WULF

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: Fluidstack Phase 1 – ~40 MW online in H1 2026

Certainty: 75% | Timing: H1 2026
Impact: Initial revenue ramp from Fluidstack’s multi‑year HPC colocation; anchors long‑duration contracted cash flows.
Reasoning: Documented rapid deployment schedule with “approximately 40 MW expected online in the first half of 2026” under two 10‑year colocation agreements exceeding 200 MW (Press release, Signing of AI Hosting Agreements with Fluidstack, 2025‑08‑14; Business Developments). No later document contradicts timing; subsequent 2025‑08‑18 update adds capacity (CB‑5) but does not change the H1’26 milestone.

Catalyst: Fluidstack Phase 1 – full deployment of 200+ MW by year‑end 2026

Certainty: 70% | Timing: By YE 2026
Impact: Scales recurring, high‑margin HPC colocation revenues; initial agreements represented ~$3.7B contracted revenue, potentially ~$8.7B with extensions (201%+ multi‑year visibility).
Reasoning: The 2025‑08‑14 announcement specifies “full deployment by year‑end 2026” for the initial 200+ MW (Press release, Signing of AI Hosting Agreements with Fluidstack; Business Developments/Financial Performance). Later 2025‑08‑18 expansion increases the overall campus plan but does not defer the Phase 1 target.

Catalyst: Fluidstack CB‑5 – 160 MW incremental building operations commence

Certainty: 85% | Timing: H2 2026
Impact: Adds 160 MW to Lake Mariner HPC capacity; company cites “total contracted revenue” rising to $6.7B and up to $16B with extensions after CB‑5 exercise, indicating substantial multi‑year cash flow uplift.
Reasoning: Fluidstack exercised its CB‑5 option; operations “expected to commence in the second half of 2026” (Press release, Fluidstack Expansion with 160 MW CB‑5 Lease at Lake Mariner, 2025‑08‑18; Business Developments/Outlook). This is a signed lease on the “same economic terms” as prior leases, increasing execution confidence.

Catalyst: Cayuga site – 138 MW of power “ready for service” and initial capacity build in 2026

Certainty: 70% | Timing: 2026
Impact: New site platform enabling up to 400 MW of digital infrastructure; supports future AI/HPC growth with sub‑$0.05/kWh power costs.
Reasoning: Company secured an 80‑year ground lease on ~183 acres; “138 MW… ready for service in 2026” and up to 400 MW development potential (Press release, Securing Long‑Term Ground Lease for HPC Infrastructure, 2025‑08‑14; Business Developments/Financial Performance/Outlook). No later documents modify this guidance.

Catalyst: Potential additional capacity expansions at Lake Mariner with Fluidstack

Certainty: 45% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Further multi‑year contracted revenue opportunity beyond the now‑contracted ~360 MW; incremental capital deployment and long‑duration cash flows possible.
Reasoning: “Ongoing discussions regarding additional capacity expansions” beyond CB‑3, CB‑4, and the newly executed CB‑5 (Press release, Fluidstack Expansion with 160 MW CB‑5 Lease, 2025‑08‑18; Business Developments/Outlook). Discussions are not definitive, so certainty remains below 50%.

Regulatory Events

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Testing and Development

Catalyst: Complete and commission 72.5 MW HPC hosting for Core42 in 2025 (final deliveries and ramp)

Certainty: 70% | Timing: 2025 (company remained “on schedule” as of 2025‑08‑08)
Impact: Transition to and scaling of HPC hosting revenue stream; management previously pointed to an inflection as HPC comes online.
Reasoning: Multiple disclosures:
- 2024‑12‑23 indicates phased releases “from Q1 to Q3 2025” (Press release, Data Center Lease Agreements with G42/Core42; Business Developments).
- Later 2025‑08‑08 update states “on schedule and on budget to deliver 72.5 MW… in 2025” and “expects to begin recognizing revenue from HPC hosting in Q3 2025” (Press release, Q2 2025 Results; Business Developments/Outlook).
Given the more recent 2025‑08‑08 guidance, we weight that timeline over the older 2024‑12‑23 phasing. No subsequent 2025 documents confirm completion; therefore, final commissioning/ramp remains an actionable late‑2025 milestone.

Catalyst: Cayuga adjacent renewables and storage development (67 MW solar and 800 MWh BESS)

Certainty: 50% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Potential to enhance site economics, resiliency, and sustainability profile; could lower effective power costs and support premium HPC workloads.
Reasoning: Company “plans to develop a 67 MW solar installation and an 800 MWh battery energy storage system” at Cayuga (Press release, Securing Long‑Term Ground Lease for HPC Infrastructure, 2025‑08‑14; Financial Performance/Outlook). Plans are stated but without a firm schedule or permits in the provided materials.

Funding Opportunities

Catalyst: Close $3.2B 7.750% senior secured notes due 2030 (Rule 144A) to fund Lake Mariner Data Center Expansion

Certainty: 80% | Timing: Expected closing October 23, 2025
Impact: Material project financing to fund a portion of Lake Mariner expansion; de‑risks multi‑year buildout for Fluidstack/AI HPC, though increases leverage and fixed interest obligations. Collateral package includes first‑priority liens and, pre‑completion, a pledge by Google LLC of TeraWulf warrants; TeraWulf provides completion guarantees.
Reasoning:
- 2025‑10‑16: “Priced… $3.2B… 7.750%… due 2030… expected to close October 23, 2025, subject to market and other conditions” (Press release, Pricing of $3.2B of Senior Secured Notes; Business Developments/Outlook).
- 2025‑10‑14: Prior “proposed offering” (Press release, Proposed Offering; Business Developments) is superseded by the 2025‑10‑16 pricing; we follow the more recent document per instruction.
The “expected to close” language and “subject to” conditions keep certainty below 90%.

Market Dynamics

Catalyst: Progress toward increasing Lake Mariner interconnection from 500 MW to up to 750 MW

Certainty: 50% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Additional headroom for future HPC/AI and potential mining loads, enabling larger contracted capacity and higher long‑term revenues as power availability scales.
Reasoning: Company “secured interconnection approval to draw 500 MW… with plans to reach up to 750 MW” (Press release, Q2 2025 Results, 2025‑08‑08; Business Developments/Outlook). Plans are not yet dated or confirmed in later documents provided.

Shareholder Actions

Catalyst: Potential continued execution of up to $200M share repurchase authorization through December 31, 2025

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Through 12/31/2025
Impact: Potential EPS accretion/support; capital return optionality alongside growth capex and financings.
Reasoning:
- Authorization announced 2024‑10‑23 for up to $200M through 12/31/2025 (Press release, Authorization of Share Repurchase Program; Business Developments/Outlook).
- Company reported significant execution: “authorized $200 million… executed over $150 million… to date” as of 2025‑02‑28 (Press release, FY2024 Results, 2025‑02‑28; Business Developments).
- 2025‑05‑09 noted $33M repurchased to date in 2025 (Press release, Q1 2025 Results; Business Developments/Quotes).
No later document rescinds the authorization; remaining capacity suggests ongoing potential in 2025, subject to discretion and capital priorities.

Strategic Transactions

Catalyst: Potential strategic site acquisitions to extend capacity beyond Lake Mariner’s 750 MW potential

Certainty: 40% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Would expand development pipeline and geographic optionality for future HPC deployments; could require incremental capital.
Reasoning:
- 2024‑10‑23: Company “evaluating strategic opportunities, including potential site acquisitions” (Press release, Share Repurchase Authorization; Business Developments/Outlook).
- 2025‑01‑03: “Evaluating strategic site acquisition opportunities to extend beyond the 750 MW potential at Lake Mariner” (Press release, December 2024 Production & Operations Update; Business Developments/Outlook).
No subsequent confirmation of a signed transaction in later 2025 documents.

Other Key Events

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.