ASTS

Cluster: Satellite Deployment and Manufacturing Scale

Commitment: October 03, 2025: Continue deploying satellites—five in orbit, satellites 6 and 7 to the launch pad, and plan 45–60 satellites by end of 2026, reaffirming and updating interim counts toward the same 2026 target.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The most recent update confirms five satellites in orbit with the next two at the launch pad and reiterates the 45–60 satellite target by 2026. This aligns with earlier plans and available launch capacity, with no newer contradictory evidence.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 confirms five satellites in orbit, satellites 6 and 7 headed to the launch pad, and a 45–60 satellite plan by end of 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 reaffirms the 45–60 satellite goal with an every 1–2 month launch cadence to 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 outlines five contracted launches over six to nine months.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 secures launch capacity for up to ~60 Block 2 satellites across 2025–2026.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Conduct orbital launches on average every one to two months during 2025 and 2026 to reach the 45–60 satellite goal.

⚠️ Warning: Poor Execution | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: By October 2025, only the initial five satellites are in orbit, with satellites 6 and 7 at the launch pad, indicating slippage relative to an every 1–2 month cadence for 2025. Newer data (Oct 2025) supersedes the earlier cadence plan.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 notes five in orbit with 6 and 7 at the launch pad, implying cadence shortfalls for 2025 to date.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 set the intended 1–2 month cadence through 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 announced five contracted launches over six to nine months.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 confirmed launch capacity availability for ~60 satellites.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Execute at least five orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026 as a milestone toward broader fleet build-out.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: While execution is not yet due, multiple launches are contracted and near-term hardware (satellites 6 and 7) is at the pad. No newer data contradicts this milestone, though near-term cadence remains a risk.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 confirms satellites 6 and 7 are at the launch pad, supporting near-term launch activity.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 reiterated at least five launches by end of Q1 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 announced five contracted launches in the next six to nine months.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Complete assembly of microns for phased arrays equivalent to 40 satellites by early 2026, with eight Block 2 units already completed.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: As of August 2025, eight Block 2 units’ microns were assembled, with the 40-satellite equivalent targeted for early 2026. No newer contradictory updates; timeline remains achievable.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 reported eight Block 2 units’ microns completed and a path to 40 equivalents by early 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 highlighted manufacturing ramp and procurement for 50+ satellites.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Achieve a manufacturing cadence of six satellites per month during 2025, targeting production of approximately 40 Block II BlueBird satellites by early 2026.

⚠️ Warning: Poor Execution | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: The plan called for hitting six/month in 2025, but the most recent October 2025 update does not confirm achieving this cadence and shows only five satellites in orbit with two at the pad. Earlier guidance (May 2025) anticipated reaching six/month by Q4 2025; confirmation is lacking.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 mentions five in orbit, with no confirmation of the six/month cadence being achieved.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 stated the six/month 2025 cadence goal.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 anticipated reaching six/month by Q4 2025.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Maintain and operate six satellites currently in orbit (five fully operational, one test), supporting both commercial and government applications.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The October 2025 update says “about five satellites in orbit,” not six. This newer data supersedes the August claim, indicating the six-satellite-in-orbit condition was not maintained.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 states about five satellites in orbit, superseding the earlier six-satellite claim.* Earlier evidence from 2024-10-25 confirmed the successful deployment/unfolding of five satellites.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 asserted six satellites in orbit, which is contradicted by later data.

Commitment: May 12, 2025: Announce five contracted satellite launches over the next six to nine months to accelerate constellation build-out.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The company announced five contracted launches in May 2025. Subsequent updates reference these launch plans; no contradictory updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 announced five contracted launches over six to nine months.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 reiterated at least five launches by end of Q1 2026.

Commitment: November 14, 2024: Secure launch capacity for up to ~60 Block 2 BlueBird satellites across 2025 and 2026 to enable continuous coverage.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Launch services agreements were secured, including Blue Origin’s New Glenn, covering the ~60-satellite campaign across 2025–2026. Later updates remain consistent.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 confirmed launch capacity for ~60 satellites during 2025–2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 aligns with the 45–60 satellite deployment goal.

Cluster: Service Launch and Market Activation

Commitment: October 03, 2025: Organize operations to get service out to customers next year, indicating broad commercial activation in 2026 and updating earlier H2 2025 limited-service expectations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The most recent guidance pivots broad activation to 2026. This supersedes earlier H2 2025 targets and better fits current satellite counts.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 states the company is organized to get service out next year (2026).* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 had targeted nationwide intermittent US service by end of 2025; the newer update supersedes this.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 targeted beta by end-2025 and full service early 2026.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Prepare to deploy nationwide intermittent service in the United States by the end of 2025 with MNO partners.

⚠️ Warning: Poor Execution | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The October 2025 update shifts broad activation to 2026, and only five satellites are in orbit—insufficient for nationwide intermittent coverage in 2025. Newer data supersedes the end-2025 expectation.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 emphasizes 2026 for getting service to customers, superseding the 2025 target.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 set the end-2025 intermittent US service goal.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 shows STA testing began with AT&T/Verizon, but not nationwide coverage.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Deploy service in the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada in Q1 2026 as follow-on markets after U.S. deployment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: With the shift to 2026 for broader service, Q1 2026 follow-ons remain plausible but unproven; execution risk remains tied to launches.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 sets 2026 for service launch efforts.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 targeted Q1 2026 deployments in UK, Japan, and Canada.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Initiate limited, noncontinuous SpaceMobile Service in targeted markets (including the U.S.) in the second half of 2025, subject to regulatory approvals and 25-satellite deployment.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The 25-satellite condition is not met (only five in orbit as of October 2025). The latest timeline defers broader activation to 2026, superseding H2 2025.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 confirms only about five satellites in orbit and focuses on 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 set the H2 2025 limited-service goal subject to 25 satellites (not achieved).* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 acknowledged the 45–60 satellite build through 2026.

Commitment: May 12, 2025: Target beta service by the end of 2025 and full commercial service in early 2026 across the U.S., Europe, and Japan, aligning with expected H2 2025 revenue.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: The latest update shifts broad service to 2026, suggesting beta by end-2025 may slip. However, H2 2025 revenue expectations from government/commercial remain cited in August updates.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 pivots focus to 2026, superseding the end-2025 beta emphasis.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 reiterated $50–$75M H2 2025 revenue potential tied to launches and government milestones.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-12 set the beta-by-end-2025/early-2026 full service targets.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 confirmed STA testing initiation.

Commitment: January 30, 2025: Begin testing under FCC Special Temporary Authority using the first five BlueBird satellites and install five U.S. gateways to integrate with AT&T and Verizon for off-the-shelf handset connectivity.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: FCC STA testing began and gateways were being installed, demonstrating integration with AT&T and Verizon.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 confirms FCC STA, testing initiation, and gateway installs for AT&T/Verizon integration.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 noted the STA filing ahead of beta service.* Earlier evidence from 2024-10-25 confirmed the five satellites’ unfolding and preparation for operations.

Commitment: October 16, 2024: Begin beta service for 30-plus minutes per day as soon as commissioning of the first five satellites is completed.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Commissioning/unfolding completed in October 2024; STA testing started January 2025. However, explicit daily beta service availability is not evidenced; later guidance shifts broader activation to 2026.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-10-25 confirms all five satellites unfolded and preparing for operations.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 confirms STA testing start.* A recent update from 2025-10-03 shifts focus to 2026, implying limited 2025 beta scope.

Cluster: Spectrum Strategy and Regulatory Approvals

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Close the Spectrum Usage Rights Transaction with Ligado Networks in late 2025, unlocking access to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band spectrum, pending regulatory approvals.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Court approvals and financing commitments are in place; closing remains pending regulatory milestones. No confirmation of closing yet as of October 2025.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 targeted late-2025 closing, pending approvals.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-13 executed a settlement term sheet with payment milestones and financing support.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-06 announced long-term access and financing commitments.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Secure long-term access to up to 45 MHz of L-Band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada, subject to regulatory approvals, to augment the global spectrum strategy.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Definitive documentation received court approval, with regulatory approvals outstanding; consistent with June and January agreements.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 cited court-approved definitive documentation for long-term access (subject to regulatory approvals).* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 reiterated late-2025 closing expectations.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-13 executed a settlement term sheet and funding plan.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-06 described long-term access and financing.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Acquire 60 MHz of global S-Band spectrum priority rights to increase subscriber capacity and strengthen the wireless ecosystem position.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Agreement to acquire 60 MHz of S-Band rights was announced; no contradictory updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 announced acquisition of 60 MHz S-Band priority rights.* No later evidence contradicts the acquisition plan.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Obtain regulatory approvals necessary for the launch and operation of Block 2 satellites in 2025 to support service readiness.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 65%

Analysis: While FCC STA enabled Block 1 testing, explicit approval for Block 2 launch/operations in 2025 is not evidenced. FM1 was expected to ship in August 2025, but approvals status remains unclear.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 set 2025 approvals as a goal.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 planned near-term Block 2 launches and service readiness.* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-30 confirmed ongoing regulatory processes.

Commitment: June 13, 2025: Execute a settlement term sheet to secure up to 45 MHz with payments of $535 million to Inmarsat (due Oct 31, 2025 and Mar 31, 2026) and usage payments to Ligado starting September 30, 2025, supported by a $550 million financing commitment.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The term sheet and financing were executed. As of October 2025, payment milestones have commenced, but there is no confirmation that the first payment(s) were completed.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-13 details the executed term sheet, payment schedule, and financing.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 indicates closing targeted for late 2025.

Commitment: January 06, 2025: Secure long-term access to up to 45 MHz lower mid-band spectrum and 80+ years of L-Band spectrum usage rights (plus 5 MHz at 1670–1675 MHz), backed by a $550 million institutional financing commitment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Long-term access framework and financing commitment announced; subsequent term sheet and court approvals reinforce progress.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-06 announced long-term access and financing.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-13 executed the related term sheet and payments plan.

Commitment: April 30, 2025: Continue obtaining necessary regulatory approvals in each jurisdiction prior to service launch, with processes ongoing in 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Ongoing processes are consistent with FCC STA and spectrum transactions in motion.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 shows FCC STA granted for testing.* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-30 confirms approvals are ongoing.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 committed to pursuing FCC/international approvals.

Commitment: November 14, 2024: Pursue required FCC and international regulatory approvals ahead of commercial service initiation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Evidence of STA testing and continued filings aligns with this commitment.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 confirms FCC STA for testing.* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-30 reaffirms ongoing approval processes.

Cluster: Government and Defense Services

Commitment: October 03, 2025: Provide space-based services to the U.S. government, noting the business was added in the last two years and services are already being provided from orbit.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The latest update affirms active orbital services for the U.S. government, supported by DIU demonstrations and SDA contracts.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 states services are already being provided from orbit.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 demonstrates tactical NTN over standard devices for defense.* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26 confirms an SDA contract.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Execute U.S. government contracts, with eight contracts signed to date, expanding government revenue and strategic validation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The August 2025 business update reported eight contracts; subsequent updates are consistent with continued government activity.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 states eight U.S. government contracts signed.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 and 2025-02-26 shows active DIU/SDA programs.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Significantly expand organizational capabilities to serve the U.S. Government, aiming for substantial revenue streams in the coming quarters.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Government-related revenues increased and H2 2025 revenue guidance includes government milestones, indicating scaling capabilities.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 cites expectations for significant near-term government revenue.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 MD&A shows growing government revenue contributions.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Demonstrate tactical non-terrestrial network connectivity over standard mobile devices with multiple branches of the U.S. armed forces under a DIU contract.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The June 2025 demonstration delivered high-throughput data, voice, and video over standard devices and planned further testing, exceeding a mere “demonstrate” threshold.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 details the high-throughput DIU demonstration and next steps.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Enter agreements with U.S. government contractors with expected revenues of $43 million from SDA and $20 million from DIU, with recognition beginning in Q1 2024.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: The $43M SDA revenue is well documented. Explicit evidence for $20M DIU revenue recognition is not found in the summaries; timing references to Q1 2024 appear to reflect earlier program activity.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26 confirms the $43M SDA contract via a prime.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 confirms DIU demos, but revenue specifics are not corroborated.

Commitment: June 26, 2025: Conduct prototype demonstrations of tactical NTN connectivity with further testing planned in the coming months to enhance resilient, secure communications for defense.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Successful multi-domain demonstrations occurred with planned follow-on testing, exceeding an initial demonstration-only bar.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 confirms prototype demos, high-throughput performance, and further testing plans.

Commitment: February 26, 2025: Support the U.S. Space Development Agency through a $43 million contract via a prime contractor, leveraging next-generation Block 2 satellites.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The contract is confirmed and incorporated into broader government business momentum.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26 announces the $43M SDA contract.

Commitment: October 23, 2024: Develop national security space solutions as an SDA prime contractor under the HALO program, enabling competition for prototype demonstrations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: SDA prime contractor status is confirmed, consistent with subsequent government engagements.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-10-23 confirms prime contractor status under HALO.

Cluster: Commercial Partnerships and Go-to-Market with MNOs

Commitment: October 03, 2025: Go to market through partnerships with mobile network operators rather than direct-to-consumer, maintaining and expanding relationships with over 50 partners representing nearly 3 billion subscribers.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The latest update confirms >50 MNO partnerships covering ~3B subscribers, consistent with earlier disclosures.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 cites 50+ MNO partners.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 and 2024-12-24 indicates 45–50+ MNOs and multi-billion subscriber reach.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Establish commercial agreements with MNOs to offer SpaceMobile Service, with initiatives ongoing and finalization planned before service launch.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Ongoing initiatives are supported by numerous definitive and strategic agreements; the timing aligns with the shifted 2026 launch plan.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 MD&A describes ongoing commercialization.* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-09 confirms a definitive Vodafone agreement through 2034.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Expand partnerships and commercialization with more than 50 MNOs across consumer, enterprise, and IoT sectors to drive market reach.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: 50+ MNO relationships are repeatedly confirmed in 2025 updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 and 2025-10-03 confirms 50+ MNO partners and expansion.

Commitment: June 18, 2025: Pursue a partnership with Vi to expand direct-to-device satellite connectivity and solutions across India’s unconnected regions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The partnership with Vi was announced; no contradictory developments.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-18 details the Vi collaboration scope.

Commitment: December 09, 2024: Maintain a definitive long-term commercial agreement with Vodafone to offer SpaceMobile service through 2034 across more than 20 countries.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The Vodafone agreement remains a cornerstone for Europe/Africa market activation and SatCo.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-09 confirms the long-term Vodafone agreement.

Commitment: December 24, 2024: Continue strategic partnerships with Google, Verizon, AT&T, and Vodafone, contributing to agreements with over 45 operators serving 2.8 billion subscribers.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Strategic partnerships remain intact and expanded, consistent with 2025 updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-24 highlights partnerships and >45 operator agreements, expanded to 50+ in 2025.

Cluster: Europe Strategy and SatCo

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Advance SatCo distribution efforts following expressions of interest from network operators in 21 of 27 EU member states.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Expressions of interest across 21 EU states and the establishment of the Luxembourg HQ support advancing distribution.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 cites distribution progress and interest from 21/27 EU member states.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 announces SatCo HQ in Luxembourg.

Commitment: June 30, 2025: Establish SatCo joint venture headquarters in Luxembourg to deliver space-based cellular broadband with commercial launches expected from 2026 and coverage plans for 21 EU member states.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: SatCo HQ has been established; commercial launches expected from 2026 are aligned with broader timelines.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 confirms HQ establishment and a 2026 commercial launch window.

Commitment: June 30, 2025: Deploy a small network of earth stations integrated with terrestrial networks to enable automatic switching and secure backhaul across Europe.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: The plan is articulated, but summaries do not confirm deployment completion; likely in progress.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 outlines the earth station network plan; no later confirmation of completion found.

Commitment: March 03, 2025: Create a jointly-owned European satellite service business (SatCo) targeting 100% geographic coverage across Europe during 2025–2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The JV was formalized with HQ in Luxembourg; coverage efforts align with 2026 commercial timelines.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-03 announced SatCo creation.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 confirmed HQ and target coverage plans.

Commitment: March 03, 2025: Open a space and land mobile broadband research and validation hub with the University of Málaga by Summer 2025 to develop integrated services.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: No evidence in the summaries confirms the hub opened by Summer 2025; lack of updates through October 2025 suggests slippage.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-03 set a Summer 2025 opening target; no subsequent confirmation found.

Commitment: March 03, 2025: Form a joint European distribution entity with Vodafone to accelerate commercialization in Europe.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The creation of SatCo and HQ in Luxembourg evidences the joint distribution vehicle with Vodafone.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-03 announced the joint distribution entity.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-30 confirmed SatCo HQ and distribution momentum.

Cluster: Technology Platform and Performance

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Develop and implement the AST5000 ASIC chip in Block 2 satellites to enable up to 40 MHz per beam and 120 Mbps peak data rates, reducing costs and enhancing performance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: ASIC design/validation is documented with Cadence; qualification/assembly was completed earlier, with Block 2 integration planned. Field performance at full 120 Mbps per cell remains to be proven at scale.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 details AST5000 development/validation with Cadence.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 notes ASIC qualification/assembly completed and transition to ASIC-based platforms in 2025.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11/08-15 cites 120 Mbps capability via L/S-Band.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Deliver a true broadband experience directly from space to smartphones with up to 120 Mbps peak data speeds per cell, leveraging combined S-Band and L-Band spectrum.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: The architecture and spectrum strategy support 120 Mbps claims; demonstrations to date show lower throughputs (e.g., 10–14 Mbps demos), with ASIC-enabled Block 2 expected to lift to target performance.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 claims 120 Mbps peak per cell.* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-03 shows 10 Mbps (4G) and 14 Mbps (5G) testing results.* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 and 2024-11-14 supports ASIC-based throughput increases.

Commitment: April 03, 2025: Advance Block 2 satellite design with 100x capacity over earlier models and 10 GHz processing bandwidth to support flexible broadband services.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The Block 2 design capacity and processing plans are repeatedly confirmed, aligning with ASIC transition.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-03 outlines 100x capacity and 10 GHz processing bandwidth targets.* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 and 2024-11-14 corroborates ASIC-driven capacity gains.

Commitment: April 03, 2025: Conduct extensive testing demonstrating 10 Mbps on 4G and 14 Mbps on 5G to validate readiness for commercial use.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Demonstrated performance validates baseline direct-to-device broadband; higher rates are anticipated with Block 2/ASIC.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-03 reports 10 Mbps (4G) and 14 Mbps (5G) results.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 references BW3 >21 Mbps downloads historically.

Commitment: December 03, 2024: Collaborate with Cadence to develop the AST5000 ASIC and validate design using the Palladium platform, targeting a tenfold processing bandwidth improvement per satellite.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Collaboration and validation steps are documented; aligns with Block 2 processing goals.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-03 confirms design validation and 10x processing targets.

Commitment: November 14, 2024: Complete qualification and assembly of the AST5000 ASIC to transition from FPGA-based to ASIC-based satellites by 2025, improving throughput and efficiency.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: ASIC qualification/assembly is complete, positioning Block 2 satellites for ASIC-based operations.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 states ASIC qualification/assembly completion and 2025 transition plans.

Cluster: Capital Structure, Liquidity, and Funding

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Secure multiple financings including $575 million convertible notes, $100 million equipment financing, and a non-recourse delayed draw term loan to fund $550 million spectrum payments upon FCC approval.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The $575M convertible and $100M equipment facility closed. The summaries do not explicitly confirm the non-recourse delayed draw term loan; otherwise, funding capacity appears robust.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-29 confirms closing of $575M convertible notes.* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-03 confirms $100M non-dilutive equipment financing.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-11 references the broader financing package; loan specifics not independently confirmed in summaries.

Commitment: August 11, 2025: Fortify the balance sheet to support network building with a goal to maintain over $1.5 billion in cash.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Post-July financing, pro forma cash exceeded $1.5B; subsequent communications maintain that posture.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-29 reports >$1.5B in pro forma cash.

Commitment: July 29, 2025: Close a $575 million private offering of convertible senior notes, resulting in over $1.5 billion in pro forma cash to accelerate deployment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: Transaction closed as announced.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-29 confirms closing and pro forma cash position.

Commitment: July 29, 2025: Repurchase $135 million principal amount of 4.25% convertible senior notes due 2032, eliminating approximately $37.8 million of remaining interest (updating the June 25 plan to repurchase $225 million).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The repurchase at $135M was priced and tied to the registered direct offering; this superseded the earlier $225M plan.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-25/07-29 confirms pricing and intent to repurchase $135M and elimination of $37.8M interest.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-25 announced a larger $225M repurchase plan that was later reduced.

Commitment: June 25, 2025: Announce intention to repurchase $225 million of 2032 convertible notes and issue Class A shares to fund it, which was superseded by the July 25–29 transactions reducing the repurchase to $135 million.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The original $225M repurchase intent was superseded and effectively reduced to $135M by later July transactions; newer information supersedes the earlier plan.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-25 announced the $225M repurchase plan.* A recent update from 2025-07-25/07-29 superseded the amount to $135M.

Commitment: July 03, 2025: Secure $100 million of long-term non-dilutive equipment financing available through 2031 to support manufacturing and deployment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The facility closed with an initial $25M draw; terms support long-term manufacturing needs.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-03 confirms closing of the $100M equipment facility.

Commitment: July 29, 2025: Mitigate shareholder dilution through capped call transactions associated with the new convertible notes, targeting less than 1.5% effective dilution.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Capped call strategy and target dilution metrics were disclosed with the July notes closing.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-29 outlines capped call transactions targeting <1.5% effective dilution.

Commitment: January 27, 2025: Close a private offering of convertible senior notes providing nearly $1 billion in pro forma cash to accelerate production and launches.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The January notes closed, bolstering cash ahead of mid-year financings.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-27 confirms the closing and pro forma cash.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Price $400 million convertible senior notes due 2032, allocating approximately $38.7 million for capped calls to reduce potential dilution.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Pricing and capped call allocation were disclosed and executed as planned.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-22 and 2025-01-30 confirms pricing and capped calls.

Cluster: Market Positioning and Target Customers

Commitment: October 03, 2025: Target mass-market cellular broadband customers globally, not just niche use cases, addressing coverage gaps and areas lacking 3G+.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The latest positioning emphasizes broad, mass-market focus; consistent with partner-led distribution.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-03 reiterates mass-market targeting and coverage gap focus.

Commitment: October 03, 2025: Deliver wireless access from space directly to unmodified mobile phones via a LEO constellation as a core capability.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: FCC STA testing with AT&T/Verizon and prior demonstrations validate phone-native connectivity.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-30 confirms STA for testing with standard handsets.* Earlier evidence from 2024-11-14 and prior demos support direct-to-device capability.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: Explore and enter new geographic markets following initial service launches to drive long-term growth.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Partnerships (e.g., Vi in India) and SatCo in Europe underpin expansion; execution