operations, and for general corporate purposes.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Offering completed; proceeds designated for certification, manufacturing, and operations prep, consistent with subsequent scaling activities.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-10-25 confirms $202M gross proceeds from the offering for certification, manufacturing, and operations preparation.