OKLO

1. Entity Frequency and Category Focus

Recent disclosures (most weight on 2025-11-11 filings/call) show a clear pivot to vertically integrated fuel-cycle execution, accelerated first-of-a-kind deployment at INL, and transatlantic fuel partnerships.

Increase in Organizations

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) / Programs: Reactor Pilot Program (RPP); Advanced Nuclear Fuel Line Pilot Program

• Multiple selections including 3 RPP projects and Fuel Line Pilot selections tied to the Tennessee fuel campus.
• DOE Idaho Operations Office advanced approvals (e.g., NSDA for A3F).

Shift observed: Expanded federal support and de-risking via program selections and facility-level approvals.

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) / Battelle Energy Alliance (BEA)

• Ground-breaking and earthworks for Aurora-INL; expanded collaboration for advanced fuels/materials and fast-neutron irradiation testing.

Shift observed: INL is the operational hub for near-term deployment and R&D/irradiation work.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)

• Accelerated review acceptance of the Principal Design Criteria topical report; licensed-operator framework topical report under review; COLA Phase 1 timing reaffirmed.

Shift observed: Regulatory pathway maturing, supporting schedule credibility.

newcleo and Blykalla

• Strategic partnership and potential capital via a newcleo-affiliated vehicle; transatlantic technology and fuel-ecosystem collaboration with Blykalla.

Shift observed: Broadening fuel/manufacturing ecosystem and optionality for capital.

Centrus Energy and Hexium

• Named as enrichers/technology providers (including AVLIS/Atlas) for HALEU/advanced enrichment.

Shift observed: Greater focus on diversified enrichment sources to mitigate HALEU risk.

Increase in Financial Terms

$1.2 billion cash and marketable securities (Q3 2025); $540 million ATM proceeds; $1.68 billion Advanced Fuel Center; potential $2 billion newcleo investment

• Liquidity up sharply with sequential capital raises; large Tennessee campus CapEx signaled; external strategic capital interest.

Shift observed: Balance sheet strengthened to fund fuel-cycle build-out; capex profile rising.

Increase in Products and Technologies

Advanced Fuel Center (Tennessee) and Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility (A3F); recycling and metal fuel

• DOE Fuel Line Pilot selection; NSDA approval for A3F; recycling-first phase of Tennessee campus.

Shift observed: Execution emphasis moving from concept to facility build and licensing.

Aurora-INL; fast-neutron irradiation testing; component procurement

• Earthworks, blasting/excavation schedule; procurement of pumps, handling machines, trip systems.

Shift observed: First-of-a-kind plant progress advancing from site prep to hardware.

Pluto test reactor and VIPR isotope reactor (Atomic Alchemy)

• Targets in 2026 for testing and isotope production; radioisotope business expansion.

Shift observed: Parallel R&D/isotope revenue lanes complement power strategy.

Increase in Locations

Idaho (INL/Aurora-INL); Tennessee (Oak Ridge fuel campus); mention of Texas for pilot activities

• Idaho as deployment/R&D center; Tennessee as recycling/fuel hub; Texas as ancillary pilot location.

Shift observed: U.S.-centric siting strategy with multi-state execution.

2. New vs. Receding Entities

New Entities

Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility (A3F) – Nuclear Safety Design Agreement (NSDA)

• DOE approval announced, enabling fuel manufacturing tied to Aurora-INL.

Shift observed: Regulatory milestone that de-risks initial core fabrication.

Advanced Fuel Center (Tennessee) / Fuel Recycling Facility

• Up to $1.68 billion first-phase investment; DOE Fuel Line Pilot selection; ~800 jobs expected.

Shift observed: Stronger vertical integration and potential long-term cost advantage via recycling.

newcleo (affiliated investment vehicle) and Blykalla

• Strategic partnerships to advance U.S. fuel ecosystem and transatlantic tech/fuel collaboration; potential $2 billion investment.

Shift observed: Added capital optionality and shared supply-chain development.

Pluto test reactor

• 2026 “turn-on” target for fast-neutron capabilities and plutonium-fuel testing.

Shift observed: Internal test capability to accelerate licensing/fuel validation.

Fast-neutron irradiation testing at Aurora-INL

• Formalized role for in-reactor experiments to cut costs and improve fuel manufacturing.

Shift observed: Monetizable R&D/testing services and faster design-learning cycles.

Centrus Energy and Hexium (AVLIS/Atlas)

• Enrichment providers discussed as part of HALEU/advanced fuel strategy.

Shift observed: Multi-source enrichment pathway to mitigate fuel-supply risk.

Receding Entities

Switch (12 GW Master Power Agreement)

• Prominent in 2024; only indirectly referenced via “14 GW” pipeline later.

Shift observed: Customer pipeline remains cited, but entity-specific emphasis has shifted to government programs and fuel facilities.

Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP)

• Collaboration noted in May 2025; limited mentions in most recent disclosures.

Shift observed: U.S.-centric execution taking precedence near term.

Lightbridge

• MOUs in early/mid-2025; fewer recent mentions amid Oklo-led fuel-campus focus.

Shift observed: Priority on Oklo-owned fuel facilities versus co-location concepts.

RPower and other balance-of-plant partners

• Early 2025 visibility; limited recurrence in latest updates.

Shift observed: Focus narrowed to nuclear core/fuel milestones and federal programs.

3. Financial and Quantitative Shifts

Increased/Reduced Liquidity and Operating Profile

Cash & Marketable Securities: $1.2 billion (Q3 2025) vs. ~$683 million (Q2 2025) vs. $260.7 million (Q1 2025)

• Sequential step-up driven by equity raises including $540 million ATM in Q3 and June follow-on (~$400–$460 million).

Shift observed: Stronger runway to fund site work, procurement, and fuel facilities.

Operating Loss: $36.3 million (Q3 2025) vs. $28.0 million (Q2 2025) vs. $17.9 million (Q1 2025)

• Growth-phase spending increasing (includes $9.1 million Q3 non-cash SBC).

Shift observed: Scaling costs consistent with build-own-operate model ramp.

Cash Used in Operations: $48.7 million YTD (through Q3 2025); FY25 guidance $65–$80 million

• Guidance unchanged; trajectory within range.

Shift observed: Opex burn remains controlled relative to liquidity.

Capital Programs and Potential Investments

Advanced Fuel Center (Tennessee): up to $1.68 billion

• First-phase recycling facility; DOE-backed pilot lines.

Shift observed: Major capex commitment to secure fuel cost/supply advantages.

newcleo potential investment: up to $2 billion

• Via an affiliated vehicle to support U.S. fuel ecosystem.

Shift observed: Prospective external capital for fuel-cycle expansion.

Fuel and Materials Metrics

5 tonnes initial core fuel (from EBR-II material); bridge supply up to 20 tons plutonium (~180 metric tons Aurora fuel equivalent)

• Government-facilitated tranche for early units.

Shift observed: Near-term fuel pathway reduces HALEU dependency risk.

Backlog/Capacity References

~14 GW pipeline; unit sizing up to 75 MWe

• Commercial traction across defense and data centers; Eielson AFB NOITA progressing.

Shift observed: Demand visibility; monetization depends on COD execution.

Ambiguities/Flags

• Q2 call cites “$3.8 billion net interest income”—likely a transcript/error; context suggests a far smaller figure (potentially $3.8 million). Treat as ambiguous and not decision-grade.
• Several press releases list “None” for financial terms; absence of figures should not be construed as lack of progress.

4. Product/Technology Development

Aurora-INL (fast, sodium-cooled; metal fuel)

• Ground-breaking (Sep 22); earthworks (Oct 27); controlled blasting (mid-Nov); excavation completion targeted early Jan 2026; key components (pumps, handling, trip systems) procured.

Shift observed: Transition from planning to physical execution, bolstering schedule credibility for late 2027–early 2028 operations.

A3F (Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility) and Advanced Fuel Center (Tennessee)

• NSDA approval (DOE) for A3F at INL; Tennessee recycling-first phase selected under Fuel Line Pilots; modern electrochemical recycling processes highlighted.

Shift observed: Vertical integration to secure supply, lower LCOE, and open fuel-services revenue.

Test and Isotope Platforms: Pluto and VIPR

• Pluto test reactor target (Jun/Jul 2026) for fast-neutron/plutonium fuel R&D; VIPR mid-2026 for radioisotopes; INL irradiation campaigns planned.

Shift observed: Accelerated learning cycles and diversified revenue via isotopes/irradiation services.

Regulatory/Licensing

• NRC acceptance of Principal Design Criteria topical report; Licensed Operator Framework topical report under review; pre-application readiness completed; COLA Phase 1 planned in Q4 2025.

Shift observed: Regulatory cadence aligning with construction and fuel-fab milestones.

Enrichment and Fuel Options

• Named pathways via Centrus and Hexium (AVLIS/Atlas); government supply of plutonium for early cores; HALEU pricing/supply risk mitigations discussed.

Shift observed: Multi-pronged fuel strategy to de-risk first units and scale.

5. Relational Changes Between Entities

Government Selections and Approvals

Oklo – DOE / DOE Idaho Operations Office – INL

• RPP selections (3 of 11 awards), Fuel Line Pilot selections, NSDA approval for A3F, active site-use and programmatic support.

Shift observed: Strengthened federal alignment and funding pathways.

Lab and Site Partnerships

Oklo – INL / BEA

• Expanded collaboration for advanced fuels/materials and fast-neutron irradiation using Aurora-INL.

Shift observed: Deepening R&D/qualification capabilities tied to first plant.

Strategic Capital and Technology Alliances

Oklo – newcleo – Blykalla

• Strategic partnership to build U.S. fuel ecosystem; potential $2 billion investment via newcleo affiliate; technology and supply-chain synergies with Blykalla.

Shift observed: Augmented financing and fuel-tech depth across the Atlantic.

EPC and Construction

Oklo – Kiewit Nuclear Solutions Co.

• Lead constructor for Aurora-INL; ground-breaking completed; site works underway.

Shift observed: Execution partner in place supporting schedule.

Grid/Automation and Data Center Ecosystem

Oklo – ABB

• MOU and digital monitoring room for operator training/licensing preparation.

Shift observed: Operational readiness and digitalization focus.

Oklo – Vertiv

• Joint power and thermal solutions for hyperscale/colo data centers.

Shift observed: Targeted integration for data center customers.

Offtake and Customers

Oklo – Defense Logistics Agency Energy / U.S. Air Force (Eielson AFB)

• Notice of Intent to Award for a long-term PPA.

Shift observed: Early utility-scale offtake in defense sector.

Oklo – Switch / Equinix

• Non-binding 12 GW MPA with Switch (Dec 2024); Equinix referenced as a prospective customer.

Shift observed: Large data-center demand remains a core commercial thesis.

Enrichment and Fuel Supply

Oklo – Centrus Energy / Hexium

• Mentioned as enrichment partners/technologies considered for HALEU and advanced fuel.

Shift observed: Diversified enrichment optionality to manage supply and cost.

Additional Collaborations

Oklo – TVA

• Supportive posture for the Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center site (Oak Ridge/Tennessee Valley region).

Shift observed: Regional utility alignment for fuel campus siting.

Oklo – KHNP

• Cooperation framework (May 2025) on advanced nuclear.

Shift observed: International collaboration present but less central in latest updates.

Oklo – Lightbridge

• MOUs to evaluate co-location and advanced fuel recycling efforts.

Shift observed: Exploratory collaboration; execution emphasis currently on Oklo-led facilities.