ASPI

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: Deliveries under largest Silicon-28 supply contract (initial deliveries)

Certainty: 85% | Timing: Q1 2026
Impact: Revenue ramp from electronic gases; management previously cited $50–$70M potential 2026–2027 demand from Si-28 and Yb-176 combined.
Reasoning: Announced “largest silicon-28 contract to date” with deliveries expected during Q1 2026 (Press release, Oct 13, 2025, Business Developments/Outlook). Management’s letter quantified demand for Si-28 and Yb-176 ($50–$70M, 2026–2027) (Shareholder Letter, Sep 2, 2025, Financial Performance). No later document contradicts or completes these deliveries.

Catalyst: Delivery of enriched Barium-137 purchase order

Certainty: 85% | Timing: Q1 2026
Impact: Adds new quantum computing materials revenue stream; supports multi-isotope electronic gases strategy.
Reasoning: PO received with delivery scheduled Q1 2026 (Press release, Sep 30, 2025, Business Developments/Outlook). No subsequent document reports completion; therefore pending.

Catalyst: First shipment of Carbon-12

Certainty: 80% | Timing: December 2025
Impact: Initiates commercial sales from carbon enrichment line; supports near-term revenue.
Reasoning: Q3 FY2025 call guided to “shipment of carbon-12 in December 2025” (Earnings call transcript, Nov 21, 2025, Outlook). Earlier guidance (Aug 26, 2025 Corporate Access Event) expected first supply in September 2025; the Nov 21 call is more recent and supersedes earlier timing.

Catalyst: Initial commercial quantities for Ytterbium-176 and Carbon-14

Certainty: 80% | Timing: H1 2026
Impact: Expands product mix and revenue; addresses oncology isotope supply and research/industrial demand.
Reasoning: “Expect delivery of initial commercial quantities in H1 2026 for certain products (ytterbium-176, carbon-14)” (Earnings call transcript, Nov 21, 2025, Outlook).

Catalyst: Commence construction of new enrichment plants (Iceland “Isotope Supercenter,” U.S., U.K.)

Certainty: 65% | Timing: 2026 (start)
Impact: Step-change production capacity across xenon, gadolinium, nickel, zinc, etc.; long-term revenue growth.
Reasoning: Management plan to “commence construction of multiple new isotope enrichment plants in 2026” (Earnings call transcript, Nov 21, 2025, Outlook). No later updates altering this plan.

Catalyst: Commissioning of SPECT radiopharmacy and PET Labs network expansion

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Incremental radiopharma revenue and margin mix improvement; supports U.S. expansion strategy.
Reasoning: “SPECT pharmacy commissioning” and broader radiopharmacy footprint expansion noted (Earnings call transcript, Nov 21, 2025, Business Developments). Florida acquisition already completed (Press release, Oct 13, 2025), so remaining catalysts are commissioning and further expansion.

Catalyst: Gadolinium-160 supply agreement deliveries commence

Certainty: 90% | Timing: 2026 start
Impact: Contracted revenue floor of ~$1M per annum; supports Tb-161 therapy supply chains.
Reasoning: Four-year agreement with minimum ~$1M per year commencing 2026 (Press release, Jun 4, 2025, Business Developments/Financial Performance). No later document negates the start date.

Regulatory Events

Catalyst: UK HALEU program – submission of nuclear site licence and environmental permit applications; progression through ONR Early Engagement

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Not specified (licensing pathway “within this decade”)
Impact: Enables sovereign HALEU capability in the UK; strategic positioning for advanced reactor fuel supply.
Reasoning: QLE Ltd confirmed Early Engagement with ONR; preparing site licence and environmental permit applications; DESNZ due diligence passed (Press release, Nov 5, 2025, Business Developments/Outlook). The pathway timing (“within this decade”) is internal estimate; applications are the next specific pending step.

Catalyst: South Africa HALEU facility – permits/licences to construct and operate; initial operations

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Facility target 2027 operations; 10-year supply from 2028 (per contracts)
Impact: 15 MTU/year HALEU capacity; long-term contracted revenue under TerraPower agreements.
Reasoning: Definitive agreements with TerraPower include loan support and supply (Press release, May 19, 2025, Business Developments/Outlook; MD&A, May 20, 2025). Both documents state the facility is “subject to necessary permits and licenses.” No later document reports permits granted.

Catalyst: Regulatory engagement for Creber nuclear waste decontamination units (commercialization path)

Certainty: 55% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Opens new revenue vertical in nuclear waste processing if approvals achieved.
Reasoning: QLE states commercialization will require review with NRC, DOE, Nuclear Waste Services, and other global regulators (Press release, Oct 23, 2025, Outlook). Development roadmap milestones (see Testing and Development) precede regulatory submissions.

Testing and Development

Catalyst: Validate Creber Mini Unit (water-soluble nuclear waste decontamination)

Certainty: 55% | Timing: ~18 months from Oct 21, 2025 (estimated)
Impact: Triggers up to $6M contingent consideration and enables scale-up to Midi/Maxi; foundational for commercialization.
Reasoning: Development roadmap estimates ~$4.5M over 18 months to validate the Mini Unit, followed by further scale-up (Press release, Oct 23, 2025, Outlook/Financial Performance). Regulatory approvals will follow (see Regulatory Events).

Catalyst: PET Labs’ four biotechnology assets to enter Phase I clinical trials in South Africa

Certainty: 70% | Timing: 2026
Impact: Potential to expand radiotherapeutic pipeline and drive future dose revenues; strategic differentiation.
Reasoning: Company expects PET Labs’ four biotech assets to enter Phase I during 2026 (Press release, Oct 13, 2025, Outlook). No later document updates or contradicts this timeline.

Catalyst: QLE demonstration plants targeting lithium and uranium (U.S.)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: De-risks technology application to new materials; supports future commercial offerings (LEU Plus/HALEU roadmap).
Reasoning: QLE “progressing toward spin-out” with “demonstration plants targeting lithium and uranium,” U.S. HQ (Austin) and commercial ops planned (Amarillo) (Earnings call transcript, Nov 21, 2025, Outlook). No dates provided.

Funding Opportunities

Catalyst: Additional closings of QLE convertible notes to non-U.S. investors (Reg S)

Certainty: 45% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Potential incremental capital to accelerate laser enrichment production build-out.
Reasoning: Initial $64.3M notes definitive purchase agreement announced with intent to issue additional Notes in subsequent closings under Regulation S (Press release, Nov 7, 2025, Outlook/Financial Performance). Subsequent earnings call (Nov 21, 2025) confirms $64.3M secured but does not confirm additional closings, leaving them pending.

Market Dynamics

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Shareholder Actions

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Strategic Transactions

Catalyst: Closing of Renergen Limited acquisition (final regulatory approval – exchange control)

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified (pending exchange control approval)
Impact: Expected to be highly accretive to 2026 revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and cash flow per share; creates integrated critical materials platform (helium + isotopes).
Reasoning: As of the Q3 FY2025 call, acquisition “nearing completion pending one regulatory approval (exchange control)” (Earnings call transcript, Nov 21, 2025, Business Developments). Earlier guidance expected Q3 2025 close (Press releases May 20, 2025; Jul 11, 2025; Jul 25, 2025; Aug 8, 2025), which did not occur. More recent Nov 21 guidance controls. Multiple prior documents describe accretion and strategic rationale (e.g., Jul 25, 2025 and Aug 8, 2025 press releases, Financial Performance/Outlook).

Catalyst: IPO/spin-out of Quantum Leap Energy (QLE)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified (subject to SEC review and market conditions)
Impact: Potential value-unlock for nuclear fuels business; provides dedicated capital access for HALEU/Li-6 initiatives.
Reasoning: QLE confidentially submitted draft S-1 for proposed IPO (Press release, Nov 12, 2025, Business Developments/Outlook). Earnings call (Nov 21, 2025) reiterates progress toward spin-out. Shareholder communication throughout 2025 references spin-out plans; no definitive timing provided.

Catalyst: Formation of JV entity and site advancement with Fermi America at HyperGrid Campus (Texas) for HALEU and fuel-cycle services

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified (Fermi campus construction targeted 2027; JV formation pending)
Impact: Establishes U.S.-based advanced nuclear fuel supply chain; potential long-term HALEU volumes (TerraPower contracts noted separately).
Reasoning: Joint Venture MOU executed; envisages HALEU facility and separate ASPI-owned stable isotope facility lease (Press release, Aug 15, 2025, Business Developments/Outlook). As an MOU, further definitive agreements and development steps remain pending.

Catalyst: Completion of additional U.S. radiopharmacy acquisition (under signed term sheet)

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Accretive expansion of PET Labs’ U.S. footprint; complements Florida acquisition (accretive to 2026 revenue/EBITDA/EPS).
Reasoning: “Another radiopharmacy under term sheet” (Earnings call transcript, Nov 21, 2025, Business Developments). Florida transaction closed and expected to be accretive (Press release, Oct 13, 2025, Business Developments/Financial Performance); the term-sheet deal remains pending.

Catalyst: Proposed acquisition of Supercritical Technologies (critical material feedstocks)

Certainty: 55% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Secures feedstock supply for enrichment roadmap; supports scaling electronic gases and nuclear materials.
Reasoning: “Proposed acquisition of Supercritical Technologies to secure critical material feedstocks” (Earnings call transcript, Nov 21, 2025, Business Developments). Described as proposed; no subsequent completion notice provided.

Other Key Events

Catalyst: Paul Mann to resume CEO role

Certainty: 95% | Timing: January 19, 2026
Impact: Leadership continuity; potential improvement in execution and investor confidence per management commentary.
Reasoning: Official company announcement states Mann will “resume his role as Chief Executive Officer effective January 19, 2026,” while continuing as Executive Chairman (Press release, Dec 2, 2025, Business Developments/Outlook). No contradictory later document exists.