ASTS

Moat Evaluation

AST SpaceMobile appears to be building multiple, early-stage sources of competitive advantage, with the strongest current signals in intangible assets (spectrum rights and IP) and distribution-led network effects via mobile network operator (MNO) partnerships. Recent disclosures in August 2025 carry the most weight for this assessment. Execution and regulatory timing remain key uncertainties, and the company is still pre-revenue at scale, so durability is not yet proven.

Intangible assets: premium spectrum access and proprietary technology

Recent filings and updates indicate expanding control over high-value spectrum and a growing IP estate. On August 11, 2025, the company disclosed court-approved definitive documentation for long-term access to up to 45 MHz of L‑Band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada (still subject to regulatory approvals) and a path to acquire 60 MHz of global S‑Band priority rights. Earlier, on June 13, 2025, AST described a settlement for up to 45 MHz of lower mid‑band spectrum with usage rights extending more than 80 years, with payments starting September 30, 2025. Management also cites more than 3,700 patent and patent‑pending claims as of August 2025, up from over 3,400 at the September 2024 launch. If fully authorized and integrated, these rights and claims could underpin a defensible position, as spectrum scarcity and specialized IP are difficult to replicate. The remaining uncertainty is timing and final scope of regulatory approvals and ongoing payment obligations tied to the spectrum agreements.

Network effects through MNO partnerships and European distribution

As of the August 11, 2025 earnings call, AST SpaceMobile reports agreements with over 50 MNOs representing nearly 3 billion subscribers globally. The March 3 and June 30, 2025 announcements detail a jointly owned European entity with Vodafone (SatCo) and its Luxembourg HQ to distribute services across Europe on a turnkey basis, with commercial launches targeted in 2026. Within the U.S., the FCC granted Special Temporary Authority on January 30, 2025 to test with unmodified phones on AT&T and Verizon networks, alongside gateway deployments to integrate with partner cores. These arrangements can seed network effects: as more operators participate, coverage, interoperability, and service awareness improve, potentially increasing the value of the platform to each participant. The breadth of partnerships is clear; the magnitude of actual end-user adoption and revenue sharing economics remains to be demonstrated during the planned intermittent service in late 2025.

Switching costs via deep operator integration and government use cases

Operator core integration and gateway deployment create embedded touchpoints that can raise switching costs over time. On November 14, 2024, management emphasized that integrating with partner cores “is not a trivial task,” underscoring the depth of technical and operational coupling. The January 30, 2025 update described five U.S. gateways being installed for AT&T and Verizon integration. Government engagements add another layer of stickiness: a $43 million U.S. Space Development Agency contract announced February 26, 2025 and a June 26, 2025 tactical NTN demonstration with U.S. defense stakeholders suggest fit for mission‑critical applications where qualification, security, and procurement cycles tend to favor long-lived relationships. These signals support emerging switching costs; however, they hinge on successful, reliable service activation and sustained performance at scale.

Top 3 Patterns Identified

1: Consolidating premium spectrum and IP

• Recent Evidence: On August 11, 2025, AST cited court‑approved definitive documentation for U.S./Canada L‑Band usage and a path to 60 MHz of global S‑Band priority rights; management also referenced more than 3,700 patent and patent‑pending claims. The June 13, 2025 term sheet indicated up to 45 MHz of lower mid‑band spectrum with multi‑decade rights and payments starting September 30, 2025. The January 6, 2025 announcement similarly highlighted long‑term lower mid‑band access.
• Contextual Trends: The company’s spectrum position appears to be strengthening through 1H–3Q 2025, expanding from earlier 2024 disclosures of patent scale and spectrum reuse ambitions. Key caveats include outstanding regulatory approvals and the sizable payment obligations tied to these rights.

2: Deepening operator alignment toward commercialization

• Recent Evidence: The August 11, 2025 earnings call and business update outlined agreements with 50+ MNOs (~3 billion subscribers) and a goal for intermittent U.S. service by year‑end 2025, with UK/Japan/Canada in early 2026. The March 3 and June 30, 2025 announcements detailed the Vodafone joint venture (SatCo) to distribute services across Europe. The January 30, 2025 FCC STA enabled testing with AT&T and Verizon using everyday smartphones.
• Contextual Trends: Progress has moved from 2024 test milestones to 2025 pre‑commercial integration and distribution structures. Management still projects $50–$75 million in 2H 2025 revenue largely dependent on launch schedules and government milestones, indicating the transition from R&D to early monetization is underway but timing‑sensitive.

3: Capital and execution are the gating factors for moat durability

• Recent Evidence: Financing steps in late June to July 2025—repurchases of existing notes, a new $500–$575 million convertible issuance closing July 29, and equipment financing on July 3—brought pro forma cash above $1.5 billion as of June 30, 2025. Simultaneously, Q2 2025 operating expenses remained elevated, and net losses increased year over year; capex needs for launches and manufacturing are substantial.
• Contextual Trends: Since late 2024, the company has repeatedly raised capital and scaled manufacturing plans (e.g., a six‑per‑month cadence targeted by late 2025), while updating launch and service timelines. The balance sheet now better supports deployment, but regulatory approvals, constellation build‑out, and service reliability remain prerequisites before any moat can translate into durable cash flows.