OKLO

Regulatory Events

Catalyst: NRC decision on Product-Based Operator Licensing Framework Topical Report

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: High operational leverage if approved; enables centralized monitoring of multiple plants, reducing operating costs and accelerating multi-site deployment; approval could be viewed as a major de-risking event for scale-up and stock-positive.
Reasoning: The NRC accepted Oklo’s Licensed Operator Topical Report for review, establishing a live regulatory review track, but no approval date is given. Most recent confirmation of acceptance for review appears in the Aug 21, 2025 press release (Press Release, Aug 21, 2025; also see Press Release, Jun 10, 2025). No later document contradicts or reports completion. Therefore, the pending catalyst is the NRC’s review outcome.
- Source: Press Release, Aug 21, 2025 (“NRC accepted … Topical Report for review”); Press Release, Jun 10, 2025 (report “has begun reviewing Oklo's Licensed Operator Topical Report”).

Catalyst: File Phase One of the Aurora-INL Combined License Application (COLA)

Certainty: 80% | Timing: Early Q4 2025
Impact: Major regulatory and schedule milestone; filing signals readiness and can improve investor confidence; may catalyze positive stock sentiment on submission.
Reasoning: Management guided to filing Phase One of the COLA in early Q4 2025 after completing the NRC pre-application readiness assessment. The older Mar 24, 2025 release anticipated a COLA “later this year,” which is superseded by the more precise timing provided on Aug 11, 2025.
- Source: Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, Aug 11, 2025 (“Expect to file Phase One … in early Q4 2025”); Press Release, Jul 17, 2025 (readiness assessment completed); Press Release, Mar 24, 2025 (earlier plan; superseded by Aug 11 timing).

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: Final award and PPA execution for Eielson Air Force Base microreactor pilot

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Material to revenue visibility via long-term PPA; validates defense market entry and could support future federal deployments; positive for backlog quality and valuation.
Reasoning: Oklo was named the intended awardee (Notice of Intent to Award) to provide clean power to Eielson AFB; next step is final contract award and PPA execution. The Aug 11, 2025 call also references an intended award by the U.S. Air Force, consistent with the June 11, 2025 notice. No document states the award is finalized.
- Source: Press Release, Jun 11, 2025 (“intended awardee … long-term power purchase agreement”); Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, Aug 11, 2025 (“intended award (NODA) selection by U.S. Air Force”).

Catalyst: Initial deployments under the RPower phased power model for data centers

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Approximately 24 months (depending on site conditions)
Impact: Expands near-term customer engagements and pathway to nuclear-powered data centers; could add early-stage revenue from transitional solutions and strengthen nuclear offtake pipeline.
Reasoning: The MOU with RPower defines a three-stage deployment model with implementation “within approximately 24 months, depending on site conditions.” No later documents indicate completion or cancellation.
- Source: Press Release, Jan 17, 2025 (“phased power model … implemented within approximately 24 months, depending on site conditions”).

Catalyst: Conversion of Switch 12 GW Master Power Agreement into binding offtake agreements

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Potentially transformative to long-term revenue and financing capacity; binding tranches would be stock-positive as they validate large-scale demand and underpin project financing.
Reasoning: The Master Power Agreement with Switch is non-binding with the expectation of finalizing binding agreements as milestones are reached. Later filings reiterate the agreement without reporting conversion to definitive PPAs; thus, conversion remains a pending catalyst.
- Source: Press Release, Dec 18, 2024 (non-binding MPA; “finalizing binding agreements as milestones are reached”); MD&A, May 13, 2025 (reiterates 12 GW Master Power Agreement).

Testing and Development

Catalyst: Demonstrate criticality in at least three test reactors under DOE Reactor Pilot Program

Certainty: 60% | Timing: By July 4, 2026
Impact: High technical validation; successful demonstrations de-risk technology, can accelerate licensing and commercial adoption; likely stock-positive upon milestone achievement.
Reasoning: Oklo and its subsidiary were selected for three projects under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program with the stated aim to demonstrate criticality in at least three test reactors by July 4, 2026. No subsequent documents indicate completion; timing remains as stated.
- Source: Press Release, Aug 13, 2025 (“demonstrate criticality … by July 4, 2026”).

Catalyst: Pilot technology demonstration with Vertiv at the initial Aurora powerhouse

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified (planned to coincide with initial Aurora powerhouse)
Impact: Strengthens positioning in hyperscale/colo data centers; positive for customer adoption and potential premium pricing for integrated power and thermal solutions; supportive for stock sentiment as execution nears first unit.
Reasoning: The collaboration specifies a “pilot technology demonstration … for the initial Oklo Aurora powerhouse” and end-to-end reference designs. Commercial operations for the first unit are targeted for late 2027/early 2028 per later guidance, providing context for timing.
- Source: Press Release, Jul 22, 2025 (“pilot technology demonstration … initial Oklo Aurora powerhouse”); Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, Aug 11, 2025 (first unit operations “late 2027 to early 2028”).

Catalyst: Results from DOE Voucher Program materials testing for Aurora fast reactor components

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Positive technical validation could streamline manufacturability and supply chain readiness, improving cost and schedule confidence; modest but constructive for investor de-risking.
Reasoning: Oklo is participating in the DOE Voucher Program for advanced structural materials evaluation and testing, funded by BIL/IRA. The pending outcome is the generation of validated materials data; no later documents provide completion.
- Source: Press Release, Feb 25, 2025 (participation and scope of testing under DOE’s Voucher Program).

Funding Opportunities

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Market Dynamics

Catalyst: NRC licensing fee reductions under the ADVANCE Act take effect

Certainty: 85% | Timing: October 1, 2025
Impact: Reduces regulatory cost burden for advanced reactor applicants; improves economics for licensing activities and could marginally support valuation by lowering burn and improving capital efficiency.
Reasoning: Oklo noted the NRC’s proposed reduction in licensing fees by nearly 55%, set to take effect on Oct 1, 2025, as part of the 2024 ADVANCE Act. No later documents contradict this.
- Source: Press Release, Mar 24, 2025 (“fee reduction … set to take effect on October 1, 2025”).

Shareholder Actions

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Strategic Transactions

Catalyst: Decision on co-locating Lightbridge fuel fabrication with Oklo and potential definitive agreement

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Could accelerate advanced fuel availability and create capex/opex synergies; strengthens supply chain resilience and may improve deployment timelines, supportive for valuation.
Reasoning: An MOU to explore co-location (Jan 28, 2025) progressed to a “strategic collaboration” announcement (Aug 11, 2025) to explore co-location and joint R&D. Pending steps include feasibility outcomes and any definitive agreement; no completion is reported.
- Source: Press Release, Aug 11, 2025 (“strategic collaboration … explore co-location”); Press Release, Jan 28, 2025 (MOU and feasibility study plan).

Other Key Events

Catalyst: Groundbreaking for the Aurora-INL powerhouse

Certainty: 70% | Timing: Late Q3 2025
Impact: Visible execution milestone; validates schedule and could be stock-positive on achievement; typically precedes increased capex deployment and contractor mobilization.
Reasoning: Oklo targeted groundbreaking in late Q3 with Kiewit as lead constructor and preconstruction activities scheduled. No later document confirms completion or delays; therefore, it remains a pending near-term milestone as of the most recent filings.
- Source: Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, Aug 11, 2025 (“targeted groundbreaking in late Q3,” “Selected KeyWit [sic] as lead constructor”).