OKLO

Cluster: Licensing, Operator Framework, and Regulatory Pathway

Commitment: August 21, 2025: Advanced a product-based operator licensing framework with an NRC-accepted topical report enabling operators to be licensed to the Aurora design for centralized, multi-plant monitoring, reaffirming the June 10 acceptance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The NRC accepted Oklo’s Product-Based Operator Licensing Framework Topical Report for review, confirming progress toward operator-by-technology licensing and centralized, multi-plant monitoring. The August 21 update reaffirms and builds on the June 10 acceptance.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-21 confirms NRC acceptance for review and describes the centralized monitoring/operator-by-design approach.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-10 announced NRC acceptance for review; the 2025-08-21 update reaffirms and expands context, superseding the earlier notice.

Commitment: August 21, 2025: Commissioned a digital monitoring room with ABB technology to anchor operator training and simulation in support of licensing and fleet operations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The monitoring room was commissioned and positioned to support operator training, simulation, and licensing preparation, indicating the commitment is completed as described.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-21 confirms commissioning of the digital monitoring room with ABB technology.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Will file Phase One of the AURORA INL COLA in early Q4 after incorporating NRC feedback, updating earlier “this year” targets from July 17 and November 14.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Oklo reiterated an early Q4 filing target, supported by completion of the NRC readiness assessment with no significant gaps. No evidence contradicts the schedule.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 states Phase One of the COLA will be filed in early Q4 after incorporating NRC feedback.* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-17 confirms completion of the NRC pre-application readiness assessment with no significant gaps, supporting the early Q4 filing plan.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Maintained a public regulatory dashboard to transparently track progress across powerhouse, fuel, and radioisotope licensing.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: While transparency is emphasized across communications, the summaries provided do not directly reference a public regulatory dashboard. Evidence is indirect.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 emphasizes transparency but does not specifically cite the dashboard in the summaries.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-13 and 2025-03-24 shows ongoing disclosure in earnings and regulatory updates, but no explicit dashboard reference.

Commitment: July 17, 2025: Completed the NRC pre-application readiness assessment for Phase 1 of the COLA with no significant gaps, paving the way for the early Q4 filing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The NRC readiness assessment was completed with no significant gaps, directly enabling the Phase 1 filing timeline.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-07-17 confirms completion with no significant gaps.* A later reiteration from 2025-08-11 references incorporating NRC feedback for an early Q4 filing, reinforcing the July result.

Commitment: June 10, 2025: Pursued an integrated licensing pathway combining design, construction, and operation in one application to reduce re-review for subsequent sites.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Oklo is executing an integrated licensing approach aligning with its build-own-operate model; no contradictory updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-10 details the integrated application strategy.* A recent update from 2025-08-11 reiterates the approach within broader licensing progress, confirming continuity.

Cluster: Project Execution and First Deployments (INL and Defense)

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Appoint lead constructor(s) and begin INL preconstruction this quarter with groundbreaking targeted for late Q3.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The lead constructor was identified and preconstruction scheduled, with groundbreaking targeted for late Q3. No evidence yet of groundbreaking completion, but plans remain intact.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 names KeyWit as lead constructor and targets a late Q3 groundbreaking.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Target first Aurora commercial operations in late 2027 to early 2028, reaffirming prior guidance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The 2027–2028 COD window is consistently reaffirmed across multiple updates; no slippage indicated.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 reiterates late 2027–early 2028.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-13 (MD&A and earnings call) aligns with the same target window.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Progress next steps with the U.S. Air Force and DLA toward deploying a powerhouse at Eielson AFB under a long-term PPA, advancing the June 11 notice of intent to award.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The June NODA established Oklo as intended awardee; the August update indicates continued forward motion toward a PPA.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-11 confirms Oklo as the intended awardee for Eielson AFB.* A recent update from 2025-08-11 notes ongoing next steps with USAF/DLA, reinforcing momentum post-NODA.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Completed site characterization borehole drilling at INL to support the COLA and site development.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Borehole drilling was completed and subsequently leveraged to advance licensing and schedule targets, indicating exemplary execution against prerequisites.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-13 confirms completion of borehole drilling supporting COLA and site development.* A later update from 2025-07-17 (NRC readiness assessment completed) suggests the drilling data supported regulatory readiness.

Commitment: November 07, 2024: Completed environmental compliance and initiated site characterization activities for the first commercial powerhouse.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Environmental compliance completion enabled site characterization, which progressed into 2025 activities, validating continued execution.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-07 confirms environmental compliance completion and initiation of site characterization.* Newer updates from 2025-05-13 (drilling completed) and 2025-03-20 (interface agreements) show continued advancement, superseding the initial milestone with further progress.

Commitment: September 25, 2024: Finalized a DOE site-investigation agreement to enable timely and efficient transition to construction.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The DOE MOA underpins subsequent fieldwork and readiness steps that have occurred on schedule.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-09-25 confirms the DOE site-investigation MOA.* Later updates through 2025-03-20 and 2025-05-13 show site activities proceeding, demonstrating the agreement’s effect.

Commitment: March 20, 2025: Committed to strict environmental compliance and efficient, sustainable development throughout site investigations and construction under INL interface agreements.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Interface and environmental processes are in place; ongoing site work reflects adherence.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-03-20 details the INL Interface Agreement and environmental reviews.* Earlier context from 2024-11-07 shows prior compliance completion; newer site work in 2025 indicates continued compliance.

Cluster: Integrated Power Solutions and Data Center Strategy

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Finalize the commercial structure with Liberty Energy to offer phased power solutions transitioning from gas to Aurora nuclear, updating the July 23 alliance.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The Liberty alliance launched in July; by August, Oklo indicated it would finalize the commercial structure. Summaries show the alliance and ongoing collaboration, but do not confirm finalization is complete yet.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 references Liberty within strategic progress but does not confirm final structure execution.* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-23 launched the Liberty alliance that this commitment builds on.

Commitment: July 23, 2025: Launched a strategic alliance with Liberty to deliver turnkey managed power integrating near-term gas and future nuclear for large power users.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Alliance launch is confirmed and underpins phased gas-to-nuclear offerings.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-07-23 confirms the strategic alliance launch with Liberty.

Commitment: July 22, 2025: Initiated collaboration with Vertiv to co-develop integrated power and thermal solutions for data centers with a pilot planned at the initial Aurora powerhouse.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Collaboration and a pilot at the initial Aurora powerhouse are clearly stated; no contrary updates.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-07-22 confirms the collaboration and pilot plan.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Reported signed agreements totaling 12 GW plus 750 MWe for data center customers, updating previously disclosed customer pipeline figures.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple agreements (Switch, Equinix, LOIs) substantiate the aggregate figures.

Progress:* Evidence from 2024-12-18 confirms the 12 GW Master Power Agreement with Switch.* Evidence from 2024-11-14 confirms a 500 MW Equinix partnership with $25M prepayment.* Evidence from 2024-11-13 confirms LOIs for up to 750 MW.

Commitment: January 17, 2025: Announced a phased power partnership with RPower for data centers starting with gas within ~24 months and transitioning to Aurora units tied to a 14 GW order book.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The partnership and phased deployment model are confirmed; no schedule slippage noted.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-01-17 confirms the RPower phased power partnership and ~24-month gas start.

Commitment: December 18, 2024: Executed a non-binding Master Power Agreement with Switch to deploy up to 12 GW of Aurora power through 2044 via subsequent PPAs.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The non-binding MPA with Switch is confirmed and anchors the 12 GW figure.

Progress:* Evidence from 2024-12-18 confirms the Switch MPA scope and intent.

Commitment: November 14, 2024: Entered a strategic partnership with Equinix for 500 MW of power with a $25 million prepayment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Partnership and prepayment are confirmed; no adverse updates.

Progress:* Evidence from 2024-11-14 confirms the Equinix agreement and prepayment.

Commitment: November 13, 2024: Signed LOIs with two major data center providers for up to 750 MW of low-carbon power.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: LOIs are confirmed and incorporated into aggregate pipeline disclosures.

Progress:* Evidence from 2024-11-13 confirms the 750 MW LOIs.

Cluster: Fuel Supply, Fabrication, and Closed Fuel Cycle

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Began a strategic collaboration with Lightbridge to explore co-locating Lightbridge fuel fabrication within Oklo’s advanced fuel manufacturing facility, building on the January 28 MOU.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The August collaboration announcement directly builds on the January MOU and advances co-location and joint R&D.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 confirms the Lightbridge strategic collaboration.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-28 documents the initiating MOU.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Executing a comprehensive fuel strategy spanning DOE HALEU, commercial enrichers, and development of recycling capabilities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Disclosures reflect a multi-pronged strategy (DOE awards, enrichment, recycling). While specifics on HALEU sources in 2025 summaries are limited, the overall program is consistently referenced.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-28 supports alignment with executive orders on fuel security and recycling.* Evidence from 2025-05-13 details development plans for recycling infrastructure in the early 2030s.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Advancing toward closed fuel-cycle operations by building recycling capabilities expected to lower costs and waste.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple references to recycling facility development and prior DOE approvals indicate sustained progress toward closed-cycle capabilities.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-13 outlines the commercial-scale recycling facility targeted for early 2030s.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-07/2024-11-14 notes DOE approvals related to the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility supporting recycling.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Leverage government stockpiles, including down-blended plutonium, to fuel early units without further enrichment, enabled by recent executive actions.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: While executive actions support domestic fuel access, the summaries do not provide concrete evidence that Oklo has secured and is leveraging specific government stockpiles (e.g., down-blended plutonium) for early cores. This remains an unverified intention in the provided materials.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-28 indicates policy alignment on domestic feedstock but does not confirm access/use of specific stockpiles.* No later summary confirms securing or utilizing such stockpiles; newer data does not supersede this gap.

Commitment: May 28, 2025: Supported U.S. executive orders on nuclear leadership and fuel security emphasizing domestic feedstock and fast fission plants that recycle used fuel.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Oklo publicly supported relevant executive orders aligning with its technology and fuel strategy.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-28 confirms Oklo’s support and alignment with federal actions.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Developing a commercial-scale nuclear fuel recycling facility targeted for the early 2030s to recover >95% of energy content from used fuel.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Plans and timelines are consistently referenced; no contradictory updates.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-13 (MD&A) details the early 2030s recycling facility target and >95% energy recovery goal.

Commitment: November 14, 2024: Advanced the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility with DOE approval of the Conceptual Safety Design Report to support first-unit fueling and recycling.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: DOE approval of the CSDR is confirmed and foundational for first-unit fueling and recycling readiness.

Progress:* Evidence from 2024-11-07/2024-11-14 confirms DOE approval of the AFF Conceptual Safety Design Report.

Cluster: Radioisotopes and Advanced Materials

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Advanced Atomic Alchemy’s radioisotope program by submitting an NRC materials license application and beginning site characterization to produce revenue-generating isotopes.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Site characterization at INL is confirmed. The materials license submission is stated in the commitment but not independently corroborated in the summaries.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 claims license application submission; however, the provided summaries do not independently confirm this.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-17 confirms site characterization began at INL.

Commitment: June 17, 2025: Commenced site characterization for a commercial radioisotope production facility at INL under a 2020 MOU with DOE Idaho Operations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Site characterization commencement is clearly documented.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-06-17 confirms site characterization activities at INL.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Planned initial radioisotope revenue as early as 2026 with full commercial operations targeted for 2028 following the Atomic Alchemy integration.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Timelines are plan-based and consistent with integration steps; execution milestones (site work, licensing) are progressing.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-13 presents the revenue (2026) and full ops (2028) plan.* Supporting evidence from 2025-03-05 confirms acquisition of Atomic Alchemy, enabling these targets.

Commitment: March 05, 2025: Completed the acquisition of Atomic Alchemy to establish domestic radioisotope production, diversify revenue, and leverage NTD technology for semiconductors.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Acquisition closure is confirmed; integration activities are underway.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-03-05 confirms the acquisition and strategic rationale.

Cluster: Strategic Partnerships and Government Programs

Commitment: August 21, 2025: Signed an MOU with ABB to explore collaboration on digitalization, automation, and electrification of powerhouse sites and joint R&D, including data center integration.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The ABB MOU and collaboration scope are confirmed alongside commissioning of ABB-enabled monitoring infrastructure.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-21 confirms the ABB MOU and collaboration areas.

Commitment: August 13, 2025: Selected to participate in three DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects targeting criticality in at least three test reactors by July 4, 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Selection is confirmed and aligns with accelerated demonstration timelines.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-08-13 confirms selection for three Reactor Pilot Program projects and the 2026 target.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Expanded an international partnership with KHNP across development, licensing, manufacturing, and supply chain to support global deployment, building on the May 27 MOU.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The May MOU with KHNP is documented; the August call references continued collaboration, indicating expansion.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-27 confirms the KHNP MOU and areas of cooperation.* A recent update from 2025-08-11 references the KHNP collaboration within strategic partnerships, indicating expansion beyond the initial MOU.

Cluster: Financial Strength and Capital Allocation

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Maintained full-year 2025 cash used in operating activities guidance of $65–$80 million.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Guidance reaffirmed by CFO on the Q2 call.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 reiterates the $65–$80M cash-use guidance.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-13 set and affirmed the same range.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Preserved strong liquidity after raising $460 million on June 12 and ending Q2 with approximately $683 million in cash and marketable securities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Liquidity position and raise size are explicitly disclosed on the Q2 call.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 reports ~$683M cash/securities and $460M gross raise.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Consider potentially accelerating modest CapEx from 2026 into 2025 to advance deployment and fuel activities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Management indicated potential pull-forward of CapEx while maintaining cash-use guidance; no countervailing evidence.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-08-11 states potential 2025 CapEx acceleration within guidance.

Commitment: June 12, 2025: Allocated public offering proceeds (approximately $400 million gross) for general corporate purposes, working capital, CapEx, and potential investments.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The June 12 pricing press release cited ~$400M gross; the Q2 call later clarified $460M gross proceeds, which supersedes the earlier estimate but maintains the same use of proceeds.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-12 detailed the ~$400M offering and intended uses.* A recent update from 2025-08-11 confirms $460M gross proceeds, superseding the earlier estimate while affirming uses.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Committed to transparency in financial management with quarterly updates on cash burn and operating expenses.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Quarterly calls and filings provide granular updates consistent with this commitment.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-13 and 2025-08-11 earnings calls/MD&A deliver updates on cash burn and expenses.

Commitment: March 30, 2025: Will utilize existing cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities to fund operations for at least the next 12 months.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: As of YE 2024 and reinforced by mid-2025 capital raise, liquidity covers at least 12 months.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-03-30 indicates sufficient liquidity for the next year.* A recent update from 2025-08-11 shows strengthened liquidity, which supersedes and reinforces the March position.

Commitment: March 30, 2025: Increase R&D investment and accept higher G&A as the company scales, while leveraging EGC accounting deferrals through 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Operating expense increases and scaling plans are reflected in filings; no contradictory updates.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-03-30 shows elevated R&D and G&A as the company scales.* Subsequent quarterly disclosures continue to reflect higher operating expenses aligned with growth.

Cluster: Organizational Capacity and Governance

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Appointed a Chief Technology Officer to build a mature engineering organization, scale high-performing teams, and accelerate commercialization of fast reactor technologies.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: CTO appointment confirmed; mandate aligns with scaling and commercialization objectives.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-13 confirms Pat Schweiger’s appointment as CTO.

Commitment: May 13, 2025: Continue hiring across R&D and corporate functions to support strategy execution and scale operations.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The commitment to continued hiring is stated; while scaling is referenced in calls, the summaries provide limited quantitative hiring evidence.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-05-13 and 2025-08-11 describes scaling operations; specific hiring metrics are not provided in the summaries.

Commitment: April 22, 2025: Leadership committed to bringing scalable clean energy solutions to the AI sector and beyond.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Leadership statements and broader commercial strategy (data center collaborations) reinforce this commitment.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-04-22 outlines leadership’s AI-focused clean energy commitment.* Complementary evidence from 2025-07-22 (Vertiv) and 2024-12-18 (Switch) demonstrates aligned action.

Commitment: March 24, 2025: Added new board members to support large-scale Aurora deployment, fuel recycling development, and radioisotope facilities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Board additions with relevant expertise are confirmed.

Progress:* Evidence from 2025-03-24 confirms appointments of Daniel Poneman and Michael Thompson.

Commitment: February 06, 2025: Ensure a smooth board transition following Chris Wright’s departure, with a replacement announcement forthcoming.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Transition executed with subsequent appointment of two new board members, exceeding the “replacement forthcoming” expectation.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-06 confirms Chris Wright’s departure.* A newer update from 2025-03-24 announces two new board members, superseding and fulfilling the transition plan.