WULF

Growth Opportunities

Catalyst: Abernathy (TX) 168 MW AI compute JV facility delivery

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Second half of 2026
Impact: Multi‑year contracted revenue ramp (~$9.5 billion to the JV over 25 years; TeraWulf 51% stake). Execution toward on‑time delivery should be stock‑positive; delays/capex overruns (estimated $8–$10 million/MW) could weigh on sentiment.
Reasoning: Press release (Oct 28, 2025) “TeraWulf Expands Strategic Partnership with Fluidstack…” — Outlook section states “facility expected to be delivered in the second half of 2026,” JV size 168 MW and ~$9.5B contracted revenue; Google providing ~$1.3B lease backstop to support project debt (Document 5, Business Developments/Financial Performance/Outlook).

Catalyst: Lake Mariner CB‑5 (NY) 160 MW operations commencement

Certainty: 75% | Timing: Second half of 2026
Impact: Adds large, contracted HPC capacity; press release cites $6.7B contracted revenue (potential up to $16B with extensions) and expanded Google backstop to ~$3.2B. Milestone achievements and energization updates could drive re‑rating.
Reasoning: Press release (Aug 18, 2025) “Fluidstack … 160 MW CB‑5 Lease at Lake Mariner” — Operations for CB‑5 “expected to commence in the second half of 2026,” contracted revenue metrics, and Google backstop details (Document 11, Business Developments/Financial Performance/Outlook).

Catalyst: Cayuga (NY) site – initial 138 MW “ready for service” power availability

Certainty: 70% | Timing: 2026
Impact: Material expansion runway for HPC/AI infrastructure; revenue impact depends on subsequent tenant contracting. Positive strategic optionality; stock reaction likely tied to follow‑on customer/financing announcements.
Reasoning: Press release (Aug 14, 2025) “Securing Long‑Term Ground Lease for HPC Infrastructure” — site “expected to have 138 MW … ready for service in 2026” with up to 400 MW development potential (Document 13, Business Developments/Outlook).

Catalyst: Additional HPC contracting (management target of 250–500 MW per year)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: New long‑duration, investment‑grade‑backed contracts would expand backlog and visibility; announcements likely stock‑positive given valuation sensitivity to contracted HPC cash flows.
Reasoning: Preliminary Q3 update (Oct 28, 2025) targets 250–500 MW per year (Document 4, Outlook). Reiterated growth stance in Abernathy JV release (Oct 28, 2025) (Document 5, Outlook). No specific counterparties/timelines disclosed.

Catalyst: Initial 40 MW HPC online (first half 2026) under earlier Fluidstack agreements

Certainty: 55% | Timing: First half of 2026
Impact: Earlier‑than‑H2‑2026 revenue contribution if achieved; confirmation could incrementally de‑risk 2026 EBITDA.
Reasoning: Press release (Aug 14, 2025) “Signing of AI Hosting Agreements with Fluidstack” — “approximately 40 MW expected online in the first half of 2026” (Document 12, Outlook). More recent documents emphasize H2’26 milestones (Documents 11 & 5); absence of later reaffirmation reduces certainty per recency preference.

Regulatory Events

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Testing and Development

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Funding Opportunities

Catalyst: Closing/funding confirmation of $3.2 billion Senior Secured Notes due 2030 (Lake Mariner expansion)

Certainty: 65% | Timing: Expected Oct 23, 2025 (closing not subsequently confirmed)
Impact: De‑risks capital needs for Lake Mariner data center expansion; adds leverage at 7.750% coupon; confirmation likely stock‑moving (reduces financing overhang).
Reasoning: Pricing press release (Oct 16, 2025) states offering “expected to close on October 23, 2025” (Document 6, Business Developments/Outlook). No subsequent document (through Oct 31, 2025) confirms closing; most current documents take precedence, so treatment remains pending with qualified certainty.

Catalyst: Project‑level debt financing for Abernathy JV (supported by ~$1.3B Google lease backstop)

Certainty: 60% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Secures non‑recourse capital for 168 MW build; improves returns and shields corporate balance sheet; financing milestones could be stock‑positive.
Reasoning: Abernathy JV press release (Oct 28, 2025) notes Google is “backing approximately $1.3 billion of Fluidstack’s long‑term lease obligations to support project‑related debt financing” (Document 5, Business Developments/Financial Performance). Specific terms/timing not disclosed.

Market Dynamics

No catalysts in this category were identified for this company based on the provided documents.

Shareholder Actions

Catalyst: Potential shareholder authorization to increase shares for 2031 converts share settlement

Certainty: 40% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: If pursued and approved, enables share settlement to preserve cash at conversion but increases potential dilution; could be modestly stock‑negative near vote, neutral‑to‑positive longer term via liquidity preservation.
Reasoning: Proposed 2031 converts announcement (Aug 18, 2025) notes the company “may elect share settlement subject to stockholder approval for an increase in authorized shares” (Document 10, Business Developments/Outlook). No subsequent document confirms a vote or approval; older guidance not reaffirmed in later releases.

Catalyst: Additional buybacks under existing $200 million authorization

Certainty: 55% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Supports per‑share metrics and downside; deployment pace vs. growth capex needs will influence stock reaction.
Reasoning: FY2024 results (Feb 28, 2025) disclosed $200M authorization (Document 21, Business Developments). Q1’25 update (May 9, 2025) noted $33M repurchased YTD (Document 18, Business Developments). No schedule provided for further repurchases.

Strategic Transactions

Catalyst: Execution of next ~168 MW Fluidstack‑led project under exclusive right

Certainty: 45% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Would materially expand contracted HPC footprint and backlog; announcement could be stock‑positive, contingent on financing terms and delivery schedule.
Reasoning: Abernathy JV press release (Oct 28, 2025) grants TeraWulf “exclusive right to partner on the next ~168 MW Fluidstack‑led project” (Document 5, Business Developments). This is a right, not a firm commitment; no timing disclosed.

Catalyst: Development of subsequent phases at Abernathy campus (beyond initial 168 MW)

Certainty: 50% | Timing: Not specified
Impact: Additional capacity would extend multi‑year revenue visibility; stock reaction will hinge on contract quality, pricing, and capital structure.
Reasoning: Same press release (Oct 28, 2025) notes JV “right to develop subsequent phases at the Abernathy campus” (Document 5, Business Developments/Outlook). Specific phase sizes/timelines not provided.

Other Key Events

Catalyst: Release of full Q3 2025 results

Certainty: 95% | Timing: November 2025
Impact: Stock likely to react to confirmation vs. preliminary guidance (revenue $48–$52M; adjusted EBITDA $15–$19M) and any 2026 outlook detail on HPC ramps and financing.
Reasoning: Preliminary results press release (Oct 28, 2025) states “expects to release full third quarter results in November 2025” and provides preliminary ranges (Document 4, Financial Performance/Outlook).