OKLO

Cluster: Regulatory and Licensing Acceleration

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Submitted a principal design criteria topical report to the NRC that was accepted in 15 days, with a draft evaluation expected early 2026 to support accelerated licensing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: NRC acceptance in 15 days and a stated early‑2026 draft evaluation window are corroborated by multiple updates. Later disclosures reaffirm the accelerated schedule, superseding earlier descriptions.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reiterated the 15‑day acceptance and early‑2026 draft evaluation expectation, confirming accelerated timing.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-30 announced NRC acceptance in 15 days with draft evaluation early 2026; the 2025-11-11 update reaffirms and supersedes this.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will leverage DOE Reactor Pilot Program authorization pathways in parallel with NRC processes to accelerate initial operations, with topical report draft evaluation expected early 2026 and NSDA/OTA actions targeted by year‑end.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Parallel DOE/NRC pathway is active (RPP selections, site groundbreaking), and A3F NSDA approval is achieved. OTA action is not evidenced. Most recent updates confirm momentum; lack of OTA detail leaves a gap.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 confirmed DOE RPP selections, construction start at INL, and A3F NSDA approval; topical report draft evaluation remains early 2026.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-13 noted RPP selections; the 2025-11-11 updates supersede with concrete progress on authorizations.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will use operating data from DOE‑authorized Aurora-INL operations to compress NRC combined license timelines for subsequent sites, with licensing actions planned next year.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: The plan is in place and aligned with the BEA/INL collaboration to run irradiation experiments on Aurora-INL, but operating data will only materialize post‑startup. Near‑term licensing actions are stated but not yet evidenced.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 detailed the INL collaboration to run in‑reactor experiments during Aurora operations, supporting the stated strategy.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-11-11 (earnings) tied DOE authorization to accelerating NRC licensing; newer detail on the INL MOU strengthens the pathway but operations have not commenced.

Commitment: September 30, 2025: NRC accepted Oklo’s Principal Design Criteria topical report under an accelerated timeline, with a draft evaluation anticipated in early 2026 to reduce re-review for future applications.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Acceptance and early‑2026 draft evaluation window are repeatedly confirmed. Newer November updates reinforce this, superseding the initial notice with consistent timing.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-30 announced acceptance in 15 days and early‑2026 draft evaluation.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reaffirmed the early‑2026 draft evaluation, superseding prior timing statements.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Plan to file Phase One of the Aurora-INL combined license application in early Q4 2025 after completing NRC readiness, superseding the March 24, 2025 plan to submit later in 2024.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: NRC readiness was completed in July, but there is no confirmation the Phase One COLA was actually filed by early Q4. Later November updates did not announce a filing, suggesting slippage relative to that target.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-17 confirmed completion of NRC pre‑application readiness assessment for Phase 1.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 did not report a Phase One filing; this absence indicates the August filing target may have slipped and supersedes the earlier plan.

Commitment: July 17, 2025: Completed the NRC pre-application readiness assessment for Phase 1 of the COLA, positioning the company to submit in 2025.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The assessment was completed and subsequently leveraged to target an early‑Q4 submission window. While the later filing may have slipped, the specific commitment—completion of readiness—was met as stated and enabled subsequent steps.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-07-17 confirmed assessment completion and NRC feedback with no significant gaps.
• A recent update from 2025-08-11 leveraged this outcome to set an early‑Q4 submission target, validating the readiness deliverable.

Commitment: June 10, 2025: NRC accepted review of the Licensed Operator Topical Report to enable product‑based operator licensing and faster, fleet‑scale deployment.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: NRC acceptance is confirmed, and the ABB monitoring/training infrastructure stands up the operator licensing approach. Later disclosures strengthen operational readiness linked to this topical report.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-06-10 announced NRC acceptance of the Licensed Operator Topical Report.
• A recent update from 2025-08-21 noted commissioning of a digital monitoring room supporting operator training and licensing preparation, reinforcing execution.

Commitment: March 24, 2025: Initiated the NRC Pre‑Application Readiness Assessment to streamline the Aurora COLA review and advance commercial licensing.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The assessment was initiated in March and completed by July, demonstrating timely follow‑through. Later updates (August) built on the result to plan filing.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-03-24 confirmed initiation of the NRC readiness assessment.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-17 showed completion, superseding the initiation status with successful closure.

Cluster: Aurora‑INL Delivery Milestones and Schedule

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Began earthworks on October 27, targeted controlled blasting in mid‑November, and set full excavation for early January 2026, marking transition to active construction.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Groundbreaking occurred in September and earthworks commenced in late October. The November update lays out near‑term construction milestones; no conflicting data.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reported earthworks in progress and excavation milestones through early January 2026.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 confirmed groundbreaking and initiation of site construction activities, which the 2025-11-11 update builds upon.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Completed major procurements for long‑lead components (e.g., sodium pumps, handling machines, reactor trip system) and secured supplier slots to reduce schedule risk.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Completion of key procurements is specifically cited in Q3 updates, indicating mitigation of long‑lead risks.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 (earnings) cited completed procurements for critical long‑lead items and nozzle fabrication.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-25 documented full‑scale prototypic fuel assembly testing, supporting readiness for production decisions.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Target commercial operations for Aurora‑INL in late 2027 to early 2028, reaffirming and superseding earlier 2025 guidance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple quarters consistently reiterate the late‑2027/early‑2028 COD target. Newer guidance explicitly supersedes earlier statements and aligns with active construction.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reaffirmed the late‑2027 to early‑2028 target.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 and 2025-05-13 also stated the same COD window; the 2025-11-11 guidance supersedes prior mentions.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will build and begin operating Aurora‑INL under a DOE authorization pathway to fast‑track future NRC commercial licensing.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Project is in DOE’s RPP with site construction underway, confirming use of DOE pathways. Operations have not begun yet; execution remains on schedule pre‑operations.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 emphasized DOE authorization use to accelerate initial operations.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 confirmed RPP selection and construction start; the November update refines timing, superseding earlier general statements.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will design and operate the first plant as a fully capable product to accelerate learning and drive down costs for future deployments.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Design and procurement progress support the intent; operations and product‑level learnings are pending first‑of‑kind completion. Evidence is largely directional.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 highlighted completed long‑lead procurements and construction mobilization, consistent with delivering a fully capable product.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-22 and 2025-08-21 detailed productization via data‑center integration and operator training infrastructure.

Commitment: September 22, 2025: Broke ground on the first Aurora powerhouse at INL, initiating site construction activities.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Groundbreaking is confirmed, and subsequent earthworks/excavation milestones commenced in October, demonstrating continued construction momentum.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-09-22 confirmed groundbreaking at INL.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reported active earthworks and upcoming excavation milestones, superseding the initial groundbreaking status.

Commitment: September 22, 2025: Engaged Kiewit Nuclear Solutions Co. as lead constructor under a Master Services Agreement to support design, procurement, and construction.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Kiewit engagement is confirmed and linked to accelerated delivery; subsequent construction mobilization validates practical execution.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-09-22 named Kiewit as lead constructor under the MSA.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 referenced Kiewit selection and late‑Q3 groundbreaking planning; the September update confirmed execution.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Completed site characterization borehole drilling to support development and licensing of the Aurora powerhouse.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Completion is documented; later milestones (groundbreaking, earthworks) confirm that site data supported move into construction.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-05-13 confirmed completion of borehole drilling.
• A recent update from 2025-09-22/2025-11-11 shows progression into construction, superseding earlier pre‑construction status.

Cluster: Fuel Supply, Fabrication, and Recycling

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will operate the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility at INL to fabricate fuel for the first powerhouse, following DOE approval of the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement under the Fuel Line Pilot Projects.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: NSDA approval for A3F is confirmed, enabling next steps. Actual A3F operations are future‑dated; current status aligns with plan.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 announced DOE approval of the A3F NSDA under the Fuel Line Pilot Projects.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 noted completion of two of four DOE authorization steps for initial core fabrication; the NSDA approval supersedes that interim status.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Completed full‑scale fuel‑assembly flow testing this quarter and advanced an integrated fuel supply chain, with the Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center ramp targeted for the early 2030s.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Full‑scale testing completion is evidenced; Tennessee facility plans and timeline are documented. Execution path is consistent with early‑2030s ramp.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 confirmed completed fuel‑assembly flow testing in Q3.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-25 detailed Argonne full‑scale prototypic flow testing; the Q3 update supersedes with completion language.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-04 announced the Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center and early‑2030s production timeline.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Committed up to $1.68 billion to develop the Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center for recycling and fabrication, targeting initial production ramp in the early 2030s and creating over 800 permanent jobs.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The Tennessee facility and investment scale are clearly announced; NRC pre‑application engagement is underway.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-04 detailed the $1.68B Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center and early‑2030s ramp.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reiterated the Advanced Fuel Center scope and timeline, reinforcing the commitment.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Participating in DOE’s Advanced Nuclear Fuel Line Pilot Program with three Oklo‑led fuel projects to accelerate construction and operations of domestic fuel facilities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Selection for the Fuel Line Pilot Projects is confirmed; A3F NSDA approval further validates progress within the program.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-10-01 announced selection for Advanced Nuclear Fuel Line Pilot Projects.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 noted A3F NSDA approval—the first under the Fuel Line Pilot Projects—indicating implementation momentum.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will diversify fuel pathways using down‑blended EBR‑II material, potential plutonium bridge supplies, HALEU partnerships, and recycling, including the first 5 tonnes for the initial plant and up to 20 tons of government plutonium convertible into ~180 metric tons of Aurora fuel.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: EBR‑II material access and partnerships supporting plutonium repurposing are evidenced; quantitative tonnage targets are forward‑looking.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 confirmed DOE‑awarded EBR‑II fuel access for the initial core.
• A recent update from 2025-10-17 outlined a strategic partnership with newcleo/Blykalla that may repurpose surplus plutonium; this supports the bridge‑fuel pathway but remains conditional.

Commitment: October 17, 2025: newcleo may invest up to $2 billion via an affiliated vehicle to develop U.S. advanced fuel projects, strengthening the domestic fuel ecosystem.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: The investment is conditional (“may invest”); the partnership is formalized but funding disbursement is not evidenced.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-10-17 announced the strategic partnership and potential $2B investment; no later updates confirm closing or allocation.

Commitment: October 17, 2025: The parties will co‑invest and co‑locate fuel fabrication facilities and may repurpose surplus plutonium under U.S. safety and security requirements to create near‑term fuel sources.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Co‑investment/co‑location intent and plutonium repurposing plan are documented; execution milestones are pending.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-10-17 described co‑investment/co‑location intent and surplus plutonium repurposing under U.S. oversight.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reiterated diversified fuel pathways including potential plutonium supplies, reinforcing the plan.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Exploring co‑location of a Lightbridge fuel fabrication facility within Oklo’s planned advanced fuel manufacturing facility and establishing a joint R&D hub, updating the January 28, 2025 MOU.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: MOUs and collaborations are in place; exploration and feasibility work are ongoing. No final siting decision disclosed.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11/2025-01-28 announced the Lightbridge collaboration and co‑location exploration.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 referenced continued advancement of an integrated fuel supply chain, consistent with co‑location exploration.

Cluster: Fast‑Neutron R&D, Reactor Pilot Program, and Test Reactors

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Advancing the Pluto test reactor program to support plutonium fuel and component testing, generate fast‑neutron data, and expand materials/fuel R&D over the next 3–12 months.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Selection under DOE RPP and program identification are confirmed; specific Pluto execution milestones over the next 3–12 months are not yet reported.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 identified Pluto as an active program for near‑term advancement.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-13 confirmed selection for three RPP projects, establishing the program base; the November update adds near‑term focus.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will utilize Aurora‑INL to conduct in‑reactor irradiation experiments during its operating life to produce fast‑reactor data in the U.S.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The INL MOU formalizes this plan. Execution is contingent on Aurora‑INL operations commencing.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 (MOU with BEA/INL) confirmed in‑reactor irradiation experiments at Aurora‑INL with post‑irradiation analysis at INL’s MFC.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-22 tied Aurora‑INL to DOE’s RPP, aligning with using the plant for data generation.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will generate irradiation data to improve fuel manufacturing, reduce costs, and advance recycling under commercial operating conditions.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The plan is supported by the INL collaboration; actual data generation awaits operations.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 detailed goals to feed irradiation data into manufacturing and recycling improvements via INL collaboration.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-25 (full‑scale flow testing) supports the broader R&D pipeline toward production readiness.

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will accelerate qualification and refinement of advanced fuels and materials by generating new fast‑reactor data under commercial conditions.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Aligned with the irradiation plan; progress depends on operational start of Aurora‑INL and test reactor programs.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reiterated this objective within the INL MOU framework.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-25 (DOE Voucher Program on advanced materials) supports the materials qualification thrust.

Commitment: August 13, 2025: Committed under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program to demonstrate criticality in at least three test reactors by July 4, 2026, supporting long‑term commercial licensing readiness.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Selection is confirmed; timeline is aggressive with no reported interim criticality milestones yet. Current status appears on pace pre‑milestone.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-08-13 confirmed RPP selection and the July 4, 2026 criticality target.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 affirmed active advancement of test reactor and R&D programs, without interim criticality results.

Cluster: Radioisotopes and Atomic Alchemy Commercialization

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Advancing the Atomic Alchemy VIPR pilot facility under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program toward construction and mid‑2026 operations, with lab‑scale isotope production and initial sales in the first half of next year.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: VIPR pilot timeline to mid‑2026 and near‑term lab‑scale sales are reiterated; earlier site work supports progress.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 confirmed the mid‑2026 operations target and lab‑scale sales in H1 2026.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-17 reported site characterization for a commercial radioisotope facility, underpinning broader isotope build‑out.

Commitment: June 17, 2025: Initiated site characterization for a commercial radioisotope production facility at INL to establish one of the most advanced production sites globally.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Site work is confirmed; later VIPR pilot timeline solidifies the commercialization path.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-06-17 announced initiation of site characterization.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 advanced the pilot facility timeline, superseding preliminary site‑work status.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Expanding into the radioisotope market with initial revenue expected in 2026 and full commercial operations targeted for 2028.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: 2026 initial revenue is consistent with VIPR lab‑scale sales in H1 2026; 2028 full operations remain aligned with plans.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-13 set 2026 revenue and 2028 commercial operations targets.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 confirmed H1 2026 initial sales, superseding earlier general guidance with specific timing.

Commitment: March 05, 2025: Committed to develop specialized radioisotope production capabilities to address urgent U.S. medical and industrial supply shortages.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Acquisition of Atomic Alchemy and DOE program selections demonstrate concrete steps beyond commitment.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-03-05 confirmed the Atomic Alchemy acquisition to build capabilities.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 (VIPR pilot timeline) shows accelerated execution, superseding initial intent.

Commitment: March 05, 2025: Plan to generate initial revenue from Atomic Alchemy operations prior to completion of the first radioisotope production reactors.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: H1 2026 lab‑scale production and initial sales support pre‑reactor revenue generation.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-03-05 stated the pre‑reactor revenue plan.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 specified H1 2026 initial sales, superseding earlier general plans with concrete timing.

Commitment: June 17, 2025: Pursuing transformative projects through Atomic Alchemy to expand radioisotope capabilities and target a share of the projected $55.7 billion market by 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Site work and VIPR pilot progress align with capability expansion and near‑term market entry.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-06-17 emphasized transformative projects and market opportunity.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reinforced pilot operations in 2026, consistent with market timing.

Cluster: Customer Offtake, Partnerships, and Market Development

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will convert a ~14 GW customer pipeline into firm offtakes using creative PPA and prepayment structures as projects mature toward 2026–2027 horizons.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Significant MOUs and a non‑binding 12 GW Master Power Agreement exist; firm PPAs are limited (e.g., intended award for USAF). Conversion is progressing but not yet realized at scale.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reiterated the ~14 GW pipeline and strategy to convert to firm offtakes.
• Earlier evidence from 2024-12-18 (Switch MPA, non‑binding) and 2025-06-11 (USAF intended award) show momentum without broad firm PPAs; newer updates do not indicate conversion completion.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Will co‑lead Blykalla’s next investment round with an approximately $5 million commitment to strengthen transatlantic commercialization.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: The commitment to co‑lead is stated; closing not yet evidenced.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-09-29 announced the intent to co‑lead Blykalla’s round; no later update confirms execution.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Will share technology insights and coordinate shared suppliers with Blykalla, and may supply components and fuel fabrication services to strengthen a vertically integrated, cross‑border supply chain.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: The joint technology development agreement is disclosed; supply actions are prospective.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-09-29 detailed the Joint Technology Development Agreement and coordination plan; execution updates remain pending.

Commitment: August 21, 2025: Signed an MOU with ABB to explore collaboration on digitalization, automation, and electrification for future powerhouse sites.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: MOU is signed and a digital monitoring room is commissioned, extending the collaboration into tangible readiness.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-08-21 confirmed the ABB MOU and commissioning of the monitoring/training room.
• A recent update from 2025-08-21/2025-11-11 tied the MOU to operator licensing prep, reinforcing execution.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Advancing next steps with the U.S. Air Force and DLA after selection as intended awardee to design, construct, own, and operate a powerhouse under a long‑term purchase agreement.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Intended award status is confirmed; contract finalization not reported yet.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-11 announced the intended award for Eielson AFB.
• A recent update from 2025-08-11 reiterated advancing next steps; no later update confirms a finalized award, indicating ongoing progress.

Commitment: July 23, 2025: Launched a strategic alliance with Liberty Energy to provide a turnkey managed power solution that transitions customers from natural gas generation to Oklo nuclear powerhouses.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Alliance launched and publicized; strategy complements phased models with other partners.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-07-23 announced the strategic alliance and its turnkey model.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-17 (RPower phased model) shows reinforcing demand strategy.

Commitment: July 22, 2025: Entered a collaboration to co‑develop advanced power and thermal management solutions for hyperscale and colocation data centers, with a pilot planned at the initial Aurora powerhouse.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Collaboration is formalized with clear pilot intent; aligns with data center customer focus.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-07-22 detailed the Vertiv collaboration and pilot plan at the initial Aurora powerhouse.

Commitment: May 27, 2025: Signed an MOU with KHNP to collaborate on global deployment, manufacturability, constructability, and supply chain development for Aurora.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: MOU executed with a leading nuclear constructor; scope aligns with scaling needs.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-05-27 confirmed the KHNP MOU and collaboration scope.

Commitment: January 17, 2025: Agreed with RPower to deliver a phased power model for data centers—gas generation within ~24 months transitioning to Aurora for emissions‑free baseload.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Agreement in place; complements Liberty and Vertiv collaborations for data center offtake development.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-01-17 announced the RPower MOU and 24‑month phased model timeline.

Commitment: December 18, 2024: Established a non‑binding Master Power Agreement with Switch to deploy up to 12 GW of advanced nuclear power through 2044 across the U.S.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Non‑binding framework is executed; conversion to binding offtakes remains ahead.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2024-12-18 confirmed the non‑binding MPA for up to 12 GW; no later updates show conversion to binding PPAs.

Cluster: Finance, Capital, and Operational Discipline

Commitment: November 11, 2025: Will make modest 2025 capital investments for INL and fuel facilities while keeping full‑year cash used in operations within $65–$80 million, supported by $540 million gross proceeds from an at‑the‑market program and a new shelf registration.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Guidance reaffirmed; Q3 YTD cash used is consistent with achieving full‑year $65–$80M. While ATM specifics aren’t cited in summaries, liquidity is strong with ~$1.2B cash and securities.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reported ~$1.2B cash/marketable securities and reaffirmed $65–$80M 2025 operating cash use guidance.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-12/06-11 detailed a ~$400M equity raise; newer liquidity data supersede earlier balances.

Commitment: June 12, 2025: Priced a public equity offering for approximately $400 million in gross proceeds, expected to close June 16, 2025, to fund general corporate purposes and capex.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Offering was priced and referenced in later liquidity figures; proceeds support growth and capex.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-06-12/06-11 announced and priced the offering; subsequent quarters cite enhanced cash position.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Committed to provide transparent financial updates and maintain full‑year 2025 cash used in operations guidance of $65–$80 million, later reaffirmed and superseded by November 11, 2025 guidance.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Guidance maintained throughout the year and reaffirmed in Q3; transparency evidenced via quarterly updates.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-05-13 set guidance to $65–$80M.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reaffirmed the same range, superseding earlier guidance statements.

Commitment: March 30, 2025: Will utilize existing cash, cash equivalents, and marketable debt securities to fund operations and growth plans for at least the next year following the financial statement issuance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Liquidity expanded materially post‑June offering; Q3 balance indicates ample runway beyond the one‑year horizon initially stated.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-30 stated sufficient liquidity for at least one year.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reported ~$1.2B cash/marketable securities, superseding earlier liquidity levels.

Commitment: March 30, 2025: Increasing R&D investment and supporting G&A growth to scale operations, reflecting long‑term commitment to product development and commercialization.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Operating expenses and notable R&D activities (fuel testing, licensing topical reports) reflect the stated increase.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-03-30 showed increased R&D and G&A.
• A recent update from 2025-11-11 reported Q3 operating loss with continued investment in programs, consistent with scaling.

Cluster: Organizational Readiness, Governance, and ESG

Commitment: August 21, 2025: Commissioned a digital monitoring room at headquarters, equipped with ABB technology, to anchor operator training, simulation, and licensing preparation.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Commissioning is complete and integrated with operator licensing strategy, improving readiness for fleet operations.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-08-21 confirmed commissioning of the monitoring room and its role in training/licensing.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Appointed a Chief Technology Officer to build high‑performing engineering teams and advance modern fast reactor deployment.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: CTO appointment is confirmed; subsequent technical progress supports the role’s impact.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-05-13 announced the CTO appointment.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Will maintain a public regulatory dashboard to transparently track licensing progress across power, fuel, and radioisotope activities.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: No evidence provided of a public regulatory dashboard being launched or maintained to date.

Progress:

• No subsequent updates through 2025-11-11 reference a live public dashboard; absence suggests the commitment has not yet been fulfilled.

Commitment: March 24, 2025: Appointed new board members with a mandate to advance large‑scale Aurora deployment, fuel recycling, and radioisotope production facilities.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Board appointments are confirmed and align with mission areas.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-03-24 announced the appointment of Daniel Poneman and Michael Thompson to the Board.

Commitment: March 20, 2025: Committed to strict environmental stewardship and regulatory compliance throughout site investigation and construction to ensure efficient, sustainable development.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Environmental reviews and tribal engagement were conducted ahead of site work; no reported compliance issues during subsequent construction start.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-03-20/03-33 documented environmental reviews and coordination with Shoshone Bannock Tribes.
• A recent update from 2025-09-22/11-11 showed progression into construction without noted compliance setbacks, reinforcing adherence.

Commitment: February 06, 2025: Ensured leadership continuity amid board transition, with a replacement for the departing director to be announced.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Replacement directors were announced on March 24, fulfilling and superseding the continuity commitment.

Progress:

• Evidence from 2025-02-06 noted the departure and pending replacement.
• A recent update from 2025-03-24 announced two new board members, superseding the interim status.