OKLO

Cluster: Advanced Fuel Supply, Recycling, and Fabrication

Commitment: October 01, 2025: Build and operate three fuel-fabrication facilities under DOE’s Fuel Line Pilot Projects to strengthen domestic advanced fuel supply (three facilities).

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: DOE selected Oklo to build and operate three fuel-fabrication facilities; selection is confirmed, while construction/operations are pending. Progress is substantial but early stage.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-01 confirms DOE selection for three facilities under the Fuel Line Pilot Projects and Oklo’s intent to build and operate them.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Provide fuel fabrication services to Blykalla to support cross-border advanced reactor commercialization.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Oklo and Blykalla executed a collaboration that includes potential provision of fuel fabrication services; commitment is framed as prospective rather than completed delivery.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-29 states Oklo may provide fuel fabrication services per a Joint Technology Development Agreement; delivery not yet evidenced.

Commitment: September 04, 2025: Design, build, and operate a fuel recycling facility in Tennessee as the first phase of an Advanced Fuel Center.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Program announced with site and regulatory engagement underway; design/licensing steps initiated but build/operations pending.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-04 announces the Tennessee fuel recycling facility plan and pre-application engagement with the NRC.

Commitment: September 04, 2025: Invest up to $1.68 billion to fund the Advanced Fuel Center program.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Funding scope publicly announced and reiterated; deployment of capital will phase with licensing and construction.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-04 announces up to $1.68B investment for the Advanced Fuel Center; a recent update from 2025-10-01 reiterates this program context.

Commitment: September 04, 2025: Begin producing metal fuel for Aurora powerhouses by the early 2030s, subject to regulatory approvals.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Timeline target stated; enabling steps (facility plans, NRC pre-app) in motion; too early to evidence production ramp.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-04 sets the early-2030s production target tied to the Tennessee facility and regulatory approvals.

Commitment: September 04, 2025: Explore collaboration with TVA to recycle TVA’s used fuel and evaluate potential power sales from future Oklo powerhouses.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Exploration with TVA publicly noted; no definitive agreements disclosed yet, but engagement is underway.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-04 confirms Oklo is exploring TVA collaboration on used fuel recycling and potential power sales.

Commitment: September 04, 2025: Advance NRC licensing and pre-application engagement for the Tennessee fuel recycling facility.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Licensing project plan completed and pre-application engagement confirmed; ongoing regulators’ interactions support timeline.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-04 notes completion of a licensing project plan with the NRC and pre-application engagement for the Tennessee facility.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Explore co-location of a Lightbridge fuel fabrication facility within Oklo’s planned advanced fuel manufacturing campus to accelerate advanced fuel commercialization, advancing the January 28, 2025 MOU.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The Aug 11 update builds on the Jan 28 MOU with concrete exploration of co-location; progress in line with intent.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-11 details the co-location exploration and joint R&D; earlier evidence from 2025-01-28 established the MOU this advances.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Execute a comprehensive fuel strategy leveraging DOE stockpiles, commercial enrichment partners (Centrus, Hexium), and recycling to secure HALEU and next-generation fuel supplies.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Multiple enabling actions (DOE selections, recycling facility, Lightbridge collaboration) underpin the strategy; no direct evidence yet of contracted volumes from the named enrichment partners.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-01 highlights DOE Fuel Line Pilot selection; earlier evidence from 2025-09-04 outlines recycling facility plans supporting HALEU alternatives.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Leverage government alternative fuel materials, including down-blended plutonium, to fuel dozens of early units without further enrichment under recent executive orders.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: While executive orders and fuel access policies are acknowledged, no concrete evidence of securing/using down-blended plutonium to fuel early units has been provided.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-28 notes support for executive orders and capability to use recycled materials, but no confirmation of down-blended plutonium sourcing or utilization.

Commitment: May 28, 2025: Support executive orders restoring the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain and prioritize use of domestic nuclear feedstock for early projects.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Public support statement and alignment with policy documented; subsequent program selections and facility plans are consistent with this stance.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-28 confirms Oklo’s support for executive orders to advance fuel security and domestic feedstock use.

Cluster: Aurora-INL Deployment and Federal Projects

Commitment: October 01, 2025: Construct the first Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory, updating the September 22, 2025 groundbreaking to active construction status.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Groundbreaking confirmed; explicit “active construction” progress beyond groundbreaking not evidenced in the latest materials.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-01 reiterates the Sep 22 groundbreaking; earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 confirms groundbreaking at INL.

Commitment: September 22, 2025: Engage Kiewit Nuclear Solutions as lead constructor under a Master Services Agreement to deliver design, procurement, and construction for Aurora-INL.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Kiewit engagement confirmed; aligns with readiness to progress construction.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 names Kiewit Nuclear Solutions as lead constructor under an MSA.

Commitment: September 22, 2025: Participate in DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program with Aurora-INL among awarded projects to accelerate advanced nuclear deployment and licensing modernization.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Selection into three Reactor Pilot Program projects (including Aurora-INL) is confirmed.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 confirms participation; a recent update from 2025-08-13 details selection for three projects.

Commitment: September 22, 2025: Advance toward completing DOE authorization and fabricating the initial reactor core at the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility at INL, with two of four authorization steps completed.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Two of four DOE steps completed; remaining steps pending.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 states two of four authorization steps completed to enable initial core fabrication at A3F.

Commitment: September 22, 2025: Create approximately 370 construction jobs and 70–80 long-term skilled roles for the powerhouse and Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Job creation figures cited as project expectations; evidence of actual filled roles not yet provided.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 indicates expected job numbers associated with Aurora-INL and A3F.

Commitment: August 13, 2025: Participate in three Reactor Pilot Program projects targeting criticality in at least three test reactors by July 4, 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Selection and timeline target established; execution milestones to come.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-13 confirms three projects selected and criticality targets by 2026-07-04.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Target commercial operations for the first Aurora powerhouse between late 2027 and early 2028.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Target window reiterated in multiple updates; no delays indicated as of latest reporting.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-11 reiterates the late 2027–early 2028 target; earlier evidence from 2025-05-13 aligns with that timeline.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Progress next steps to deliver electricity and heat to a U.S. Air Force base under a long-term purchase agreement following intent-to-award selection.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Notice of Intent to Award at Eielson AFB confirms advancement toward PPA execution and project delivery.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-11 confirms Oklo as intended awardee for Eielson AFB clean power project under a long-term PPA structure.

Commitment: June 11, 2025: Design, construct, own, and operate a power plant to provide clean power to Eielson Air Force Base under a long-term power purchase agreement.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Intent-to-award received; final contract execution and NTP not yet evidenced.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-11 notes the intent-to-award selection for Eielson AFB; contract close and construction start pending.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Complete site characterization borehole drilling at INL to support the Aurora powerhouse combined license application.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: Drilling completed as planned, enabling COLA inputs.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-13 confirms completion of borehole drilling for site characterization at INL.

Commitment: March 20, 2025: Commit to strict environmental stewardship and efficient development under agreements with DOE and INL during site investigation and construction.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Environmental agreements executed; consistent with subsequent site activities.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-20 details Interface Agreement with INL and MOA with DOE to ensure environmental compliance.

Commitment: November 07, 2024: Complete environmental compliance and initiate site characterization for the first commercial advanced fission power plant after receiving an Environmental Compliance Permit.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Permit obtained and site characterization initiated; later drilling completion validates progress.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-11-07 confirms permit and site characterization start; later evidence from 2025-05-13 shows drilling completion, superseding earlier stage.

Cluster: Licensing and Regulatory Modernization

Commitment: September 30, 2025: Secure NRC acceptance for review of the Principal Design Criteria topical report on an accelerated timeline, with a draft evaluation expected in early 2026.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: NRC accepted the PDC topical report in 15 days (versus 30–60), with an accelerated review and early-2026 draft evaluation expected.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-30 confirms NRC acceptance under an accelerated schedule, exceeding typical timelines.

Commitment: August 21, 2025: Advance a product-based operator licensing framework to enable operators licensed to the Aurora design to monitor multiple plants from a central location.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: NRC accepted the Licensed Operator Topical Report for review; monitoring room commissioned to support training and licensing preparation.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-10 confirms NRC acceptance for review of the Licensed Operator Topical Report; a recent update from 2025-08-21/2025-08-21 (two releases) notes monitoring room commissioning to support operator training.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Plan to file Phase One of the Aurora-INL combined license application in early Q4 after incorporating NRC feedback.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Readiness assessment completed and feedback incorporated; as of early Q4 (Oct 1), no filing confirmation yet.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-17 shows NRC readiness assessment completion with no significant gaps; a recent update from 2025-08-11 states filing plan for early Q4 2025.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Maintain a public regulatory dashboard to transparently track powerhouse, fuel, and radioisotope licensing progress.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: No explicit evidence of a public regulatory dashboard being launched/maintained in the provided summaries.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 references intent; no subsequent documentation confirms the dashboard’s availability.

Commitment: July 17, 2025: Complete NRC pre-application readiness assessment for Phase 1 of the Aurora-INL COLA with no significant gaps, preparing to submit within 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Assessment completed with positive outcome, supporting 2025 submission.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-17 confirms completion with no significant gaps.

Commitment: June 10, 2025: Obtain NRC acceptance for review of the Licensed Operator Topical Report to enable faster operator licensing tied to the Aurora technology rather than site-specific plants.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: NRC acceptance for review secured; aligns with product-based operator licensing approach.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-10 confirms NRC acceptance for review.

Commitment: June 10, 2025: Pursue an integrated licensing pathway that combines design, construction, and operation into one application to reduce re-reviews in future filings.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Company reiterated integrated pathway strategy; related topical report acceptances support the approach.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-10 outlines integrated pathway strategy and its rationale.

Commitment: March 24, 2025: Initiate NRC pre-application readiness assessment engagement for the Aurora combined license application to streamline formal review and commercialization.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Engagement initiated and later completed (no significant gaps), with the July 17 update superseding this earlier stage.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-24 confirms initiation; a later update from 2025-07-17 completes the assessment, superseding earlier engagement status.

Cluster: Technology, Manufacturing, and Supply Chain Readiness

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Coordinate with Blykalla on shared suppliers and reactor-agnostic equipment to improve availability, schedules, and costs.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Formal partnership and joint technology development agreement in place to coordinate supply chains.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-29 announces the transatlantic partnership with shared supplier coordination.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Supply select components to Blykalla to strengthen a vertically integrated, cross-border supply chain.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Agreement allows Oklo to supply components; actual deliveries not yet evidenced.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-29 indicates Oklo may supply select components; no shipment evidence provided.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Pursue joint targeted R&D and regulatory analysis with Blykalla to increase reliability and lower lifecycle costs without design changes.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Joint R&D and regulatory coordination outlined; execution underway per agreement terms.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-29 details the Joint Technology Development Agreement including targeted R&D and regulatory analysis.

Commitment: September 25, 2025: Validate a prototypical fuel-assembly design through full-scale flow testing at Argonne to benchmark models and advance toward production.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Full-scale flow testing completed under a GAIN voucher; data generated to validate models.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-25 confirms full-scale flow testing of a prototypical fuel assembly at Argonne.

Commitment: September 25, 2025: Measure pressure drop and flow distribution across operating conditions to benchmark simulations for the fuel assembly.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Measurements executed as part of the Argonne test campaign.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-25 confirms measurement of pressure drop and flow distribution to benchmark simulations.

Commitment: September 25, 2025: Use Argonne test data to set manufacturing parameters for the fuel-assembly design.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Management indicates test data will inform manufacturing parameters; specific parameter finalization not yet documented.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-25 states GAIN/Argonne data will inform manufacturing parameters; completion status not provided.

Commitment: September 25, 2025: Combine Argonne’s experimental capabilities with Oklo’s prototypic build capabilities to support cost-effective production of large-scale components.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Collaboration framework established and aligned with prototyping and test activities.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-25 highlights combining Argonne experimental capabilities with Oklo’s prototypic builds.

Commitment: February 25, 2025: Participate in DOE’s voucher program to evaluate and test advanced structural materials for Aurora to enhance manufacturability and scalability.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: DOE voucher participation confirmed; supports materials validation and manufacturability.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-25 confirms participation in the DOE Voucher Program for advanced materials evaluation.

Cluster: Strategic Partnerships and Customer Solutions

Commitment: August 21, 2025: Sign an MOU with ABB to explore collaboration on digitalization, automation, and electrification of future powerhouse sites and joint R&D for data center integration.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: MOU executed; complements licensing/training initiatives for fleet deployment.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-21 confirms ABB MOU focused on digitalization, automation, and data center integration.

Commitment: August 21, 2025: Commission a digital monitoring room equipped with ABB technology to anchor operator training and simulation for Aurora deployment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Monitoring room commissioned; supports operator training and licensing preparation.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-21 confirms commissioning of the digital monitoring room with ABB technology.

Commitment: July 23, 2025: Launch a strategic alliance with Liberty Energy to offer turnkey managed power solutions that transition customers from natural gas to Oklo nuclear baseload.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Alliance launched with defined solution architecture; implementation to follow customer engagements.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-23 announces the strategic alliance with Liberty Energy for integrated power solutions.

Commitment: July 22, 2025: Co-develop integrated power and thermal management solutions with Vertiv for data centers using Aurora steam and electricity, with a pilot at the initial Aurora powerhouse.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Collaboration announced with a planned pilot at the initial Aurora powerhouse.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-22 confirms Vertiv collaboration and a pilot at the initial Aurora unit.

Commitment: May 27, 2025: Sign an MOU with KHNP to collaborate on design verification, manufacturability, constructability, and global deployment of Aurora technology.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: MOU executed; supports manufacturability and deployment readiness.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-27 confirms the KHNP MOU on design verification and manufacturability.

Commitment: January 17, 2025: Partner with RPower to deploy a phased power model for data centers that starts with natural gas generation and transitions to Aurora powerhouses.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Partnership established with a defined three-stage deployment model.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-17 outlines the RPower phased power model and partnership scope.

Commitment: December 18, 2024: Establish a non-binding Master Power Agreement with Switch to deploy up to 12 GW of Aurora power across the U.S. through 2044.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: MPA established; subsequent execution to be milestone-driven.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-12-18 confirms the non-binding MPA with Switch for up to 12 GW.

Commitment: November 14, 2024: Enter a strategic partnership with Equinix for 500 MW of power provision, including a $25 million prepayment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Partnership and prepayment confirmed; aligns with growing data center demand.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 details the 500 MW Equinix partnership and $25M prepayment.

Commitment: November 13, 2024: Sign letters of intent with two major data centers for up to 750 MW of low-carbon power using Aurora powerhouses in 15 MW and 50 MW configurations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: LOIs executed; contributes to expanding commercial pipeline.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-13 confirms LOIs totaling up to 750 MW with data center customers.

Cluster: Radioisotopes and Business Diversification

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Advance Atomic Alchemy’s demonstration isotope production facility with site characterization underway and an NRC materials license application submitted to enable early revenue.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Site characterization for a commercial radioisotope facility at INL is confirmed; explicit evidence of the NRC materials license application submission for the demonstration facility is not shown.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-17 confirms site characterization commencement at INL; a recent update from 2025-08-11 claims advancement toward early revenue but does not evidence the license submittal.

Commitment: June 17, 2025: Commence site characterization for a commercial radioisotope production facility at INL to build a reliable domestic supply.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Field activities initiated as planned, supporting facility development.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-17 confirms site characterization work began at INL.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Target initial radioisotope revenue as early as 2026 with full commercial operations by 2028.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Targets set; site work supports trajectory; revenue not yet realized (future milestone).

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-13 outlines revenue and operations targets (2026 initial, 2028 full).

Commitment: March 05, 2025: Acquire Atomic Alchemy to establish U.S.-based radioisotope production, diversify revenue, and integrate complementary technologies with fuel recycling.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Acquisition closed; integration underway and aligned with diversification goals.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-05 confirms acquisition closing of Atomic Alchemy.

Cluster: Financial Strength and Capital Plan

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Maintain full-year 2025 cash used in operating activities guidance of $65–$80 million while evaluating modest CapEx acceleration into 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Guidance reaffirmed; management noted potential CapEx acceleration without changing cash-use guidance.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-11 reiterates full-year operating cash use guidance of $65–$80M.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Strengthen liquidity with $460 million gross equity financing completed June 12 and quarter-end cash and securities of approximately $683 million to fund licensing and construction readiness.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Financing completed and liquidity position disclosed; supports near-term execution.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-11 reports $460M gross from the June 12 offering and ~$683M quarter-end liquidity.

Commitment: June 12, 2025: Price a public offering of common stock to raise approximately $400 million in gross proceeds for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures, and potential investments.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Offering priced June 12; later disclosure indicates total gross proceeds of ~$460M including underwriter exercise—newer data supersedes initial target.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-12 confirms pricing at ~$400M; a later update from 2025-08-11 notes $460M gross, superseding earlier estimates.

Commitment: June 11, 2025: Announce a proposed $400 million public offering with a $60 million underwriter option, expected to close June 16, 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Proposed offering announced and subsequently priced/closed; later updates confirm completion and higher gross.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-11 announces the proposed offering; later evidence from 2025-06-12 and 2025-08-11 confirms pricing and $460M gross completion, superseding the proposal.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Commit to transparent financial reporting with quarterly updates and projected 2025 operating cash use of $65–$80 million.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Quarterly updates provided; guidance reiterated in subsequent earnings calls.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-13 sets guidance and transparency commitment; a recent update from 2025-08-11 reiterates the same cash-use guidance.

Commitment: March 30, 2025: Fund operations and growth for at least 12 months using existing cash and marketable securities while increasing R&D investment and G&A to support scaling.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: As of March/May, liquidity supported 12+ months; June and August financings further extended runway, superseding earlier liquidity needs.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-30/2025-05-13 indicates sufficient cash for at least 12 months; later evidence from 2025-06-12 and 2025-08-11 confirms substantial equity raises, superseding the earlier funding horizon positively.