ASPI

Cluster: Leadership and Governance

Commitment: December 02, 2025: Paul Mann will resume full CEO duties on January 19, 2026 while continuing as Executive Chairman, superseding the interim leadership structure announced on September 29, 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The company formally announced Paul Mann’s return as CEO effective January 19, 2026, while retaining his Executive Chairman role. This update supersedes the interim leadership structure.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-12-02 confirmed Mann’s return date and roles (supersedes 2025-09-29 interim arrangement).

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Robert Ainscow, COO, was appointed Interim CEO effective October 1, 2025 to oversee day-to-day operations during Mr. Mann’s medical leave.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 98%

Analysis: The interim appointment became effective and remained in place until Mann’s scheduled return; Ainscow continues as COO thereafter.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 announced the interim appointment effective 2025-10-01.* A recent update from 2025-12-02 noted Ainscow continues as COO after Mann’s return.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: The company committed to a strengthened executive team to accelerate execution on well-defined strategic priorities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Management cites strengthened execution frameworks and alignment with shareholder feedback; interim leadership operated without disruption.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 stated recruitment of an experienced executive team and focus on execution.* A recent update from 2025-12-02 reported strengthened execution frameworks and enhanced strategic clarity.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Michael Cunniffe was appointed CFO of QLE effective October 1, 2025 to prepare for a public listing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Appointment confirmed; subsequent S-1 submission and financing progress indicate continued preparation for listing.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 confirmed the appointment effective 2025-10-01.* A recent update from 2025-11-12 confirmed QLE’s confidential S-1 submission, consistent with CFO appointment purpose.

Commitment: September 08, 2025: Industry veteran Ralph Hunter joined the boards of ASPI and QLE to help advance the company’s technologies in the U.S. and globally.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Appointment completed; his mandate aligns with subsequent U.S./UK nuclear initiatives and regulatory engagements.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-08 confirmed Hunter’s appointment and role.* A later related update from 2025-11-05 showed UK regulatory early engagement momentum (consistent with his remit).

Commitment: September 08, 2025: The company reiterated plans to apply its enrichment technologies to produce HALEU for next‑generation reactors.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Subsequent milestones in UK regulatory engagement and U.S. siting (Amarillo) reinforce execution toward HALEU.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-08 reiterated HALEU plans.* A recent update from 2025-11-05 confirmed UK ONR Early Engagement; 2025-11-21/2025-08-15 updates advanced U.S. siting plans.

Commitment: June 11, 2025: Dr. Ryno Pretorius was appointed CEO of QLE to build out leadership ahead of the spin‑out.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Appointment executed; QLE progressed S-1 and financing thereafter.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-11 confirmed appointment and QLE focus.* A recent update from 2025-11-12/2025-11-07 showed IPO preparation and financing under his leadership.

Cluster: Capital Markets and Financing

Commitment: November 12, 2025: QLE confidentially submitted a draft S‑1 to the SEC for a proposed IPO, progressing the spin‑out plan.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: S-1 confidential submission acknowledged; process now subject to SEC review and market conditions.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-12 confirmed the confidential S‑1 submission.* Supporting evidence from 2025-11-21 earnings call reiterated spin‑out progress.

Commitment: November 07, 2025: QLE commenced a private placement of US$64.3 million convertible notes (initial closing around November 10, 2025) with conversion mechanics tied to future equity events and a five‑year maturity.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Offering commenced with definitive purchase agreement; subsequent disclosures indicate funding secured.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-07 detailed the note terms and initial closing timing.* A later update from 2025-11-21 noted QLE secured $64.3M in convertible funding (indicates successful close).

Commitment: November 07, 2025: QLE noted potential subsequent closings for additional Regulation S issuances to non‑U.S. investors.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Initial close evidenced; no subsequent closing(s) disclosed yet.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-07 outlined the plan for subsequent Reg S closings.* No later evidence as of 2025-11-21 confirming additional closings (status pending).

Commitment: October 15, 2025: ASPI priced an underwritten public offering of 17,167,380 shares for approximately $210.3 million in gross proceeds (closing expected October 16, 2025), superseding the October 14, 2025 proposed offering announcement.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Pricing achieved; later disclosure of ~ $200M net proceeds post‑Q3 implies closing completed.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-15 confirmed pricing and expected close.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 referenced ~ $200M post‑Q3 net proceeds (implies closing; supersedes 2025-10-14 proposal).

Commitment: October 14, 2025: ASPI announced commencement of an underwritten public offering pursuant to an effective shelf (superseded by October 15, 2025 pricing and terms).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: The initial announcement was superseded by final pricing on October 15.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-14 announced the offering.* A subsequent update from 2025-10-15 priced the offering (supersedes 2025-10-14).

Commitment: July 23, 2025: ASPI priced an underwritten registered direct offering for approximately $60.0 million in gross proceeds (closing around July 25, 2025) for general corporate purposes.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Pricing announced; no contrary updates; treated as completed per standard closing cadence.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-23 announced pricing and expected close ~2025-07-25.

Commitment: June 02, 2025: ASPI priced an underwritten registered direct offering for approximately $50.0 million in gross proceeds (closing around June 3, 2025) for general corporate purposes, including Renergen bridge funding.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Pricing announced; intended use included Renergen bridge loan; no conflicting updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-02 announced pricing and intended use of proceeds.

Commitment: August 26, 2025: ASPI confirmed secondary listing on the JSE effective August 27, 2025 while retaining Nasdaq as primary, superseding the April 24, 2025 proposal.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Secondary listing executed as planned, delivering on prior proposal.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-26 confirmed the JSE listing effective 2025-08-27.* Earlier proposal from 2025-04-24 was superseded by the confirmation.

Commitment: April 24, 2025: ASPI proposed a secondary JSE listing later in 2025 to enhance liquidity and diversify the shareholder base (superseded by August 26, 2025 confirmation).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: Proposal was fulfilled; superseded by actual listing confirmation.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-24 proposed the listing.* A later update from 2025-08-26 confirmed effectiveness (supersedes proposal).

Cluster: Advanced Nuclear Fuels (HALEU and Lithium), Regulatory Progress, and Siting

Commitment: November 21, 2025: QLE advanced an MOU to utilize the Amarillo, Texas HyperGrid campus for uranium enrichment to produce LEU Plus and HALEU, supporting a large data center complex.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 88%

Analysis: Texas siting advanced via HyperGrid MOU; aligns with the earlier Fermi America MOU for HALEU and later operational footprint plans.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 detailed the HyperGrid JV MOU with Fermi America.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call referenced Austin HQ, Amarillo commercial operations (reinforces siting progress).

Commitment: November 21, 2025: QLE committed to become a leading supplier of lithium‑6/lithium‑7 and pursue HALEU production with staged investment through 2025–2027 and demonstration plants thereafter.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Strategy affirmed; demonstration plant timelines referenced; corroborated by leadership and regulatory moves.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call described demonstration plants roadmap for lithium and uranium.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-11 confirmed QLE leadership and HALEU/Li focus.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: QLE will begin engineering design in South Africa for initial demonstration plants (lithium and uranium) followed by demonstration sites in the U.S. and U.K., establishing an Austin HQ and Amarillo commercial operations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The engineering and siting sequence matches disclosures; Austin/Amarillo footprint reiterated.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call outlined SA engineering and US/UK demonstration sequencing and Austin/Amarillo plans.

Commitment: November 05, 2025: QLE Ltd entered Early Engagement with the UK ONR and regulators to pursue HALEU licensing, with a pathway to full licensing within this decade (internal estimate).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Early Engagement status confirmed; establishes regulatory pathway.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-05 confirmed Early Engagement and DESNZ clearance.

Commitment: November 05, 2025: QLE Ltd committed to site selection, preparing nuclear site licence/environmental permits, and working with DESNZ for civil/commercial uranium enrichment permissions in the UK.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Commitments are underway per UK announcement; next steps are application preparations.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-05 stated site selection and licence/permit preparation.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: QLE and Fermi America signed an MOU for a Texas JV to develop a commercial HALEU enrichment facility including conversion/deconversion and fuel assembly fabrication at the HyperGrid campus.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: MOU executed; later Amarillo operating plans are consistent with JV intent.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 detailed the JV MOU at HyperGrid.* A later update from 2025-11-21 earnings call reinforced Amarillo plans.

Commitment: August 15, 2025: ASPI reaffirmed two TerraPower HALEU supply agreements, including up to 150 metric tons over 2028–2037, with initial cores targeted for the 2027/28 timeframe.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Reaffirmed agreements corroborated by definitive agreements and production timeline targets.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-19 confirmed definitive agreements (15 MTU/yr target starting 2027; up to 150 MT supply 2028–2037).* 2025-08-15 reaffirmation aligns with the definitive agreements.

Commitment: June 11, 2025: ASPI outlined TerraPower loan support and QLE leadership build‑out to accelerate permitting/licensing of nuclear fuel plants in multiple jurisdictions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Leadership and financing support in place; subsequent regulatory early engagement shows momentum.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-11 announced QLE CEO and TerraPower loan support.* A recent update from 2025-11-05 showed UK regulatory progress.

Commitment: May 19, 2025: ASPI finalized definitive agreements with TerraPower to construct a HALEU facility at Pelindaba targeting ~15 MTU annually with initial production in 2027, plus long‑term HALEU supply of up to 150 MT (2028–2037).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Definitive agreements set the program baseline; later siting and regulatory activities align.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-19 detailed the loan and supply agreements with TerraPower.* Later UK/US siting steps (2025-11-05 and 2025-11-21) are consistent with the broader program.

Cluster: Stable Isotopes: Production, Deliveries, and Customer Commitments

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI committed to deliver and satisfy silicon‑28 orders in 2026 after plant modifications, superseding earlier 2025 shipment expectations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Updated guidance to 2026; corroborated by the large Si‑28 contract indicating Q1 2026 deliveries.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 set 2026 delivery target (supersedes 2025 expectations).* A recent update from 2025-10-13 cited Si‑28 contract with deliveries expected in Q1 2026.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI will deliver commercial quantities of ytterbium‑176 in the first half of 2026, superseding earlier expectations of 2025 shipments.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: H1 2026 guidance repeated on earnings call, replacing 2025 shipment expectations.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call stated H1 2026 for initial commercial quantities (supersedes 2025 guidance).

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI will commence carbon‑14 production with the first full batch in January 2026 and first commercial batch in the first half of 2026, superseding mid‑2025 shipment guidance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Production commencement rescheduled; earlier mid‑2025 shipment plans have slipped and are explicitly superseded.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call set Jan 2026 first full batch and H1 2026 first commercial batch (supersedes earlier timing).* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26 announced C‑14 production start, with mid‑2025 shipment expectations—now superseded.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI will ship commercial carbon‑12 in December 2025, superseding earlier August/September 2025 expectations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Updated shipment month to December 2025; reiterated on Q3 call.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call affirmed December 2025 shipments (supersedes 2025-08-26 and 2025-07-17 expectations).

Commitment: September 30, 2025: ASPI received a purchase order to supply enriched barium‑137 to a U.S. customer with deliveries during Q1 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: PO secured; timeline set for Q1 2026.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-30 announced the PO and Q1 2026 delivery schedule.

Commitment: June 04, 2025: ASPI agreed to supply gadolinium‑160 to Isotopia over four years commencing in 2026 with a minimum contract value of ~$1 million per annum.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multi‑year supply agreement signed; start year 2026.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-04 detailed the four‑year agreement starting 2026.

Commitment: August 26, 2025: ASPI expected to supply its first commercial carbon‑12 in September 2025 (now superseded by November 21, 2025 update to December 2025).

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: Original September date slipped; superseded by December 2025 guidance.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-26 set September 2025 expectation.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 moved shipment to December 2025 (supersedes earlier).

Commitment: July 17, 2025: ASPI announced commercial production for silicon‑28, ytterbium‑176, and carbon‑12 with August 2025 shipment expectations (now superseded by later updates).

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: August 2025 shipment targets were not achieved; later guidance pushed timelines into late 2025/2026.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-17 set August shipment expectations.* Later updates from 2025-11-21/2025-10-13 deferred shipments to Dec 2025 or H1 2026 (supersedes earlier).

Commitment: March 27, 2025: ASPI began commercial production of silicon‑28 with shipments expected in 2Q 2025 and planned additional supply agreements (now superseded by later delivery timelines).

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: 2Q 2025 shipment target not met; updated to 2026 deliveries.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-27 set 2Q 2025 shipment expectations.* Later updates from 2025-11-21/2025-10-13 revised to 2026 deliveries (supersedes earlier).

Commitment: February 26, 2025: ASPI began commercial production of carbon‑14 and executed a multi‑year take‑or‑pay contract with RC‑14 Inc. (~$2.4 million minimum per annum), though shipment timing has been updated by later guidance.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Production commenced and contract signed; shipments deferred to H1 2026 per updated guidance.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-26 confirmed C‑14 production and take‑or‑pay contract.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 moved first commercial batch to H1 2026 (supersedes mid‑2025 shipment plan).

Commitment: January 13, 2025: ASPI targeted first‑half 2025 production and sales of carbon‑14 and commencement of silicon‑28 and ytterbium‑176 commercial production in Q1 2025 (now superseded by later updates).

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Production commencements occurred, but sales and shipment timelines slipped and are superseded.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-13 set H1/Q1 2025 targets.* Later updates from 2025-11-21/2025-10-13 shifted shipments to late 2025/2026 (supersedes earlier).

Cluster: Capacity Expansion and Global Footprint (Quantum Enrichment and New Plants)

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI committed to procure four additional QE production facilities and commission them during 2026 to expand the isotope portfolio (Yb second plant, then gadolinium, nickel, zinc).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Roadmap disclosed; construction starts in 2026; procurement status implied but not itemized.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call outlined 2026 commissioning goals.* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 noted long‑lead procurement commencement.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI will break ground on an Isotope Supercenter in Iceland and begin U.S./U.K. plants in 2026, aiming to start enrichment within 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 82%

Analysis: Construction start across three regions in 2026 is consistent with prior expansion disclosures.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call detailed Iceland/U.S./U.K. starts in 2026.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-20 MD&A signaled Iceland/U.S. expansion plans.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI will begin construction in 2026 of laser‑based enrichment plants for xenon, gadolinium, nickel, and zinc.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Target isotope list provided; timing aligns with procurement activities.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call specified 2026 construction for these isotopes.* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02/2025-08-26 noted long‑lead imports and acceleration.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI will complete initial production runs across its three operational plants and fulfill customer contracts through 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Three plants are operational and producing samples; customer deliveries scheduled for late 2025/2026.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call confirmed three plants operational producing commercial samples and set shipment timelines.* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 confirmed initial sample shipments and operations.

Commitment: September 02, 2025: ASPI planned to start construction in Q1 2026 of four new laser production plants after commencing procurement of long‑lead components for Gd‑160, Zn‑68, Ni‑64, and Li‑6/7.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Plan remains consistent with 2026 construction starts.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 outlined Q1 2026 construction start.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 reaffirmed 2026 construction timelines.

Commitment: August 26, 2025: ASPI accelerated plans to construct enrichment facilities in South Africa for Ni‑64, Gd‑160, and Zn‑68 after receiving the first permit to import controlled laser equipment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Permit receipt corroborates acceleration of local plant plans.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-26 confirmed permits and acceleration.

Commitment: May 20, 2025: ASPI outlined expansions with additional isotope enrichment plants in South Africa, Iceland, and the U.S. to diversify offerings and capacity.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Subsequent disclosures detail 2026 construction starts across these regions.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-20 MD&A described geographic expansion plans.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 set 2026 construction across regions.

Cluster: Radiopharmacy and Biotech Expansion

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI will invest capital‑efficiently to grow PET Labs in South Africa and the U.S., expand therapeutics (e.g., lutetium‑177), and acquire/expand U.S. radiopharmacies, with initial Lu‑177 shipments begun in South Africa.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: PET Labs expansion and U.S. entry via acquisition confirmed; revenue growth supports momentum; Lu‑177 initiation noted.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call cited PET Labs growth, SPECT commissioning, and U.S. acquisitions/term sheet.* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-13 confirmed Florida acquisition and expansion strategy.

Commitment: October 13, 2025: ASPI acquired a Florida radiopharmacy to expand PET Labs internationally, expecting to start PET services from 2027 and be accretive to 2026 results.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Acquisition closed; accretion and service start timelines disclosed.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-13 confirmed acquisition and timelines.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 reiterated U.S. radiopharmacy expansion.

Commitment: October 13, 2025: ASPI is pursuing additional U.S. and international PET Labs acquisitions with a non‑binding term sheet signed for a second U.S. acquisition.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Term sheet signed; ongoing M&A pipeline noted on earnings call.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-13 announced the term sheet.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 confirmed another radiopharmacy under term sheet.

Commitment: October 13, 2025: ASPI expects four biotechnology assets to enter Phase I human clinical trials in South Africa during 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Timelines stated; no contradictory updates; remains prospective.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-13 outlined 2026 Phase I expectations.

Commitment: September 02, 2025: PET Labs is on track to dispense a record number of radiopharmaceutical doses in 2025 as capacity expands.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Operational expansion and revenues (+24% YTD by Q3) support execution; final 2025 tally not yet disclosed.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 stated record‑dose trajectory.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 showed YTD radiopharma revenue growth.

Commitment: September 02, 2025: PET Labs will continue providing all treatments to children under 18 free of charge, reinforcing social impact.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Ongoing policy commit; no conflicting updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 reiterated the policy.

Commitment: July 28, 2025: IsoBio, backed by ASPI, will develop targeted radiotherapies and partner with ASPI to create novel radioisotopes, advancing toward clinical trials.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Seed financing completed; alignment with PET Labs/therapeutics roadmap.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-28 confirmed IsoBio seed financing and development plans.

Cluster: Renergen Acquisition and Integration

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI committed to complete the Renergen acquisition pending one remaining regulatory approval expected imminently, updating prior expectations of a Q3 2025 close.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Only one regulatory approval outstanding (exchange control); integration planning continues.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call noted one remaining approval.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-08/2025-07-25 showed prior approvals and high shareholder support.

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI will complete Phase 1C at Renergen to bring the plant to nameplate capacity by the end of Q1 (de‑risking the project).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Management emphasis on Phase 1C progress; end‑Q1 target stands.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call emphasized Phase 1C progress and urgency.

Commitment: September 02, 2025: ASPI anticipated closing the Renergen merger during Q3 2025 (now superseded by November 21, 2025 status).

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: Q3 closing did not occur; superseded by updated timeline.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 anticipated Q3 close.* A later update from 2025-11-21 moved closing to post‑Q3 pending one approval (supersedes earlier).

Commitment: September 02, 2025: Renergen is expected to deliver at least $20 million in revenues and be cash‑flow positive in 2026 post‑combination.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Outcome contingent on closing; no contrary data; remains guidance.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 set 2026 expectations.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 indicated closing still pending; guidance not withdrawn.

Commitment: September 02, 2025: The transaction is expected to be highly accretive to ASPI’s 2026 revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and cash flow per share.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Accretion remains management guidance contingent on timely close and ramp.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 stated accretive expectations.* No later evidence contradicting accretion assumptions.

Commitment: August 08, 2025: ASPI reiterated that strategic synergies from the Renergen merger are expected to begin in 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Synergy timing remains aligned with 2026 trajectories pending close.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-08 set synergy start in 2026.

Commitment: July 25, 2025: ASPI confirmed the acquisition is expected to become effective in Q3 2025 with an EBITDA target of over $300 million by 2030 for the combined entity (closing timeline later updated).

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: Q3 effective date missed; long‑term EBITDA target remains, but timing was superseded.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-25 targeted Q3 effectiveness.* A later update from 2025-11-21 shifted closing beyond Q3 (supersedes earlier).

Cluster: Nuclear Waste Processing and Circularity

Commitment: November 21, 2025: ASPI/QLE will commercialize KUBE technology to convert Cs‑137 into Ba‑137 pending regulatory approval, reducing waste hazards and creating commercial isotopes.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 65%

Analysis: Commercialization intent stated; related ecosystem progress (Skyline/Supercritical strategy) acknowledged, but specific KUBE regulatory milestones not detailed.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call referenced acquisition/control steps to secure feedstocks and related assets.* No specific later evidence confirming KUBE regulatory submissions or pilots.

Commitment: October 23, 2025: QLE will develop Creber Units to process water‑soluble nuclear waste (e.g., Cs‑137, Sr‑90), targeting development over the next eighteen months.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Asset acquisition closed; engineering partner engaged; timeline established.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-23 confirmed acquisition and the 18‑month development target.

Commitment: October 23, 2025: QLE will offer Creber Units in modular sizes (Micro, Mini, Midi, Maxi) with mobile/emergency‑response options to shorten timelines to revenue.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Product strategy defined in transaction documentation.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-23 outlined modular product sizes and deployment options.

Commitment: October 23, 2025: QLE will initially target Cs‑137 for Creber processing to yield stable Ba‑137 with ion‑trap quantum computing applications.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Initial isotope target and application articulated.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-23 detailed Cs‑137 to Ba‑137 conversion focus.

Commitment: October 23, 2025: QLE agreed to potential earn‑out payments of $6 million (validated Mini) and $11 million (validated Midi/Maxi) upon completion of validated operational units.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Earn‑out terms embedded in acquisition agreement; milestones define validation endpoints.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-23 set the earn‑out structure and validation criteria.

Commitment: October 23, 2025: QLE engaged B‑Con Engineering to develop and validate a Mini unit (~18 months) followed by a Midi/Maxi (~additional 18 months), with milestone‑based funding and acceptance testing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Execution partner and phased validation plan established.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-23 confirmed B‑Con engagement and timelines.

Commitment: October 23, 2025: QLE will pay a 6% royalty on net revenues for 15 years per product, terminating if commercialization fails by the fourth anniversary of closing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Royalty and termination terms documented; commercialization window defined.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-23 detailed royalty and termination provisions.

Cluster: Academic Partnerships and Talent Pipeline

Commitment: November 28, 2025: ASPI endowed and established a new Photonics Chair at the University of Witwatersrand under a three‑year donation agreement to advance research.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Chair endowed and announced; program launched as planned.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-28 confirmed endowment and launch.

Commitment: November 28, 2025: ASPI committed three‑year support to the Structured Light Laboratory’s photonics R&D to translate fundamental research into applications relevant to ASP’s quantum enrichment technologies.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Multi‑year support is part of the endowed program; focus aligned to core technologies.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-28 detailed the three‑year support and objectives.

Commitment: November 28, 2025: The program will build a pipeline of students and candidates for ASP Isotopes to support its expanding quantum enrichment program.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Pipeline outcomes will manifest over time; foundational steps in place.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-28 articulated talent pipeline goals tied to the Chair and lab support.

Commitment: November 28, 2025: Dr. Angela Dudley will serve as the inaugural Photonics Chair to lead research, mentorship, and collaboration.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Appointment named and announced.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-28 confirmed Dr. Dudley’s appointment.

Cluster: Stakeholder Engagement and Transparency

Commitment: October 10, 2025: ASPI hosted an Institutional Investor Access Event in South Africa on November 11–13, 2025, with potential Renergen site visit on November 14 subject to demand.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Event was scheduled with detailed agenda; no explicit post‑event confirmation provided in summaries.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-10 announced the event dates and potential Renergen visit.* No later evidence confirming execution; earnings call timing suggests it likely proceeded.

Commitment: October 10, 2025: ASPI committed to provide site access to all three enrichment facilities and PET Labs, presentations, and Q&A during the November event.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Planned access and sessions disclosed; lack of post‑event report limits confirmation.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-10 described planned access and sessions.

Commitment: October 10, 2025: Attendees were required to submit passport copies by October 21, 2025 for security clearances to visit secure facilities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Procedural requirement communicated and time‑bound.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-10 provided the submission deadline and rationale.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: ASPI committed to commence quarterly online business updates and investor Q&A sessions starting in November 2025.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: November earnings call occurred, but not explicitly labeled as the new quarterly online Q&A series; insufficient detail to confirm format.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 committed to quarterly online updates starting November.* A recent update from 2025-11-21 earnings call provided broad company updates, but formal series confirmation is unclear.

Commitment: August 26, 2025: ASPI reaffirmed its commitment to transparency and regular investor access to facilities as an ongoing practice.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Multiple investor access efforts (October announcement; November event planning) support this.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-26 reaffirmed transparency and access.* Later 2025-10-10 event planning aligned with this commitment.

Commitment: September 02, 2025: ASPI committed to host investor access events and quarterly investor presentations, including a second investor trip planned for February 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: November event planning aligns; February 2026 trip planning remains prospective.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-02 set the ongoing cadence and February 2026 plan.* 2025-10-10 confirmed the November event logistics.