OKLO

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: First commercial operations at Aurora-INL (initial powerhouse)

Certainty: 80% | Timing: Late 2027 to early 2028
Impact: First recurring revenue from power sales; validation of Oklo’s model; unlocks follow-on deployments and customer conversions (e.g., data centers, Federal).
Reasoning: Management reaffirmed target for Aurora-INL commercial operations in late 2027 to early 2028 during the Q3 2025 Earnings and Company Update Call (Earnings call, Nov 11, 2025; document_1, “Outlook”). This is the most recent statement and supersedes earlier generic timing references.

Catalyst: Atomic Alchemy pilot facility operational with initial revenue potential

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Mid-2026
Impact: Near-term lab-scale production revenues; de-risks radioisotope production roadmap and broadens revenue mix.
Reasoning: Company stated the Atomic Alchemy pilot aims to be operational by mid-2026 with near-term lab-scale production and revenue potential (Earnings call, Nov 11, 2025; document_1, “Outlook”). Supports and updates earlier site work noted in June (Press release, Jun 17, 2025; document_18).

Catalyst: Execute binding site-level agreements and projects under the 12 GW Switch Master Power Agreement

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Multi-gigawatt power sales pipeline; potential long-duration PPAs that enhance visibility of future cash flows and scale.
Reasoning: The Master Power Agreement (non-binding framework) was disclosed Dec 18, 2024 and reiterated in MD&A (Company MD&A, May 13, 2025; document_25, “Business Developments”; Press release, Dec 18, 2024; document_39). Next actionable step is converting the framework into binding, site-specific agreements.

Catalyst: Finalize contract award and PPA for Eielson Air Force Base microreactor project

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Long-term contracted revenue; high-credibility reference with DoD; supports broader Federal pipeline.
Reasoning: Oklo was named intended awardee (Notice of Intent to Award) to provide clean power to Eielson AFB (Press release, Jun 11, 2025; document_20). No later document confirms contract execution; therefore, the catalyst remains pending.

Catalyst: Initial deployments under the RPower phased power model for data centers

Certainty: 65% | Timing: By approximately Jan 2027 (within ~24 months of Jan 17, 2025)
Impact: Early revenue from phased deployments; creates on-ramps to nuclear supply at customer sites and accelerates adoption.
Reasoning: The MOU outlines a 3-stage phased model with implementation “within approximately 24 months” depending on site conditions (Press release, Jan 17, 2025; document_38). No subsequent completion confirmation found; remains pending.

Regulatory Events

Catalyst: NRC draft evaluation of Principal Design Criteria (PDC) topical report

Certainty: 85% | Timing: Early 2026
Impact: Licensing de-risking; establishes reusable regulatory framework that can be referenced to accelerate future applications.
Reasoning: NRC accepted Oklo’s PDC topical report under an accelerated timeline with a draft evaluation expected in early 2026 (Press release, Sep 30, 2025; document_6, “Business Developments”). Management reiterated this in the most recent earnings call (Earnings call, Nov 11, 2025; document_1, “Outlook”).

Catalyst: NRC approval of Licensed Operator Topical Report (product-based operator licensing)

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Enables centralized, fleetwide operating model (operators licensed to the design), potentially lowering OpEx and accelerating multi-site deployment.
Reasoning: NRC accepted the Licensed Operator Topical Report for review (Press release, Jun 10, 2025; document_22). Acceptance reiterated alongside ABB training center progress (Press release, Aug 21, 2025; document_11/document_40). No approval yet disclosed.

Catalyst: Complete remaining DOE authorization steps for initial core fabrication at A3F (INL)

Certainty: 80% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Critical path for fueling Aurora-INL; unlocks build/commissioning continuity and reduces idle time.
Reasoning: As of Sep 22, 2025, Oklo had completed 2 of 4 DOE authorization steps for initial core fabrication (Press release, Sep 22, 2025; document_9). On Nov 11, 2025, DOE approved the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement (NSDA) for A3F (Press release, Nov 11, 2025; document_3), reflecting additional progress but not completion—remaining steps still pending. Newer document takes precedence and confirms advancement rather than completion.

Catalyst: Advance NRC licensing for the Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center (fuel recycling facility)

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Production targeted early 2030s; interim licensing milestones not specified
Impact: Secures domestic fuel supply for fast reactors; potential cost reductions via recycling; foundational to multi-GW deployment.
Reasoning: NRC pre-application engagement underway for the Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center (Earnings call, Nov 11, 2025; document_1, “Business Developments”; Press release, Sep 4, 2025; document_10, “Outlook” with early 2030s production target). No submission/approval yet disclosed.

Catalyst: Filing of Phase One of the Aurora-INL Combined License Application (COLA)

Certainty: 45% | Timing: Early Q4 2025 (prior guidance); current status not confirmed as of Nov 11, 2025
Impact: Enables NRC path for operations; complements DOE authorization pathway and supports schedule confidence.
Reasoning: Management expected to file Phase One in early Q4 2025 (Q2 2025 Earnings Call, Aug 11, 2025; document_13, “Outlook”). The Nov 11, 2025 earnings call (document_1) did not confirm filing; therefore, treat as pending with lower certainty. Newer document precedence leads to uncertainty on completion.

Catalyst: Permitting and construction starts for DOE Advanced Nuclear Fuel Line Pilot Projects (three fuel-fabrication facilities)

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Builds domestic advanced fuel capacity; reduces supply-chain risk; strategic enabler for Oklo and U.S. fast reactor ecosystem.
Reasoning: Oklo selected to build and operate three fuel-fabrication facilities under DOE’s Fuel Line Pilot Projects (Press release, Oct 1, 2025; document_5). Subsequent NSDA approval for A3F (Nov 11, 2025; document_3) evidences progress on one element; permitting and construction remain forward catalysts.

Testing and Development

Catalyst: Demonstrate criticality in at least three test reactors under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program

Certainty: 70% | Timing: By July 4, 2026
Impact: Major technical and regulatory de-risking; accelerates commercialization and informs licensing.
Reasoning: Selection for three projects under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program with goal to demonstrate criticality by July 4, 2026 (Press release, Aug 13, 2025; document_12, “Business Developments”). Most recent call (Nov 11, 2025) reiterates Oklo’s three RPP selections (Earnings call, Nov 11, 2025; document_1).

Catalyst: Pilot technology demonstration with Vertiv at initial Aurora powerhouse (power/thermal for data centers)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified (expected alongside/after initial Aurora commissioning)
Impact: Validates integrated nuclear-powered data center solutions; strengthens commercial offering for AI/HPC demand.
Reasoning: Collaboration includes a pilot technology demonstration planned for the initial Oklo Aurora (Press release, Jul 22, 2025; document_16). No subsequent completion disclosed; timing likely tied to Aurora-INL operations (document_1).

Catalyst: Initiate in-reactor irradiation experiments at Aurora-INL under expanded INL collaboration

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified (post Aurora-INL startup)
Impact: Generates fast reactor fuels/materials data under commercial conditions; supports cost reductions and fuel qualification.
Reasoning: Nov 11, 2025 MOU with BEA/INL specifies use of Aurora-INL for irradiation experiments with analysis at INL’s MFC (Press release, Nov 11, 2025; document_2, “Business Developments”). Dependent on Aurora-INL operating.

Catalyst: DOE Voucher Program advanced materials testing and validation for Aurora

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Material characterization and validation support manufacturability, reliability, and cost-down for fast reactor designs.
Reasoning: Participation in DOE Voucher Program for advanced structural materials evaluation and testing (Press release, Feb 25, 2025; document_35). No result publication yet found; remains pending.

Funding Opportunities

Catalyst: Potential newcleo investment of up to $2B in U.S. advanced fuel infrastructure (subject to approvals)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Significant private capital to accelerate U.S. fuel ecosystem buildout; could co-fund facilities relevant to Oklo’s fuel strategy.
Reasoning: Strategic partnership announced with planned investment via a newcleo-affiliated vehicle, subject to approvals; Blykalla may co-invest (Press release, Oct 17, 2025; document_4). No subsequent closing confirmation.

Catalyst: Secure private capital commitments for Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center (up to $1.68B initial phase)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Funds first-of-a-kind privately financed U.S. recycling facility; underpins secure fuel supply and lowers lifecycle costs.
Reasoning: Oklo announced the Advanced Fuel Center with planned initial investment up to $1.68B and expects to attract over a billion dollars in private investment (Press release, Sep 4, 2025; document_10). Nov 11, 2025 call confirms project remains privately funded and in NRC pre-application (Earnings call, Nov 11, 2025; document_1).

Market Dynamics

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Shareholder Actions

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Strategic Transactions

Catalyst: Finalize co-investment and co-location scope with newcleo and Blykalla for U.S. fuel fabrication

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Establishes transatlantic fuel infrastructure; potential to repurpose surplus plutonium; strengthens Oklo’s supply chain and deployment readiness.
Reasoning: Strategic partnership contemplates co-investment and co-location of fuel fabrication facilities under U.S. oversight (Press release, Oct 17, 2025; document_4). Approvals and definitive project structures pending.

Catalyst: Close Oklo’s ~$5M co-lead investment in Blykalla’s A2 round and initiate component/fuel service collaboration

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Cross-border tech/supply chain alignment; potential component supply and fuel services revenue.
Reasoning: Oklo to co-lead Blykalla’s next investment round (~$5M commitment) and explore component supply/fuel services (Press release, Sep 29, 2025; document_7). No subsequent closing disclosure.

Catalyst: Complete feasibility and proceed on co-located fuel fabrication with Lightbridge

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Shared capex/opex synergies; broader fuel-product offering (fast reactors and LWRs); strengthens domestic supply chain.
Reasoning: Strategic collaboration to explore co-location and joint R&D (Press release, Aug 11, 2025; document_14, “Business Developments”; see prior MOU, Jan 28, 2025; document_37). Feasibility outcomes and definitive steps not yet disclosed.

Other Key Events

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.