ASTS

Cluster: Constellation Deployment and Launch Cadence

Commitment: November 21, 2025: Achieve 45–60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026 via a regular launch cadence averaging every one to two months, updating earlier guidance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The company reaffirmed a 45–60 satellite target by end‑2026 with 1–2 month cadence and indicated production for ~40 satellites by early 2026. No contradictory newer guidance; schedule risk remains inherent.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 set the 45–60 target and cadence, and stated production equivalent of ~40 satellites on track by early 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 reiterated the same cadence and end‑2026 objective; the 2025-11-21 update supersedes timing language.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: Complete five orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026, superseding the November 10, 2025 target.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Five launches by end of Q1 2026 remain the current goal with campaign preparations underway; not yet executed but supported by manufacturing readiness and multi‑provider launch plans.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 confirmed five launches by end of Q1 2026 and a 1–2 month cadence.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 set the same goal; the 2025-11-21 statement explicitly supersedes prior guidance.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: Launch BlueBird 6 on December 15, 2025 as the next step in building the operational constellation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: BB6 is scheduled for 2025‑12‑15; shipment and launch site are confirmed. Execution remains subject to typical launch risks.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 scheduled BB6 for 2025‑12‑15 at Satish Dhawan, noting subject‑to‑conditions caveats.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 said BB6 was shipped to India; the 2025-11-21 date finalizes timing.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Execute a multi‑provider launch campaign with BlueBird 6 shipped for a first‑half December launch and BlueBird 7 shipping to Cape Canaveral in November with launch shortly thereafter.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: BB6 shipment and campaign kickoff are confirmed; BB7 shipment to Cape “imminent” as of 11/10. The 11/21 update maintains the cadence and sets BB6 date.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 confirmed campaign cadence and BB6 launch date, reinforcing the multi‑provider plan.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 confirmed BB6 shipment to India and BB7 shipping to Cape; newer 11/21 timing supersedes earlier “first‑half December” phrasing.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Maintain a phased deployment plan targeting one satellite launch roughly every one to two months starting in 2025.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Cadence reaffirmed for late 2025–2026, but actual 2025 cadence has not started yet; the more recent 11/21/2025 update sets expectations going forward and supersedes earlier language.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 reiterated a 1–2 month cadence, effectively updating the start window into late 2025–2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 outlined 1–2 month cadence for 2025–2026; newer 11/21 guidance narrows the timing.

Commitment: April 30, 2025: Conduct a 2025–2026 launch campaign with the first Block 2 satellite shipment expected in July 2025 to accelerate constellation buildout.

⚠️ Warning: Poor Execution | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: First Block 2 shipment did not occur in July 2025; BB6 shipped in November and is scheduled to launch mid‑December. The campaign is proceeding, but the initial shipment timing slipped materially; later updates supersede the July 2025 expectation.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 confirmed BB6 shipment in November, not July, and five launches by Q1 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 expected a July 2025 shipment; the 2025-11 updates supersede this outdated target.

Commitment: March 1, 2025: Launch approximately 60 Block 2 satellites during 2025–2026 to enable Continuous SpaceMobile Service across key markets.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Later (11/21) guidance refines the target to 45–60 satellites by end‑2026; current plan supports continuous coverage goals, but earlier “~60” is now a range. Newer data supersedes.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 set a 45–60 range by end‑2026, superseding the prior “~60” figure.* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-01 targeted ~60 satellites in 2025–2026; now updated by later guidance.

Cluster: Manufacturing Scale-Up and U.S. Footprint

Commitment: November 25, 2025: Expand the U.S. manufacturing footprint by adding and operating new sites in Texas and Homestead, Florida to increase capacity and resilience.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: New Midland (TX) and Homestead (FL) sites added; Texas footprint expanded to five facilities. This exceeds earlier space targets and strengthens resilience.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-25 confirmed new sites in Midland, TX and Homestead, FL and five TX facilities.* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-04 planned a Homestead site; the 2025-11-25 update confirms operational expansion, superseding plans.

Commitment: November 25, 2025: Accelerate production of next‑generation BlueBird satellites at increased scale to deliver substantially higher bandwidth.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Company states accelerated production; tied to BB6 launch and 40‑satellite equivalent by early 2026. Evidence is directional; throughput metrics not yet disclosed.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-25 cites accelerated production supporting next‑gen BlueBird.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-21 notes ~40 satellites equivalent on track by early 2026.

Commitment: November 25, 2025: Grow U.S. employment (now over 1,800, up 100% in six months) to support expanded manufacturing and operations.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Headcount >1,800 and doubled in six months; exceeds prior workforce guidance (>1,200 by year‑end 2025).

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-25 confirms >1,800 employees in U.S., ~100% growth in six months.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 projected >1,200 by year‑end; the latest numbers surpass this.

Commitment: November 25, 2025: Maintain roughly 95% vertical integration under U.S. control to secure production lines and specialized tooling at scale.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Vertical integration at ~95% affirmed; consistent with U.S.‑controlled manufacturing.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-25 reiterates ~95% vertical integration.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-21 highlighted ~400k sq ft in U.S. facilities, supporting in‑house control.

Commitment: November 25, 2025: Continue making significant investments to expand U.S. facilities and manufacturing capabilities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple facility additions and scaling actions substantiate continued investment.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-25 announced new U.S. facility additions and expansion spend.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-21 cited nearly 500k sq ft global footprint, ~400k in the U.S.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: Complete the equivalent of 40 satellites in production by early 2026, updating earlier production milestones.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The company states it is on track for ~40 satellite equivalents by early 2026; aligns with near‑term launch cadence plans.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 explicitly stated ~40 satellite equivalent on track by early 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 also referenced building toward 40; 11/21 supersedes prior milestone phrasing.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Exit 2025 at a manufacturing cadence of six satellites per month to meet planned launch schedules.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Target reiterated through Q4, but no disclosed measured throughput yet. Schedule is tight; cadence likely ramps through year‑end.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 emphasized overall production progress but did not report actual six‑per‑month output.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 projected six per month by Q4 2025; newer updates have not confirmed attainment.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Continue production of BlueBird 8–19 and complete assembly of a 40‑satellite equivalent by early 2026 (now updated November 21, 2025).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The November 21 update reaffirmed the ~40 equivalent by early 2026 milestone; production across BB8–19 continues.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 confirmed the ~40 equivalent timing; supersedes earlier language.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 detailed BB8–19 production and 40‑equivalent target.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Expand manufacturing and operations space to over 400,000 square feet and support a global workforce exceeding 1,200 by year‑end (now exceeded by subsequent updates).

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Nearly 500k sq ft globally and ~1,800 workforce reached by November; surpassed targets.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 cited nearly 500k sq ft and ~1,800 workforce.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 set 400k+ sq ft and 1,200 workforce goals; later updates exceed these.

Commitment: March 4, 2025: Increase facilities in Midland, Texas and Barcelona, Spain with a new site planned in Homestead, Florida (≈194,000 sq ft plus 85,000 sq ft planned).

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The Homestead, FL site has moved from “planned” to operational; additional TX facilities added.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-25 confirmed Homestead opening and multiple Midland sites.* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-04 described the plan; latest actions complete and extend it.

Cluster: Technology Upgrades and Performance Targets

Commitment: November 25, 2025: Specify next‑generation BlueBird performance goals including up to 10x bandwidth, peak data speeds up to 120 Mbps, and a ~2,400 sq ft phased array.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Specifications are publicly defined and align with BB6 design and capacity claims; execution to be validated post‑launch.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 detailed BB6’s ~2,400 sq ft array and 10× capacity.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 set 10×/120 Mbps design aims; 2025-11 updates affirm.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Integrate the AST‑5000 ASIC into Block 2 satellites in Q1 2026 to enable higher peak data throughput up to 120 Mbps.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Integration scheduled for Q1 2026; corroborated by ongoing Cadence collaboration. Future milestone.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 targeted Q1 2026 ASIC integration.* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 established the AST5000 development with Cadence.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Integrate a proprietary ASIC with up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth during Q1 2026 to enhance in‑satellite processing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The 10 GHz processing target is consistent across communications; integration remains a near‑term milestone.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 committed to Q1 2026 integration.* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-03 confirmed 10 GHz architecture for Block 2.

Commitment: April 3, 2025: Commit to a 10 GHz satellite processing bandwidth architecture for Block 2 to support broadband service at scale.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Architecture commitment remains intact and underpins the ASIC integration plan.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reaffirmed 10 GHz ASIC plans.* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-03 set the 10 GHz architecture baseline.

Commitment: January 30, 2025: Advance Block 2 design to deliver up to 10x the bandwidth capacity and peak data transmission speeds up to 120 Mbps.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: BB6 specs (10× capacity, large array) and Q1 2026 ASIC integration plan collectively support these targets.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 reiterated 10× capacity and array size for BB6.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 restated the 120 Mbps peak target aligned to ASIC rollout.

Commitment: December 3, 2024: Collaborate with Cadence on AST5000 ASIC development to achieve up to a tenfold improvement in per‑satellite processing bandwidth.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Collaboration established; subsequent 2025 updates broadened to 10 GHz bandwidth and Q1 2026 integration, advancing beyond initial collaboration goals.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 announced the Cadence collaboration and processing gains intent.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 extended to 10 GHz processing and defined Q1 2026 integration timing, superseding early-stage scope.

Cluster: Commercial Partnerships and Market Activations

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Expand the Verizon partnership to target 100% geographic coverage across the continental U.S., building on the May 2024 framework.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: A definitive agreement was signed; scope targets full U.S. geographic coverage. Activation awaits constellation growth.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 confirmed a definitive Verizon agreement expanding coverage plans.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 earnings call reiterated expanded U.S. coverage intent.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Begin initial market activations with intermittent nationwide U.S. service by early 2026, with activations targeted in Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UK.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Timelines align with launch cadence and partner agreements; still pre‑activation.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 guided to early 2026 intermittent U.S. service and initial activations across listed countries.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 set Q1 2026 for UK/Japan/Canada; 11/10 “early 2026” is consistent.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Enter a 10‑year commercial agreement with stc group including a $175 million prepayment for future services across Saudi Arabia and key MENA markets.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Definitive 10‑year agreement closed with $175M prepayment, plus gateway/NOC infrastructure commitments and Q4 2026 launch target.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-29 detailed the stc agreement and $175M prepayment.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reiterated the definitive agreement status and regional plans.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Announce intent with Vodafone to establish a European constellation with Germany as the satellite operations center to serve EU MNOs.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: SatCo JV established HQ in Luxembourg; Germany selected for European SOC; ITU filing submitted through Germany.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-07 confirmed Germany SOC selection and ITU filing.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 established SatCo HQ in Luxembourg for 2026 launches.

Commitment: November 7, 2025: Plan SatCo’s scalable EU service to commence in 2026 with the European Satellite Operations Centre in Germany.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: 2026 start re‑affirmed; SOC country selected; regulatory path underway.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-07 set 2026 commencement and Germany SOC.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 targeted 2026 Europe launches, consistent with later plan.

Commitment: October 29, 2025: Detail stc agreement infrastructure (three ground gateways and a Riyadh NOC) and target Q4 2026 commercial launch subject to required approvals.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Infrastructure plan and Q4 2026 launch target formalized; pending regulatory approvals.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-29 specified three gateways and Riyadh NOC, with Q4 2026 target.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reinforced the agreement and commercialization timeline.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Plan service launches in the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada in Q1 2026 as part of the initial rollout.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Later guidance uses “early 2026,” consistent with Q1 plans, but exact Q1 dates may depend on launch execution.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 referenced early 2026 activations in these markets, aligning with prior Q1 target.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 set Q1 2026 explicitly; 11/10 language modestly broadens window.

Commitment: June 30, 2025: Establish SatCo headquarters in Luxembourg with commercial launches across Europe beginning in 2026.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Luxembourg HQ established; subsequent selection of Germany SOC and ITU filing advance the program beyond HQ setup.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 confirmed SatCo HQ in Luxembourg and 2026 launch window.* A recent update from 2025-11-07 added Germany SOC and ITU filing, advancing the framework.

Commitment: June 18, 2025: Partner with Vi to expand direct‑to‑device satellite connectivity across India’s unconnected regions and develop commercial offerings.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Strategic partnership announced with development objectives; aligns with broader MNO ecosystem.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-18 detailed the Vi partnership and planned offerings.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 indicated broader global commercialization traction, consistent with India efforts.

Commitment: December 9, 2024: Sign a definitive commercial agreement with Vodafone through 2034 to offer space‑based cellular broadband in over 20 countries across Europe and Africa.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Definitive long‑term Vodafone agreement signed; later SatCo advances build on this foundation.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-09 announced the Vodafone agreement through 2034.* A recent update from 2025-11-07 showed EU constellation planning and SOC, consistent with the agreement.

Cluster: Spectrum Strategy and Regulatory Path

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Execute a comprehensive global spectrum strategy with access to 1,150 MHz tunable low/mid‑band MNO spectrum, 45 MHz MSS L‑band, 60 MHz S‑band priority rights, and >80 MHz paired/high‑quality U.S. spectrum.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The company describes this multi‑band access; prior S/L‑band milestones and U.S. paired spectrum rights underpin the strategy.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10/11-10 call reiterated the aggregate spectrum access figures and rights.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 cited S‑band priority rights and L‑band access documentation.

Commitment: November 7, 2025: File ITU registration through Germany for the new mid‑band EU constellation to manage interference and ensure integration with terrestrial networks.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: ITU filing completed via Germany alongside EU SOC selection; key regulatory step achieved.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-07 confirmed ITU filing through Germany.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 anticipated 2026 EU launches; the ITU filing advances readiness.

Commitment: November 7, 2025: Seek access to EU 2 GHz MSS spectrum to enable a pan‑European, sovereign, direct‑to‑device broadband service.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: SatCo identified as a candidate for 2 GHz MSS; process ongoing.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-07 stated candidacy for 2 GHz MSS spectrum.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 set the Europe‑wide service objective; 11/07 sharpens spectrum path.

Commitment: November 7, 2025: Implement a ‘command switch’ for European oversight and security covering TTC encryption keys, service encryption, and beam activation/deactivation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Architectural commitment for sovereignty controls stated; implementation aligned to EU constellation buildout.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-07 described the command switch plan.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-07 SOC/Germany context supports sovereign controls; no later contradictions.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Expect to close the Ligado Spectrum Usage Rights Transaction in late 2025, providing up to 45 MHz of lower mid‑band spectrum subject to approvals.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: As of 11/25, no closure announcement; earlier term sheet and financing support are in place. Closing risk remains near‑term.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-25 did not confirm closing; expectation for late 2025 remains unfulfilled to date.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-13 outlined the term sheet, payment obligations, and financing support.

Commitment: June 13, 2025: Enter a long‑term spectrum access term sheet including $535 million in payments to Inmarsat, Ligado usage payments starting September 30, 2025, and $550 million in institutional financing support.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Term sheet executed with financing support secured; forms the basis for the later expected closing.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-13 confirmed the term sheet and financing commitments.* A recent update from 2025-08-15 targeted late‑2025 closing; newer status remains pending.

Commitment: January 30, 2025: Receive FCC Special Temporary Authority to test space‑based cellular broadband using five BlueBird satellites in the United States.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: STA granted; active U.S. testing with AT&T/Verizon planned and gateways being installed.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 confirmed FCC STA and U.S. gateway installation.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 noted Q3 revenue from gateway deliveries, consistent with test infrastructure.

Commitment: January 6, 2025: Secure long‑term access (80+ years) to up to 45 MHz of lower mid‑band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada to support peak speeds up to 120 Mbps.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Initial announcement framed long‑term access; later documents clarify the mechanism via term sheet and expected late‑2025 closing. Newer data supersedes any implication of fully closed/secured status.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-06 announced long‑term access agreement intent.* A recent update from 2025-06-13/2025-08-15 clarified term sheet and expected closing timing, superseding earlier framing.

Cluster: Capital Structure and Liquidity Actions

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Maintain over $3.2 billion in cash and available liquidity (pro forma) to fund manufacturing and launches toward a 100+ satellite constellation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Pro forma liquidity above $3.2B reported; aligns with multiple financings and note repurchases.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reported ~$3.2B pro forma cash/liquidity.* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-21/07-29 documented major financings underpinning liquidity.

Commitment: October 21, 2025: Price $1.0 billion 2.00% convertible senior notes due 2036 with approximately $981.9 million in net proceeds and a $150 million overallotment option.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Offering upsized from $850M to $1.0B with favorable 2.00% coupon and high conversion price; completed pricing.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-21 confirmed pricing at $1.0B with ~$981.9M net proceeds and $150M option.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reflected enhanced liquidity from this raise.

Commitment: October 21, 2025: Price a registered direct offering of approximately 2.0 million shares at $78.61 per share to fund repurchase of $50 million of 2032 notes, scheduled to settle October 29, 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Pricing completed; settlement targeted for 10/29. Subsequent liquidity disclosures imply completion, though no explicit closing press noted.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-21 priced the offering and scheduled settlement.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 included pro forma liquidity; no contradiction to completion.

Commitment: October 21, 2025: Enter privately negotiated transactions to repurchase $50 million principal amount of 4.25% convertible senior notes due 2032 for cash, reducing debt and interest.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Transactions entered contemporaneous with registered offering; settlement expected around Oct 29. No later reversal noted.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-21 detailed the repurchase transactions.* A recent update from 2025-10-21 (pricing release) cross‑conditioned the stock offering and repurchase.

Commitment: July 29, 2025: Close a private offering of convertible senior notes raising $575 million and repurchase $135 million of 2032 notes while projecting less than 1.5% effective dilution via capped calls.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Financing closed and repurchase executed, strengthening balance sheet and reducing interest burden.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-29 confirmed $575M raise and $135M repurchase.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reflected strong pro forma liquidity.

Commitment: July 25, 2025: Price $500 million 2.375% convertible notes due 2032 (with a $75 million option) and a registered direct offering of ~5.8 million shares at $60.06 to fund note repurchases.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Pricing completed; subsequent closing confirmed on 07/29.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-25 documented pricing.* A recent update from 2025-07-29 confirmed closing and balance sheet effects.

Commitment: June 25, 2025: Price the repurchase of $225 million of 2032 convertible notes funded by issuing 9.45 million Class A shares, removing approximately $63.8 million of remaining interest.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Large repurchase priced with significant interest savings and share reserve benefits.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-25 confirmed pricing and expected closing by ~07/01.* A recent update from 2025-07-25 and 07-29 showed follow‑on liability management.

Commitment: July 3, 2025: Secure $100 million in non‑dilutive equipment financing available through 2031 to support accelerated manufacturing and network deployment.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Facility closed with initial $25M draw; enhances long‑term liquidity without equity dilution.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-03 announced closing and terms.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 corroborates adequate funding runway.

Commitment: January 27, 2025: Close a $400 million convertible senior notes offering with a capped call hedge, increasing cash while targeting approximately 3% effective dilution.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Closed; materially improved liquidity early in the year.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-27 confirmed closing and capped call.* A recent update from 2025-03-04 referenced nearly $1B cash pro forma including this raise.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Announce a $400 million convertible notes offering due 2032 with capped call transactions to mitigate potential dilution.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Announced and subsequently priced/closed on 01/27; objective achieved.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-22 announced the offering and capped call plan.* A recent update from 2025-01-27 confirmed successful close, superseding the announcement stage.

Cluster: Government and Dual‑Use Programs

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Receive a new U.S. Government prime contractor award subject to final negotiations while continuing performance on existing contracts.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: New award indicated subject to negotiations; no subsequent close confirmation provided. Ongoing government work continues.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 referenced a new USG prime award pending negotiations.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 and 2025-02-26 showed active USG engagements and contracts.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Continue ramping dual‑use U.S. Government efforts with expected acceleration as the constellation grows.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Demonstrations and multiple contracts indicate momentum; growth expected with added satellites.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 cited continued ramping and >$1B contracted revenue including USG components.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 documented DIU/Fairwinds tactical NTN demos with more testing planned.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Execute eight U.S. Government contracts to date and demonstrate tactical NTN connectivity with multiple branches of the U.S. armed forces.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Eight contracts executed by Q2; subsequent demonstrations reinforced capabilities.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 stated eight USG contracts executed.* A recent update from 2025-06-26 detailed successful tactical demos across branches.

Commitment: June 26, 2025: Conduct prototype tactical NTN demonstrations with DIU and Fairwinds Technologies with additional testing planned in coming months.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Demonstrations completed with high‑throughput data/voice/video on standard devices; further testing scheduled.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 confirmed successful demos and next steps.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 referenced ongoing USG efforts.

Commitment: February 26, 2025: Secure a $43 million contract to support the U.S. Space Development Agency via a prime contractor, building on prior testing successes.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: SDA contract secured; later updates continue to reference the award and related milestones.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26 announced the $43M SDA-related contract.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 included government milestone revenues in Q3 results.

Cluster: Ground Infrastructure and Gateways

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Continue booking and selling gateway equipment with an expected cadence of over $10 million per quarter on average to support partner commercialization.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Q3 revenue included gateway deliveries; sustained $10M+/quarter cadence is projected but not yet proven across multiple quarters.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reported Q3 revenue driven partly by gateway deliveries.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 call reiterated continued gateway sales cadence expectations.

Commitment: November 7, 2025: House a SatCo ground gateway in the European Operations Centre to provide secure backhaul links between satellites and terrestrial 4G/5G networks.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Designation and planning for EU SOC backhaul are defined; physical deployment timing pending.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-07 specified housing a gateway in the EU Operations Centre.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 described European readiness efforts; newer 11/07 adds specifics.

Commitment: October 29, 2025: Build three ground gateways in Saudi Arabia and establish a Network Operations Center in Riyadh under the stc agreement.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Infrastructure commitments are part of the stc deal; execution will follow regulatory approvals and schedule.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-29 detailed the three gateways and Riyadh NOC plan.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reiterated agreement scope and 2026 target.

Commitment: January 30, 2025: Install five gateways in the United States to integrate with AT&T and Verizon networks for testing and service readiness.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: As of January, gateways were being installed; later documents cite gateway deliveries but do not confirm all five installations complete.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 stated active installation of five U.S. gateways.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 attributed Q3 revenue in part to gateway deliveries; completion status of all five not explicitly confirmed.

Commitment: June 30, 2025: Deploy a small network of European earth stations integrated with terrestrial networks to enable automatic switching and resilient connectivity.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: No explicit evidence confirming deployment completion; EU ground architecture is defined, but station deployment status is unclear.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 referenced deployment plans.* A recent update from 2025-11-07 focused on EU SOC/gateway and ITU filing; no confirmation of earth station deployment.

Commitment: December 9, 2024: Deploy the first Block 1 BlueBird gateway for Vodafone to connect users outside traditional cellular coverage.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 65%

Analysis: Vodafone placed an order for its first gateway; deployment completion is not explicitly confirmed in later summaries.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-09 reported Vodafone’s order for the first Block 1 gateway.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 noted gateway hardware revenues, but specific Vodafone gateway deployment status not disclosed.

Cluster: Public Engagement and Transparency

Commitment: November 21, 2025: Provide a live public broadcast of the BlueBird 6 launch on the company’s YouTube channel.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Live broadcast commitment tied to the 12/15/2025 BB6 launch; pending execution.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 announced the live broadcast for the BB6 launch date.* Earlier evidence from 2025-11-10 emphasized upcoming launch campaign engagement.

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Invite retail shareholders to attend launches where feasible to enhance engagement during the upcoming campaign.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Invitation intent stated; no specific event attendance metrics yet.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 committed to inviting retail shareholders where feasible.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 highlighted live public broadcast plans, complementing engagement efforts.