WULF

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: Begin HPC hosting revenue recognition from Core42 in Q3 2025 and complete delivery of 72.5 MW in 2025

Certainty: 85% | Timing: Q3 2025 (revenue start); By year-end 2025 (72.5 MW delivery)Impact: Initiates a new, high‑margin revenue stream; management called this a key financial inflection point. Prior guidance indicated the Core42 HPC leases are expected to generate ~$1 billion in cumulative revenue over initial 10-year terms.Reasoning: - The company stated it “expects to begin recognizing revenue from HPC hosting in Q3 2025” and remains “on schedule and on budget to deliver 72.5 MW … in 2025.” Source: Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results press release, Published 2025-08-08 (document_8; Outlook and Business Developments).- Earlier guidance expected HPC revenue to begin in Q2 2025 (First Quarter 2025 Financial Results announcement, Published 2025-05-09, document_11; Outlook). The 2025-08-08 update supersedes and shifts commencement to Q3 2025 (recency precedence).- The Q4/FY 2024 results press release referenced ~$1 billion in cumulative revenue over initial 10-year terms tied to the initial HPC contracts (Published 2025-02-28, document_14; Business Developments and Outlook).

Catalyst: Fluidstack initial deployment at Lake Mariner (~40 MW) expected online in H1 2026

Certainty: 80% | Timing: H1 2026Impact: Begins ramp of large, contracted HPC revenue; part of agreements anchoring multi‑billion contracted revenue. Early tranche should start revenue contribution ahead of full-scale deployment.Reasoning: - “Approximately 40 MW [is] expected online in the first half of 2026,” within two 10‑year colocation agreements representing over 200 MW of critical IT load and ~$3.7 billion in contracted revenues (Published 2025-08-14, document_5; Business Developments and Financial Performance).- No subsequent document contradicts this timeline; a later announcement adds CB‑5 capacity but preserves H1 2026 commencement for the initial tranche.

Catalyst: Fluidstack full deployment (>200 MW) by year-end 2026 at Lake Mariner

Certainty: 75% | Timing: By year-end 2026Impact: Material revenue and cash flow ramp under long‑term, high‑margin hosting contracts; initial agreements cited ~$3.7 billion contracted (potential to ~$8.7 billion with extensions), later updated totals reflect larger scope.Reasoning: - “Full deployment by year-end 2026” under the two 10‑year colocation agreements (Published 2025-08-14, document_5; Business Developments and Outlook).- Subsequent expansion increased total contracted revenue to ~$6.7 billion (potential ~$16 billion with lease extensions) after CB‑5 (Published 2025-08-18, document_4; Financial Performance and Outlook). The 2025-08-18 figures supersede 2025-08-14 totals.

Catalyst: Fluidstack CB‑5 lease adds 160 MW; operations expected to commence in H2 2026

Certainty: 78% | Timing: H2 2026Impact: Expands Fluidstack contracted load at Lake Mariner to ~360 MW; underpins multi‑billion contracted revenue base; Google increased its backstop to ~$3.2 billion, signaling counterparty strength.Reasoning: - “Fluidstack exercised its option to expand … with CB‑5, a new … data center building” adding 160 MW; “operations … expected to commence in the second half of 2026.” Also: “Lake Mariner’s total contracted critical IT load for Fluidstack increases to approximately 360 MW,” with Google’s total backstop ~ $3.2 billion (Published 2025-08-18, document_4; Business Developments, Financial Performance, and Outlook).- No subsequent document revises this timing.

Catalyst: Cayuga site: 138 MW of low‑cost power ready for service in 2026; scalable to 400 MW

Certainty: 70% | Timing: 2026 (138 MW ready for service); longer‑term scale to 400 MWImpact: Provides additional, low‑cost, predominantly zero‑carbon capacity to contract with enterprise/hyperscale HPC customers; supports multi‑site growth and diversification beyond Lake Mariner.Reasoning: - “The site is expected to have 138 MW of low‑cost … power ready for service in 2026” and “allows for the development of up to 400 MW” (Published 2025-08-14, document_6; Business Developments and Outlook).- Power cost averages below $0.05/kWh (document_6; Financial Performance), which enhances hosting margins.

Catalyst: Core42 option for an additional 135 MW of capacity (delivery targeted early 2026 if exercised)

Certainty: 55% | Timing: Early 2026 (if exercised; not specified otherwise)Impact: Would expand the Core42 footprint materially, increasing contracted revenue beyond the initial 72.5 MW; accelerates HPC mix and operating leverage.Reasoning: - “Core42 retains a time‑limited option for an additional 135 MW of capacity to be delivered in early 2026” (December 2024/January 2025 disclosures: Published 2025-01-03, document_16; Outlook, and Published 2024-12-23, document_17; Business Developments).- More recent documents focus on Fluidstack expansion and do not reaffirm this option; absent contradiction, inclusion is warranted at lower certainty per recency weighting.

Catalyst: Potential signing of additional HPC customers (process advanced)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Would bolster contracted backlog and support management’s target of 200–250 MW operational by year‑end 2026; diversifies tenant base and de‑risks ramp.Reasoning: - “Advanced process to secure additional HPC customers is underway” and the company is “targeting 200–250 MW operational by year‑end 2026” (Published 2025-08-08, document_8; Business Developments and Outlook).- No subsequent document specifies timing or identities; remains a meaningful but unscheduled growth lever.

Regulatory Events

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Testing and Development

Catalyst: Development of a 67 MW solar installation and an 800 MWh battery energy storage system at Cayuga

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Would lower effective power costs, enhance reliability, and strengthen zero‑carbon positioning—improving margins and customer appeal for HPC workloads at Cayuga.Reasoning: - The company “plans to develop a 67 MW solar installation and an 800 MWh battery energy storage system” adjacent to the Cayuga leased area (Published 2025-08-14, document_6; Financial Performance).- No schedule was provided; treated as a development plan pending execution milestones.

Funding Opportunities

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Market Dynamics

Catalyst: Hedging and market activities by capped call counterparties related to the 1.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 may affect the stock and/or notes

Certainty: 90% | Timing: Near term and as hedges are adjusted over timeImpact: Potentially increases stock price volatility around issuance, hedging adjustments, and significant price moves toward cap levels; not a fundamental earnings driver but can influence short‑term trading dynamics.Reasoning: - The company disclosed that “related hedging and market activities by counterparties could affect the market price of the common stock or the Convertible Notes” in connection with capped call transactions tied to the new converts (Published 2025-08-18, document_2; Outlook).- This is an explicit company statement; no later document retracts it.

Shareholder Actions

Catalyst: Potential additional repurchases under the $200 million share repurchase authorization through December 31, 2025

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Through 2025 (discretionary; not scheduled)Impact: Accretive to EPS and supports share price; prior executions totaled over $150 million including ~$115 million concurrent with the 2024 convert, signaling willingness to utilize the program.Reasoning: - Authorization of a $200 million repurchase program running through 2025 (Published 2024-10-23, document_26; Business Developments).- Executions to date referenced in subsequent disclosures: ~$115 million repurchased with the 2024 convert closing (Published 2024-10-25, document_24; Business Developments) and $33 million repurchased year‑to‑date by Q1 2025 (Published 2025-05-09, document_11; Business Developments). Future use remains at management’s discretion; no fixed schedule.

Strategic Transactions

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Other Key Events

Catalyst: Plan to expand grid draw capability from 500 MW (approved) to up to 750 MW at Lake Mariner

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specifiedImpact: Enables additional HPC capacity beyond current commitments, supporting longer‑term growth and tenant diversification; underpins multi‑year expansion runway.Reasoning: - “Interconnection approval to draw 500 MW from the grid has been secured, with plans to reach up to 750 MW” (Published 2025-08-08, document_8; Business Developments).- No timeline provided for reaching 750 MW; treated as a strategic infrastructure plan pending further updates.