OKLO

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: Execute long-term PPA and final award for Eielson Air Force Base microreactor pilot

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Material revenue visibility from a long-term power purchase agreement; first-of-kind defense reference plant supporting broader federal pipeline
Reasoning: Notice of Intent to Award identifies Oklo as intended awardee to design, construct, own, and operate a plant at Eielson AFB under a long-term PPA (Press release, 2025-06-11; Business Developments). Subsequent Q2’25 call reiterated intended award status (Earnings call, 2025-08-11; Business Developments). No later document confirms contract execution, so this remains pending.

Catalyst: Convert Switch 12 GW Master Power Agreement into binding site-specific PPAs

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Potential multi-gigawatt revenue pipeline; strengthens offtake visibility for early and follow-on units
Reasoning: Non-binding Master Power Agreement for up to 12 GW to “deploy advanced nuclear power” with intent to finalize binding agreements as milestones are reached (Press release, 2024-12-18; Business Developments/Outlook). No newer document supersedes or confirms conversion to binding contracts.

Catalyst: Convert up to 750 MW of LOIs with two data center providers into binding PPAs

Certainty: 55% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Significant incremental contracted demand; supports scale-up and financing optionality
Reasoning: LOIs for up to 750 MW of low-carbon power to U.S. data centers (Press release, 2024-11-13; Business Developments). Later documents do not confirm conversion; remains a pending commercial milestone.

Catalyst: Achieve commercial operations at Aurora-INL (first unit) targeted for late 2027–early 2028

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Late 2027–Early 2028
Impact: First recurring power revenues; major de-risking of technology, licensing, and constructability; enables fleet replication
Reasoning: Management targets COD between late 2027 and early 2028 (Earnings call, 2025-08-11; Outlook). Groundbreaking occurred on 2025-09-22 (Press release, 2025-09-22; Business Developments), confirming construction start; no later doc revises COD.

Catalyst: Potential TVA collaboration on used fuel recycling and regional power sales (Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center)

Certainty: 45% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Could secure feedstock and regional customers; supports economics of fuel recycling facility
Reasoning: Oklo is “exploring collaboration with TVA to recycle TVA’s used fuel and evaluate potential power sales” (Press release, 2025-09-04; Business Developments/Outlook). No further confirmation in later documents; remains exploratory.

Regulatory Events

Catalyst: Submit Phase One of Aurora-INL Combined License Application (COLA)

Certainty: 85% | Timing: Early Q4 2025
Impact: Critical licensing inflection; starts formal NRC review, de-risking schedule for first plant
Reasoning: Company expects to file Phase One after incorporating NRC feedback (Earnings call, 2025-08-11; Outlook). Earlier 2025-07-17 release also stated plan to submit within the year (Press release, 2025-07-17; Outlook). No later document reports filing; thus still pending, with the 2025-08-11 timing taking precedence as more recent.

Catalyst: NRC issues draft safety evaluation on Oklo’s Principal Design Criteria topical report

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Early 2026
Impact: Platform-level licensing de-risking; enables referencing PDC in future applications and reduces duplicative review
Reasoning: NRC accepted PDC topical report for review under accelerated timeline; NRC expects a draft evaluation in early 2026 (Press release, 2025-09-30; Business Developments/Outlook). No subsequent document changes this expectation.

Catalyst: Complete remaining DOE authorization steps to fabricate initial core at Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility (A3F) at INL

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Enables fuel availability for first core; removes a critical-path risk to initial unit schedule
Reasoning: Two of four DOE authorization steps completed; remaining steps implied as near-term milestones (Press release, 2025-09-22; Business Developments/Outlook). No later document confirms completion; remains pending.

Catalyst: NRC review outcome on Licensed Operator Topical Report (product-based operator licensing framework)

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Fleet operations leverage (centralized monitoring, multi-plant oversight); opex efficiency across deployments
Reasoning: NRC accepted the Licensed Operator Topical Report for review (Press release, 2025-08-21; Business Developments; duplicate summary 2025-08-21). No subsequent document provides a decision or timeline; outcome pending.

Testing and Development

Catalyst: Achieve criticality in at least three test reactors by July 4, 2026 under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program

Certainty: 70% | Timing: By July 4, 2026
Impact: Validates technology at DOE facilities; accelerates commercialization and regulatory confidence
Reasoning: Oklo and its subsidiary were selected for three Reactor Pilot Program projects with the objective to demonstrate criticality in at least three test reactors by July 4, 2026 (Press release, 2025-08-13; Business Developments). 2025-10-01 release reconfirms selection for three of DOE’s 11 projects (Press release, 2025-10-01; Business Developments), with no indication of completion yet.

Catalyst: Pilot technology demonstration with Vertiv at the initial Aurora powerhouse

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Strengthens data center value proposition (power + thermal); potential to unlock hyperscale demand
Reasoning: Collaboration includes a planned pilot technology demonstration at the initial Aurora powerhouse and co-development of reference designs (Press release, 2025-07-22; Business Developments/Outlook). No later document updates execution; remains pending.

Catalyst: Complete advanced materials characterization and testing under DOE Voucher Program

Certainty: 80% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Materials qualification de-risks manufacturability, reliability, and lifecycle cost for fast reactor components
Reasoning: Participation in DOE Voucher Program to evaluate advanced structural materials for the Aurora powerhouse (Press release, 2025-02-25; Business Developments/Outlook). No subsequent document reports completion; pending results.

Catalyst: Complete site characterization program for commercial radioisotope production facility at INL

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Supports Atomic Alchemy build-out; potential early revenue stream diversification
Reasoning: Site characterization work commenced (Press release, 2025-06-17; Business Developments). No later document confirms completion; therefore, completion of this program remains a pending milestone.

Funding Opportunities

Catalyst: Finalize DOE Advanced Nuclear Fuel Line Pilot Projects awards and initiate permitting/construction of three fuel-fabrication facilities

Certainty: 85% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Federal-backed fuel supply chain build-out; enhances deployment readiness and may reduce fuel costs/risk
Reasoning: Oklo selected by DOE to “build and operate three fuel-fabrication facilities” under Fuel Line Pilot Projects (Press release, 2025-10-01; Business Developments/Outlook). While selection is confirmed, award terms, timing, and project starts are not yet detailed in later documents; those initiation steps are pending.

Market Dynamics

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Shareholder Actions

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Strategic Transactions

Catalyst: Close Oklo’s ~$5 million co-lead investment in Blykalla’s A2 funding round and activate joint development actions

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Supply chain and licensing collaboration; potential component/fuel services revenue; cross-border ecosystem strengthening
Reasoning: Oklo to co-lead Blykalla’s next round with an approximately $5 million commitment and signed a Joint Technology Development Agreement (Press release, 2025-09-29; Business Developments/Outlook). Closing of the round and subsequent execution steps are not yet confirmed in later documents.

Catalyst: Decide on co-location with Lightbridge and scope a joint fuel fabrication and recycling facility

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Capital and operating synergies; broader addressable fuel market (fast reactors and LWRs)
Reasoning: MOU to explore co-location and advanced fuel recycling (Press release, 2025-01-28; Business Developments/Outlook), reiterated strategic collaboration to explore co-location and joint R&D (Press release, 2025-08-11; Business Developments/Outlook). No later document announces a definitive agreement; feasibility/decision pending.

Other Key Events

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.