RKLB

Cluster: Synspective Constellation Deployment on Electron

Commitment: October 14, 2025: Perform a series of 21 dedicated Electron launches for Synspective between now and the end of the decade, establishing Electron as the primary launcher for their constellation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The first mission of the new 21-launch series (“Owl New World”) flew successfully on 2025-10-14, confirming program initiation and cadence. Newer disclosures confirm Electron as primary launcher and detail the multi-year series through decade-end.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-14 confirms the first of 21 new dedicated Synspective launches successfully deployed the seventh StriX satellite and reiterated the 21-launch series.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-10-06 announced the 21-mission series and the “Owl New World” mission plan.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 detailed the second multi-launch agreement adding 10 more missions, bringing the total upcoming series to 21.

Commitment: October 14, 2025: Launch a total of 27 missions for Synspective, making Electron the primary launcher for their constellation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The 27 total missions reflect cumulative scope (prior 6+ missions plus 21 newly contracted). This newest figure supersedes earlier counts (e.g., 16, then 21 upcoming), clarifying total lifecycle commitment.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-14 states Rocket Lab “will launch a total of 27 missions for Synspective,” superseding prior total counts.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 and 2025-10-06 described the 21-launch series through decade-end; the 27 total includes already completed missions since 2020.

Commitment: October 06, 2025: Execute a 21-mission series to deploy Synspective’s Earth-imaging constellation before the end of the decade, superseding the earlier 16-mission plan announced in December 2024.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The 21-mission series is active; the first mission flew successfully on 2025-10-14. This commitment explicitly supersedes the prior 16-mission plan.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-14 confirms successful execution of the first mission in the 21-launch series.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 confirms contract expansion to 21 launches.

Commitment: October 06, 2025: Conduct the "Owl New World" mission to deploy Synspective’s seventh StriX satellite from Launch Complex 1 as the first of the new 21-mission series.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: Complete. “Owl New World” launched on 2025-10-14, deploying StriX-7 to a 583 km orbit as the series opener.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-14 confirms the mission flew successfully, deploying StriX-7 to its target orbit.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-10-06 set the launch window and outlined mission objectives.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Deliver a second multi-launch contract comprising 10 additional dedicated Electron launches for Synspective, bringing the total to 21 through the end of the decade.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Contract executed; the series began with the October flight. Later 2025 updates reaffirm the expanded total and cadence.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-14 marked the first launch executed under the expanded series.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 announced the second 10-launch deal, lifting the total to 21.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Perform the next 21 Synspective launches from Launch Complex 1 with schedule flexibility and meter-level deployment accuracy.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The first mission under this commitment launched as planned from LC-1 with the same precision Electron has demonstrated in prior Synspective missions. Further missions remain scheduled through decade-end.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-14 confirms the first LC-1 mission in the series was executed successfully.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 specified all 21 launches from LC-1 with tailored services.

Commitment: December 05, 2024: Serve as Synspective’s sole launch provider with 16 missions planned (superseded by the 21-launch series announced in September–October 2025).

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The “16 missions planned” was superseded by the larger 21-launch series. Sole-provider role remains intact; scope increased, making the original count obsolete.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-09-29 supersedes the 16-mission plan with a 21-launch series.
• Earlier evidence from 2024-12-05 reflected the prior 16-mission plan before expansion.

Cluster: iQPS Multi-Launch Program Expansion

Commitment: October 07, 2025: Conduct three additional dedicated Electron missions for iQPS no earlier than 2026, each deploying a single SAR satellite with the Motorized Lightband separation system, updating the previously booked campaign.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: New multi-launch contract signed, raising upcoming missions and extending cadence into 2026. This expands on earlier 2025–2026 plans.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-07 announced three additional dedicated Electron missions from 2026.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 confirmed eight dedicated launches booked across 2025–2026.

Commitment: August 05, 2025: Support iQPS in building their constellation with four more dedicated missions scheduled through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Four iQPS missions had flown by early August; additional dedicated missions were scheduled into 2026. Later October updates added three more 2026 launches without contradiction.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-07 confirms further expansion with three additional 2026 missions.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-05 and 2025-06-11/2025-08-05 reflects multiple completed launches and more scheduled.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Launch ‘The Harvest Goddess Thrives’ and three more dedicated iQPS missions through 2025–2026 toward a 100% mission success year.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The August 5 mission flew, marking the fifth iQPS deployment and sustaining the 2025 success streak; additional missions remain scheduled into 2026.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-05 confirms successful deployment for iQPS (69th Electron mission).
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 set the mission window for ‘The Harvest Goddess Thrives’.

Commitment: June 11, 2025: Execute a multi-launch contract with iQPS including at least four more dedicated missions across 2025–2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: This “at least four more” was subsequently expanded (eight total in Feb, then +3 more in Oct 2025). Newer commitments supersede the minimum count upward.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-07 added three 2026 missions beyond earlier plans, superseding the minimum.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 booked eight dedicated launches across 2025–2026.

Commitment: June 03, 2025: Target three Electron launches within 24 days as part of an eight-mission iQPS campaign across 2025–2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: June operations achieved rapid cadence, including two LC‑1 launches within 48 hours (June 26 and June 28), effectively surpassing the cadence target. Newer June records supersede the initial target.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-06-28 reports two launches from the same site within 48 hours and four launches in June.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-03 outlined the 24‑day multi‑launch cadence target.

Commitment: March 14, 2025: Execute a total of eight launches for iQPS across 2025–2026 to build out their SAR constellation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Four iQPS launches were completed by August 2025; additional 2025–2026 launches remain on manifest. October updates added three more no earlier than 2026 (new scope beyond the original eight).

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-07 confirms three additional 2026 missions beyond earlier bookings.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-05 and 2025-06-11 confirms multiple iQPS launches executed in 2025.

Commitment: March 03, 2025: Conduct a series of eight launches for iQPS with the first window opening March 10, 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The first launch occurred March 14, 2025, with subsequent missions following in May, June, and August, consistent with the eight-launch campaign.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-05 notes the fourth iQPS launch of 2025 completed.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-14 confirms the first iQPS mission in the series.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Book eight dedicated Electron launches for iQPS with six in 2025 and two in 2026, superseding the earlier four-mission plan.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The eight-launch deal superseded the February 4 four-launch plan; execution throughout 2025 substantiates progress.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-06-11 and 2025-08-05 details multiple launches executed under this agreement.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 announced the eight-launch booking, explicitly superseding the four-launch plan.

Commitment: February 04, 2025: Execute a four-mission iQPS contract with three launches in 2025 and one in 2026 (superseded by the eight-launch agreement announced February 27, 2025).

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Superseded by the larger eight-launch agreement on 2025-02-27; current scope is the expanded plan.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-02-27 supersedes the four-mission plan with eight.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-04 reflected the initial four-launch intent.

Cluster: Civil Space Agency Missions (NASA, ESA, JAXA)

Commitment: October 10, 2025: Perform two dedicated Electron launches for JAXA’s Innovative Satellite Technology Demonstration Program with the first in December 2025 and the second in 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Direct contract with JAXA signed; first dedicated mission set for December 2025, second for 2026.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-10 confirms the two dedicated JAXA launches and timing.

Commitment: October 10, 2025: Announce mission information for the first JAXA launch shortly ahead of the December 2025 mission.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Communication commitment preceding the December 2025 launch; contract and schedule confirmed; details pending as planned.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-10 states mission information will be announced shortly ahead of the December launch.

Commitment: June 25, 2025: Launch a dedicated Electron mission for ESA to deploy the first pair of LEO-PNT navigation satellites no earlier than December 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Contracted ESA LEO‑PNT mission is scheduled NET December 2025; no contrary updates.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-25 confirms selection and schedule for ESA’s LEO‑PNT launch.

Commitment: May 14, 2025: Launch NASA’s Aspera astrophysics mission no earlier than Q1 2026 to study the formation and evolution of galaxies.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Mission selection and timeline confirmed; no delays reported.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-14 confirms Aspera’s NET Q1 2026 launch on Electron.

Cluster: BlackSky Dedicated Launches

Commitment: June 02, 2025: Deliver an increasing cadence of dedicated launches to expand BlackSky’s Gen-3 constellation with more Electron missions in the months to come.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Tenth BlackSky mission flew June 2 following the February Gen‑3 launch; statements confirm more missions planned in 2025.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-06-02 confirms the 10th Electron mission for BlackSky and plans for additional launches.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-18 confirms the first 2025 Gen‑3 launch.

Commitment: May 22, 2025: Launch the “Full Stream Ahead” mission as part of a four-launch series deploying Gen-3 satellites for BlackSky starting May 28, 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: “Full Stream Ahead” launched successfully on June 2, initiating the four-launch series.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-06-02 confirms the successful “Full Stream Ahead” mission.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-22 announced the mission window and four-launch series.

Commitment: February 18, 2025: Ramp Electron launch cadence as the most prolific launch provider for BlackSky, highlighted by the ninth launch for BlackSky since 2019.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: February mission executed; tenth mission followed in June, confirming cadence ramp.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-06-02 confirms the 10th Electron mission for BlackSky.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-18 documents the ninth mission and cadence ramp.

Commitment: February 10, 2025: Launch multiple missions for BlackSky in 2025 with the first window opening February 18, 2025, continuing a longstanding partnership.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: First 2025 mission launched February 18; at least one additional launch executed June 2, consistent with “multiple.”

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-06-02 confirms another BlackSky mission executed after the February launch.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-10 set the first launch window.

Commitment: November 12, 2024: Commit to additional November–December 2024 Electron launches supporting BlackSky and other customers as part of a record annual cadence.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: 2024 closed with a record 16 launches; while specific Nov–Dec BlackSky flights aren’t enumerated here, record cadence and multiple late‑year missions occurred.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 and 2024-11-25 confirms record 2024 cadence and back-to-back late‑November launches (Kinéis and another mission), supporting the broader cadence commitment.

Cluster: Kinéis IoT Constellation Deployment

Commitment: March 17, 2025: Complete deployment of Kinéis’ 25-satellite IoT constellation within a year via five dedicated launches with 100% mission success.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: All five dedicated missions completed in <1 year with declared 100% success, meeting and effectively exceeding schedule expectations.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-03-17 confirms the fifth mission and full-constellation deployment within a year.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-08 confirmed four of five launches completed and schedule continuity.

Commitment: March 11, 2025: Complete the final dedicated launch for Kinéis on March 18, 2025, concluding the five-launch campaign.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Final mission completed March 17/18, concluding the campaign as planned.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-03-17 confirms completion of the fifth launch.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-10 announced the final “High Five” mission timing.

Commitment: February 08, 2025: Maintain a consistent Electron launch schedule with the fifth Kinéis launch date to be announced in the coming weeks to finish the constellation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Superseded by completion on March 17; schedule was maintained.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-03-17 confirms constellation completion, superseding the pending status.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-08 noted the forthcoming fifth launch.

Commitment: November 25, 2024: Continue supporting Kinéis with the third of five dedicated launches completed, bringing 15 satellites on orbit toward full deployment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Milestone was achieved; subsequently, the full five-launch series completed in March 2025.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-25 confirms the third launch completed.
• A recent update from 2025-03-17 shows full deployment, superseding earlier in-progress status.

Commitment: November 12, 2024: Schedule the next Kinéis launch within a 14-day window starting November 23, 2024, as part of five dedicated missions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Achieved; next Kinéis launch executed Nov 25, 2024, consistent with the planned window.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-25 confirms the Kinéis launch within the stated window.

Cluster: Neutron Rocket: Development, Infrastructure, and Mission Commitments

Commitment: August 28, 2025: Open Launch Complex 3 at Wallops to provide assured access to space and launch site diversity for U.S. missions and deliver the Spaceport’s largest orbital capacity via Neutron, updating capability to 13,000 kg to orbit and supporting testing, launch, and return-to-Earth missions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: LC‑3 officially opened with detailed infrastructure completed; Neutron capability updated to ~13,000 kg to orbit.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-28 confirms LC‑3 opening and updated Neutron capabilities.

Commitment: July 10, 2025: Modify and fit out the ‘Return On Investment’ ocean landing platform to support Neutron reusability with delivery of the vessel in early 2026 and scaling launch capacity thereafter.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Modification contract awarded; platform delivery expected early 2026. No contradictory updates.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-10 confirms contract award and 2026 delivery timing.

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Launch Neutron for the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Rocket Cargo mission no earlier than 2026 following an inaugural flight expected in the second half of 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: LC‑3 is open; no public delay noted in the provided updates. Inaugural flight still referenced for H2 2025 in documents; schedule risk exists but not updated here.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-28 underscores LC‑3 readiness for Neutron operations.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 sets inaugural H2 2025 and Rocket Cargo NET 2026.

Commitment: March 27, 2025: Compete for missions under the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 program through June 2029 supported by a $5 million capabilities assessment task order.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Rocket Lab was on-ramped with task order; competition eligibility confirmed through 2029.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-27 confirms on-ramp with $5M task order.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Construct the ‘Return On Investment’ ocean landing platform through 2025 for Neutron sea landings with service entry in 2026 to enhance mission opportunities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Subsequent July 2025 contract award to Bollinger Shipyards shows execution toward 2026 service entry.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-07-10 confirms modification contract award with early 2026 delivery.

Commitment: January 09, 2025: Include Neutron launch services under NASA’s VADR contract with a debut launch expected from mid-2025 and positioning for NSSL Lane 1 on-ramp.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Inclusion under VADR confirmed; LC‑3 readiness supports debut launch timeline. NSSL on-ramp achieved March 2025.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-09 confirms VADR inclusion.
• A recent update from 2025-03-27 confirms NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 on-ramp.

Commitment: November 12, 2024: Sign a multi-launch agreement on Neutron with a commercial constellation operator with launches beginning mid-2026 following a 2025 debut.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: LC‑3 opening and platform development support the timeline of 2025 debut and mid‑2026 constellation launches; no contrary updates provided.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-12 confirms the multi-launch agreement and timing.
• A recent update from 2025-08-28 shows LC‑3 operational readiness.

Cluster: National Security and Hypersonic Test Programs (HASTE, MACH-TB, EWAAC/HTCDF)

Commitment: April 23, 2025: Launch a full-scale hypersonic test for DoD’s MACH-TB 2.0 program no earlier than Q1 2026 using HASTE under a $1.45 billion initiative.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: MACH‑TB 2.0 team participation confirmed; NET Q1 2026 test on HASTE aligns with program schedule.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-23 confirms the NET Q1 2026 MACH‑TB 2.0 test plan.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-07 confirms selection to the MACH‑TB 2.0 team.

Commitment: April 23, 2025: Expand HASTE hypersonic launch capabilities with upcoming 2025–2026 flight tests including a scram-jet vehicle for the Defense Innovation Unit and continuation of a multi-launch Leidos contract.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: HASTE’s expanding test profile across 2025–2026 is consistent with prior DoD work; no conflicting updates.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-23 outlines 2025–2026 test expansions.
• Earlier evidence from 2024-12-09 shows successful prior hypersonic test execution.

Commitment: April 14, 2025: Participate in the U.S. Air Force’s $46 billion EWAAC and the UK MOD’s ~£1 billion HTCDF frameworks to deliver innovative technologies and hypersonic testing capabilities through 2031.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Participation announced; timeline extends to 2031; no conflicting updates.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-14 confirms selection to both frameworks.

Commitment: January 07, 2025: Join the Kratos-led MACH-TB 2.0 team to deliver high-cadence hypersonic test launches with HASTE over a five-year contract.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Completed milestone; forms the basis for subsequent 2026 NET test.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-07 confirms MACH‑TB 2.0 team membership.

Cluster: Space Systems Products and Spacecraft Manufacturing at Scale

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Move into production of 18 spacecraft for SDA’s Tranche 2 Transport Layer with a $515 million contract, progressing spacecraft manufacturing at scale.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Production initiation confirmed; follows successful CDR and transition to full-scale manufacturing.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 confirms production start.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-01 confirms CDR completion and move to production.

Commitment: July 01, 2025: Deliver 18 SDA T2TL-Beta spacecraft following successful CDR and transition to full-scale production.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: CDR complete and production underway; deliveries pending.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-01 confirms CDR completion.
• A recent update from 2025-08-07 confirms production has begun.

Commitment: April 08, 2025: Introduce STARRAY, a family of customizable next-generation solar arrays powering ~100 W to >2,000 W with vertically integrated production.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Product line introduced as committed; no dependency on future milestones.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-08 confirms STARRAY launch.

Commitment: April 03, 2025: Expand the Frontier suite of software-defined radios to deliver high-reliability TT&C at constellation scale with broad ground station compatibility.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Product suite expansion announced; meets commitment scope.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-03 confirms Frontier expansion.

Commitment: March 12, 2025: Launch InterMission and MAX Constellation software suites to enhance autonomy, security, and scalability for spacecraft and constellations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Software suites launched per commitment.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-12 confirms product launches.

Commitment: March 12, 2025: Supply 200 solar panels for Airbus’s next-gen OneWeb satellites with first batch deliveries targeted for 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Contract award confirmed; deliveries targeted for 2026; no updates indicating delay.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-12 confirms contract and 2026 delivery target.

Commitment: March 03, 2025: Provide advanced flight software and power components supporting Firefly’s Blue Ghost 1 lunar mission over 1,470 operational hours.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Support delivered; Blue Ghost 1 mission success and operational support documented.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-03 and 2025-01-23 confirms Rocket Lab’s software/components support and mission success contributions.

Cluster: Strategic M&A and U.S. Industrial Base Investments

Commitment: August 22, 2025: Boost U.S. investments to expand semiconductor manufacturing and supply chain security, including plans to double compound semiconductor and solar cell capacity from 20,000 to ~35,000 wafers per month over five years and grow U.S. headcount above 2,000.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Investment plan disclosed, supported by CHIPS award and Geost integration; execution spans five years.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-22 details the expansion plan and workforce growth.
• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-25 confirms the $23.9M CHIPS award underpinning capacity expansion.

Commitment: August 12, 2025: Complete the $275 million acquisition of Geost with up to $50 million earnouts to scale EO/IR payload production and expand facilities in Arizona and Virginia.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Transaction closed; integration underway to scale EO/IR payloads.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-12 confirms acquisition completion.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-27 announced the signed agreement.

Commitment: May 27, 2025: Agree to acquire Geost for $275 million to enhance payload capabilities and expand workforce by 115 professionals upon closing (superseded by the August 12, 2025 completion).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Superseded by completed acquisition on 2025-08-12.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-12 confirms closing, superseding the agreement stage.

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Intend to expand into Europe via the acquisition of Mynaric to scale production of laser optical terminals, subject to approvals.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Intent reiterated (also on 2025-03-11); approvals and close not yet reported in provided updates.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 reaffirms intent to acquire Mynaric.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-11 outlines terms and strategic rationale.

Commitment: March 11, 2025: Intend to acquire a controlling equity position in Mynaric for approximately $75 million plus potential $75 million earn-out to vertically integrate optical communications and scale manufacturing post-close.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Intent stage; later 2025-05-08 update reiterates. No closing confirmation in provided materials.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-11 announces intent and structure.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 sustains the acquisition intent.

Commitment: November 25, 2024: Accept a $23.9 million CHIPS award to expand U.S. compound semiconductor manufacturing in Albuquerque to strengthen domestic supply chains.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Award accepted; later August 2025 update ties the award to broader U.S. investments and capacity growth.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-25 confirms CHIPS award.
• A recent update from 2025-08-22 references ongoing CHIPS-backed expansion.

Cluster: Tactically Responsive Space: VICTUS HAZE

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Complete the Systems Integration Review confirming readiness for final integration and testing for the VICTUS HAZE mission as part of delivering an end-to-end solution.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: SIR completed; program moving into final integration/testing.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 confirms successful SIR.

Commitment: February 24, 2025: Complete the Critical Design Review for a Space Force VICTUS HAZE spacecraft capable of launch on 24 hours’ notice with launch preparations initiating later in 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: CDR completed; subsequent SIR corroborates maturation.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-24 confirms CDR completion.
• A recent update from 2025-08-07 indicates readiness for final integration/testing.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Design, build, launch, and operate a spacecraft for VICTUS HAZE in 2025 under a $32 million contract to demonstrate RPO and SDA capabilities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: CDR and SIR milestones achieved; 2025 launch remains the target with late‑year preparations underway.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 confirms SIR completion.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-24 confirms CDR and late‑2025 launch preparations.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Configure a Pioneer-class spacecraft and Electron launch from LC-1 or LC-2 for VICTUS HAZE with a rapid Hot Standby phase to enable immediate commissioning.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Design reviews complete; configuration and ops approach validated through program reviews.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-24 (CDR) and 2025-08-07 (SIR) supports readiness.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Secure additional Space Force contracts including STP-30 launch within 24 months and Neutron upper stage development to support national security missions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Additional awards cited; broader national security posture strengthened via NSSL on-ramp and LC‑3 opening.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-22 lists additional SSC contracts.
• A recent update from 2025-03-27 confirms NSSL Lane 1 on-ramp.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Build and launch a responsive Space Force mission able to launch within 24 hours in 2025 as part of the company’s tactically responsive space capabilities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: CDR and SIR completed; rapid-launch readiness procedures planned for late 2025. No delay reported.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 confirms program integration readiness.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-24 outlines preparations for a 2025 launch.

Cluster: In-Space Manufacturing with Varda: Pioneer Spacecraft and Reentry Operations

Commitment: May 14, 2025: Manage and execute three Varda missions in just over a year with W-3 launched 15 days after W-2, demonstrating rapid, tailored spacecraft production and operations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: W‑2 reentry, W‑3 launch, and mission management documented; rapid cadence demonstrated.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-05-14 confirms three missions managed in ~1 year with W‑3 launched 15 days after W‑2.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-15 confirms W‑3 deployment.

Commitment: March 15, 2025: Deploy Varda’s third Pioneer spacecraft (W-3) and progress final assembly of the fourth spacecraft to advance commercial in-space manufacturing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: W‑3 deployed; W‑4 assembly in progress as of March; subsequent May update confirms continuing cadence.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-15 confirms W‑3 launch and W‑4 assembly.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Deliver re-entry for Varda’s W-2 mission via Rocket Lab’s Pioneer spacecraft and continue development of advanced spacecraft for orbital manufacturing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: W‑2 reentry completed; ongoing development continued.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 confirms successful W‑2 reentry.

Commitment: February 18, 2025: Execute a series of orbital maneuvers under an FAA reentry license to safely bring Varda’s Winnebago-1 capsule back to Earth with multi-burn targeting.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Maneuvers executed under FAA license; reentry operations concluded successfully shortly thereafter.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-18 confirms FAA-licensed reentry maneuvers.

Commitment: January 15, 2025: Provide ongoing support for Varda’s orbital processing missions through precise spacecraft operations enabling deorbit and recovery.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Ongoing support evidenced by W‑2 reentry and W‑3 deployment.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-15 notes ongoing operations support.

Commitment: December 17, 2024: Deliver four Pioneer spacecraft (two delivered, third completed, fourth scheduled for Q1 2025) while establishing high-cadence reentry operations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Subsequent updates confirm W‑3 launch (Q1 2025) and W‑2 reentry; newer data supersedes the planning status.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-03-15 confirms W‑3 launched and W‑4 assembly underway.
• Earlier evidence from 2024-12-17 set the four-spacecraft delivery plan.

Cluster: Launch Cadence, Responsiveness, and Reliability Targets

Commitment: October 14, 2025: Forecast more than 20 Electron launches in 2025, reaffirming and superseding earlier 2025 cadence targets announced throughout the year.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: 15th launch completed by Oct 14; multiple additional missions scheduled in “coming weeks,” consistent with >20 forecast. This supersedes earlier forecasts.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-14 confirms the 15th launch and >20 forecast.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-23 confirms the 12th launch and accelerated schedule.

Commitment: October 07, 2025: Increase production and launch cadence to meet international demand for 20+ Electron launches in 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple launches across Q2–Q4 demonstrate sustained cadence toward 20+.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-07 reiterates the 20+ cadence target alongside active campaigns (iQPS, Synspective).

Commitment: October 06, 2025: Target 20+ Electron launches during 2025 while initiating the 21-mission Synspective series.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Series initiation and 15th annual launch by mid-October align with the 20+ goal.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-14 confirms the 15th launch and Synspective series start.

Commitment: August 23, 2025: Continue executing an accelerated Electron launch schedule with the 12th mission of 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Milestone achieved; subsequent launches followed.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-23 confirms the 12th mission of 2025.

Commitment: June 28, 2025: Achieve the fastest turnaround between two Launch Complex 1 missions during a month with four launches and plan further launches later in the year.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Two launches within 48 hours achieved; four June launches documented.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-28 confirms the record turnaround and four-launch month.

Commitment: June 26, 2025: Maintain a high-cadence launch schedule with another mission scheduled two days later and potential for over 20 launches in 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Follow-on mission executed June 28; >20 estimate consistent with later forecasts.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 sets the 48-hour follow-on schedule.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-28 confirms execution.

Commitment: June 24, 2025: Maintain peak operational efficiency with back-to-back launches in June as part of a multi-launch HawkEye 360 contract.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Back-to-back launches executed as scheduled.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-24 announced back-to-back schedule; 2025-06-26/06-28 executed them.

Commitment: June 16, 2025: Add two more missions to the 2025 manifest toward achieving 20+ launches with 100% mission success.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Additional missions were flown in June and beyond while maintaining a high success rate through October.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-16 added missions toward the 20+ target.
• A recent update from 2025-10-06/10-14 references ongoing 100% 2025 success to that point.

Commitment: March 26, 2025: Increase Electron launch cadence to hit 20+ launches in 2025, including rapid four-month contract-to-launch turnarounds.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Rapid contract-to-launch (e.g., OroraTech in 4 months) and mid-year record operations support the 20+ trajectory.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-26 cites >20 target and rapid turnarounds.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-26/03-27 (OroraTech) demonstrates a 4‑month contract-to-launch.

Commitment: November 25, 2024: Demonstrate unprecedented responsiveness by executing two missions in less than 24 hours, setting a company turnaround record.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Achieved November 2024; record stands and was complemented by June 2025 back-to-back missions.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-25 confirms the sub‑24‑hour dual-launch feat.

Commitment: November 05, 2024: Reduce contract-to-launch timelines to under ten weeks while standardizing rapid Electron production for year-round availability.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Achieved; Nov 5 mission noted as <10 weeks contract-to-launch. Later 2025 missions show continued responsiveness.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-05 documents the sub‑10‑week turnaround.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-26 highlights ongoing rapid execution.

Cluster: Electron Reusability Initiative

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Advance Electron reusability by qualifying a recovered first-stage tank for potential reflight to increase cadence through reuse following rigorous acceptance testing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Recovered stage reintroduced to production flow and undergoing qualification. No reflight executed yet in provided updates.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-22 confirms qualification testing and reintegration of a recovered tank into production.

Cluster: Financial Targets and Guidance

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Target record Q3 2025 revenue of $145–$155 million and GAAP gross margins of 35%–37% and Non-GAAP 39%–41%.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Guidance issued; Q2 outperformance suggests momentum into Q3. Final Q3 actuals not included in provided updates.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 provides Q3 guidance and notes record operational execution.

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Guide Q2 2025 revenue to $130–$140 million and expand GAAP gross margins to 30%–32%.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Q2 revenue reported at ~$144.5 million with significant YoY growth, exceeding the top end of guidance; margins expanded.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 reports record quarterly revenue and margin expansion.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-15 cites Q2 revenue of $144.5 million, above guidance.

Commitment: November 12, 2024: Aim for record Q4 2024 revenue of $125–$135 million based on strong demand and backlog.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Achieved; Q4 2024 revenue was $132.4 million within guided range.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27/2025-02-27 confirms Q4 2024 revenue of ~$132.4 million, meeting the target.

Cluster: OroraTech Wildfire Monitoring Constellation

Commitment: March 27, 2025: Execute a rapid-turnaround mission launching eight satellites for OroraTech within four months of contract signing to meet seasonal wildfire monitoring needs.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Mission executed within four months, deploying eight satellites as committed.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-03-26/03-27 confirms the launch and rapid timeline from contract to orbit.

Commitment: March 26, 2025: Increase cadence toward 20+ 2025 launches while deploying eight OroraTech satellites for continuous real-time wildfire monitoring.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: OroraTech deployment complete; cadence objectives reinforced.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-26 confirms successful deployment and cadence targets.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Launch eight satellites for OroraTech to a 550 km orbit within four months of contract signing to provide urgent access to space for wildfire detection.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Achieved; later March updates show mission success within the stated timeframe.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-22 announced the rapid-turn launch plan, superseded by March execution.