JOBY

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: Integrate Blade’s air mobility services into the Uber app

Certainty: 80% | Timing: 2026 (“as soon as next year” from Sep 2025)Impact: Expands demand funnel and lowers customer acquisition costs by enabling Uber users to book Blade flights; establishes a marketing and operational on-ramp for Joby’s eVTOL service.Reasoning: Stated plan to integrate Blade services into Uber app “as soon as next year” following Joby’s acquisition of Blade’s passenger business (Press Release, Published 2025-09-10, Business Developments). Acquisition completion confirmed earlier (Press Release, 2025-08-29, Business Developments). No later document rescinds this; timing reflects the most recent statement.

Catalyst: Launch commercial air taxi operations in Dubai

Certainty: 70% | Timing: 2026Impact: First scaled commercial revenue opportunity; validates business model with six-year exclusive rights; showcases service integration with airport and city transport.Reasoning: Company targets passenger operations in Dubai in 2026, with first vertiport at DXB expected to complete in Q1 2026 (Press Release, 2025-06-30, Business Developments & Outlook). Earlier guidance of “as soon as late 2025” (Press Release, 2024-11-12) is superseded by the newer 2025-06-30 document; we follow the most recent timing.

Catalyst: Achieve production run-rate of up to 24 aircraft per year via expanded Marina, CA and ramp in Dayton, OH

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Capacity scaling to support initial market entries and early deliveries; potential operating leverage improvements.Reasoning: Plan to double production capacity to up to 24 aircraft/year across 435,000 sq ft in Marina with Dayton ramp underway (Press Release, 2025-09-12, Business Developments). Prior expansion details and state support documented (Press Release, 2025-07-15, Business Developments & Financial Performance). No later document indicates completion of the targeted run-rate.

Catalyst: Install GEACS charging at Jetex terminals to support Middle East air taxi ops

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Operational readiness and reliability for Middle East routes; potential partnership-driven network effects for premium and inter-emirate services.Reasoning: Announced plan to integrate Joby service into Jetex’s private terminal network and install GEACS at Jetex locations (Press Release, 2024-12-10, Business Developments & Outlook). No newer update confirming completion; remains pending enablement for Dubai launch.

Catalyst: Potential U.S. DoD program awards leveraging Superpilot autonomy

Certainty: 45% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Non-dilutive revenue, validation of autonomy stack, and dual-use leverage for future commercial offerings.Reasoning: “Positions Joby to compete for upcoming DoD programs” after completing 7,000+ miles across 40+ hours in REFORPAC exercise (Press Release, 2025-09-03, Outlook). This is opportunity-stage only; no award announced in subsequent documents.

Regulatory Events

Catalyst: White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) project selections and early-ops authorization in select U.S. markets

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Within ~180 days of 2025-09-12Impact: Enables limited early operations before full FAA certification; high visibility market entries with government backing.Reasoning: Joby to participate in the White House eIPP to begin operations in select markets ahead of full FAA certification; “applications open; projects chosen in next 180 days” (Press Release, 2025-09-12, Business Developments & Outlook). Project selection outcomes pending; no newer document updates these selections.

Catalyst: Complete FAA Type Certification Stage 4 and advance to Stage 5

Certainty: 85% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Critical gating milestone to type certification; unlocks for-credit flight testing progression and investor confidence.Reasoning: Management reported “moving through stage 4 of 5” (Press Release, 2025-09-12, Business Developments) and “70% complete on its side of stage four” (Q2 2025 Financial Results, 2025-08-06, Business Developments). No newer document indicates completion; progress remains pending.

Catalyst: Obtain UAE General Civil Aviation Authority Air Operator Certificate (AOC)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Mandatory for commercial ops in Dubai; prerequisite to monetize exclusive operating rights.Reasoning: Company stated it is in process of obtaining an AOC from the UAE GCAA (Press Release, 2024-12-10, Financial Performance; Press Release, 2024-11-12, Financial Performance & Outlook). Later Dubai updates (2025-06-30) focus on vertiport construction and 2026 operations; no confirmation of AOC issuance to date.

Testing and Development

Catalyst: First flight of a FAA-conforming aircraft (start of TIA aircraft pilot flights)

Certainty: 85% | Timing: 2025Impact: Major de-risking of design and manufacturing readiness; enables for-credit flight test tempo.Reasoning: “Expecting first FAA-conforming aircraft this year” and “ready to begin operations ahead of full certification” (Press Release, 2025-09-12, Business Developments & Outlook). Company had commenced final assembly and remained on track for pilot flights in 2025 (Press Release, 2025-08-06, Business Developments; Q2 2025 Results, 2025-08-06, Business Developments). Most recent doc confirms 2025 timing.

Catalyst: Begin TIA flight testing with FAA pilots onboard

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Early 2026Impact: Validates safety and performance under FAA oversight; pivotal step toward type certification and U.S. service readiness.Reasoning: “Begin flight testing with FAA pilots onboard early next year” (Press Release, 2025-09-12, Outlook). Earlier documents targeted TIA flight testing in 2025 (Press Release, 2024-12-20), but the newer 2025-09-12 timing for FAA-pilot flights (early 2026) governs.

Catalyst: L3Harris hybrid VTOL flight testing

Certainty: 80% | Timing: Fall 2025Impact: Opens defense/ISR and long-range mission markets; diversifies platform with hybrid powertrain and autonomy.Reasoning: Flight testing “expected to begin in fall 2025,” with operational demonstrations in 2026, for a gas turbine hybrid VTOL capable of crewed and fully autonomous ops (Press Release, 2025-08-01, Business Developments & Outlook; reiterated in Q2 2025 Results, 2025-08-06).

Catalyst: L3Harris hybrid VTOL operational demonstrations

Certainty: 75% | Timing: 2026Impact: Customer-facing demos that can catalyze procurement decisions; validates missionization with L3Harris.Reasoning: Operational demonstrations planned for 2026 (Press Release, 2025-08-01, Outlook). No later update alters this timeline.

Catalyst: Public demonstration flights in Japan (EXPO 2025 Osaka)

Certainty: 90% | Timing: October 1, 2025Impact: High-profile showcase to regulators and partners; advances ecosystem development for Japanese rollout.Reasoning: ANA-branded Joby aircraft public demonstration flights to begin Oct. 1 at EXPO 2025 Osaka (Press Release, 2025-08-05, Business Developments & Outlook). No subsequent document revises this.

Funding Opportunities

Catalyst: Close the second $250 million tranche from Toyota (completing the $500 million strategic investment)

Certainty: 65% | Timing: 2025 (not further specified)Impact: Extends cash runway and supports certification/production scaling; reduces funding overhang risk.Reasoning: First $250 million tranche closed (Q2 2025 Results, 2025-08-06, Financial Performance; Press Release, 2025-05-27). Original plan was two equal tranches with the second in 2025 (Press Release, 2024-10-02, Business Developments). No later document confirms closing of the second tranche; thus remains pending.

Market Dynamics

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Shareholder Actions

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Strategic Transactions

Catalyst: Establish and launch a joint venture with ANA Holdings to deploy >100 Joby aircraft in Japan

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified (phased rollout starting in Tokyo; demos Oct 2025)Impact: Large multi-year deployment opportunity; amplifies international market access with a flagship airline partner.Reasoning: Parties “intend to establish a joint venture” and “deploy more than 100 Joby aircraft in a phased rollout starting in Tokyo” (Press Release, 2025-08-05, Business Developments & Outlook). Public demos are scheduled (Testing & Development above), but JV formation and deployment timing not yet finalized in later documents.

Catalyst: Advance Saudi Arabia distribution MoU toward definitive agreement and initial orders (up to 200 aircraft)

Certainty: 40% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Potential >$1B multi-year aircraft and services pipeline; expands regional footprint and MRO/services opportunities.Reasoning: MoU with Abdul Latif Jameel to explore distribution of up to 200 aircraft and services (~$1B) (Press Release, 2025-06-03, Business Developments & Financial Performance). No later document upgrades this to a definitive agreement; remains exploratory.

Other Key Events

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.