RKLB

Cluster: Electron Launch Cadence & Reusability

Commitment: August 23, 2025: Continue executing an accelerated schedule of Electron launches to meet multi-launch constellation demand (12th mission of 2025; 70th overall).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 98%

Analysis: The 70th Electron mission flew on Aug 23, marking the 12th launch of 2025 and sustaining sub‑three‑week turnarounds. Evidence shows multiple multi‑launch constellation campaigns in 2025. Recent performance validates accelerated cadence.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-23 confirms the 70th Electron mission and 12th of 2025, less than three weeks after the prior launch, underscoring sustained cadence.

Commitment: August 18, 2025: Execute the “Live, Laugh, Launch” Electron mission to deploy five satellites to a 655 km orbit, underscoring sustained high cadence less than three weeks after the prior mission.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The launch scheduled for Aug 23–24 was executed Aug 23 with five satellites deployed. Confirms rapid cadence claim.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-23 confirms ‘Live, Laugh, Launch’ flew successfully from LC-1, within three weeks of the prior mission.
• An earlier update from 2025-08-18 announced the window and payload; the Aug 23 execution supersedes the scheduling notice.

Commitment: June 28, 2025: Achieve the fastest launch turnaround between two missions from LC-1 with four launches in June, reinforcing rapid-response capability.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Rocket Lab achieved two launches from the same site in <48 hours and completed four June launches, meeting the turnaround and monthly cadence goals.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-06-28 confirms the <48-hour LC-1 turnaround and four June launches.
• An earlier update from 2025-06-26 highlighted the set-up for the <48-hour pair; the June 28 result confirms it.

Commitment: June 26, 2025: Maintain a high-cadence launch schedule with over 20 launches possible in 2025 to meet customer demand.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: By Aug 23, Electron had reached 12 launches YTD with stacked manifest and multiple multi‑launch campaigns, in line with a >20 target for the year.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-23 notes 12 launches YTD with continued accelerated schedule.
• An earlier update from 2025-06-26 cited “over 20 launches possible”; later execution supports trajectory.

Commitment: June 24, 2025: Preserve peak operational efficiency with back‑to‑back launches supporting multi‑launch contracts, demonstrating flexible scheduling.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Back‑to‑back planning led to a <48‑hour turnaround on Jun 26–28 and four launches in June, directly evidencing flexible scheduling and efficiency.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-06-28 confirms the <48-hour turnaround at LC‑1 and four launches in June, validating the June 24 plan.

Commitment: March 26, 2025: Increase the Electron launch cadence to 20+ missions in 2025 to scale dedicated access to orbit.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: With 12 missions completed by Aug 23 and multiple campaigns ongoing, the >20 target remains attainable.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-23 confirms 12 missions YTD with next mission details imminent.
• An earlier update from 2025-03-26 set the >20 goal; subsequent cadence supports it.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Advance Electron reusability by qualifying a recovered first stage tank for potential reflight to boost cadence and throughput.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: A previously flown first stage tank was returned into the production line for reflight qualification, indicating tangible progress toward Electron reuse.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-01-22 confirms reintroduction of a recovered first stage tank into standard production flow for reflight consideration.

Commitment: November 25, 2024: Demonstrate unprecedented responsiveness with two Electron missions in less than 24 hours, validating on‑demand launch capability.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Rocket Lab executed two missions less than 22 hours apart from different hemispheres, surpassing typical turnaround benchmarks for small launch.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-25 confirms two missions within 21h 55m, validating on‑demand capability; later 2025 cadence continues to reinforce responsiveness.

Commitment: November 5, 2024: Reduce contract‑to‑launch timelines to under 10 weeks through standardized rapid production and streamlined integration.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: A mission signed less than ten weeks prior was successfully launched, meeting the stated turnaround target.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-05 confirms a <10‑week contract‑to‑launch execution; subsequent 2025 rapid‑turn launches (e.g., OroraTech in four months) further support sustained capability.

Cluster: Neutron Rocket: Infrastructure, Debut, and Reuse Ecosystem

Commitment: August 18, 2025: Officially open Launch Complex 3 (LC‑3) at Wallops Island for Neutron, superseding earlier “on track to open in Q3 2025” updates.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 65%

Analysis: Evidence confirms an Aug 28 official opening event and Aug 18/23 communications referencing preparation for LC‑3 opening, but no explicit post‑Aug 18 confirmation of “officially open” found in provided summaries. Current data indicates imminent opening.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 schedules LC‑3’s official opening event for Aug 28, implying completion and readiness.
• A recent update from 2025-08-18 references preparing for LC‑3 opening; absent a post‑Aug 18 confirmation, the Aug 28 event likely marks official opening and would supersede “on track” statements once executed.

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Host an LC‑3 opening event for retail shareholders on August 28, 2025 to mark facility completion and readiness.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Event announced and scheduled; occurs after latest evidence date. No contrary signals.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 invites shareholders to the Aug 28 LC‑3 opening event.

Commitment: July 10, 2025: Modify and fit out the ‘Return On Investment’ ocean landing platform for Neutron reuse with vessel delivery expected early 2026, enabling a plan to double annual launch capacity.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Contract awarded to Bollinger Shipyards; construction and modification underway with delivery in early 2026, aligned with reuse infrastructure roadmap.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-07-10 confirms the modification contract and early‑2026 delivery timeline.

Commitment: July 10, 2025: Expand recovery infrastructure in Louisiana to support timely delivery and return of Neutron rockets for rapid reuse.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The landing platform is being built and fitted out in Louisiana, evidencing local recovery infrastructure expansion.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-07-10 details platform construction at Bollinger Shipyards in Louisiana.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Construct the ‘Return On Investment’ ocean landing platform throughout 2025 for Neutron sea landings with service entry in 2026 (baseline later refined by the July 10, 2025 update).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The July 10 update refines the baseline with a named shipyard and early‑2026 delivery, reinforcing the 2026 service entry plan.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 set the 2025 construction/2026 entry baseline.
• A later update from 2025-07-10 supersedes with specific modification and delivery details.

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Fly a Rocket Cargo mission for the U.S. Air Force no earlier than 2026, with Neutron’s inaugural launch expected in H2 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: AFRL REGAL Rocket Cargo experiment announced; LC‑3 nearing opening supports H2’25 inaugural launch plan. No slippage reported in summaries.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 indicates LC‑3 completion timing (opening event Aug 28).
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 announces the Rocket Cargo mission NOEARLIERTHAN 2026 and H2 2025 debut target.

Commitment: March 27, 2025: Compete in the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 program with a first Neutron launch targeted for H2 2025 and a $5 million capabilities assessment task order.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: On‑ramp selection confirmed with a $5M task order; later results maintain H2’25 target.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-27 confirms NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 selection and $5M task order.
• A later update from 2025-05-08 reiterates on‑ramp status.

Commitment: January 09, 2025: Provide Neutron launch services under NASA’s VADR contract with a planned debut from mid‑2025 and on‑ramp to OSP‑4.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: NASA VADR inclusion confirmed; debut remains planned for H2’25 in subsequent communications.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-09 confirms VADR on‑ramp for Neutron; later program updates remain consistent.

Commitment: November 12, 2024: Fulfill a multi‑launch Neutron agreement with a confidential constellation operator beginning mid‑2026 to deploy an entire constellation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multi‑launch Neutron contract disclosed; subsequent Neutron milestones align with mid‑2026 service readiness.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-12 confirms multi‑launch agreement starting mid‑2026.

Commitment: November 12, 2024: Advance Neutron’s Archimedes engine via an up‑to‑$8 million USAF digital engineering contract to reduce cost, schedule, and risk.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: AFRL digital engineering contract awarded; aligns with engine maturation efforts.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-11-12 confirms the up‑to‑$8M contract to support Archimedes and digital engineering.

Cluster: Defense Spacecraft Programs & Responsive Missions (SDA, VICTUS HAZE)

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Complete the Systems Integration Review for VICTUS HAZE, confirming readiness for final integration and testing as a tactically responsive mission.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 97%

Analysis: SIR completion reported, moving the program into final integration/testing readiness.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 confirms SIR completion for VICTUS HAZE.

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Move into production of 18 spacecraft for SDA’s Tranche 2 Transport Layer ($515 million), progressing beyond the July 1, 2025 CDR phase.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Production start is explicitly reported, superseding the earlier CDR milestone.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 states production has begun on the $515M, 18‑spacecraft SDA contract.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-01 confirmed CDR; the Aug 7 update supersedes design phase status.

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Use VICTUS HAZE as a proving ground to demonstrate rapid build, deployment, and RPO operations on tactically relevant timelines.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: With CDR and SIR complete, the mission remains positioned to demonstrate rapid timelines and RPO ops.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 underscores VICTUS HAZE as the proving ground for responsive ops with SIR complete.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-24 confirmed CDR; later SIR (Aug 7) indicates sustained progress.

Commitment: July 01, 2025: Complete CDR for SDA T2TL‑Beta and transition to full‑scale production (superseded operationally by the August 07, 2025 production start).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: CDR completion confirmed; superseded by Aug 7 production start.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-01 confirms CDR completion.
• A later update from 2025-08-07 confirms production start, superseding design milestone.

Commitment: February 24, 2025: Complete CDR for VICTUS HAZE with 24‑hour launch readiness (superseded by the August 07, 2025 SIR milestone).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: CDR completed; Aug 7 SIR advances readiness further and supersedes this earlier phase.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-24 confirms VICTUS HAZE CDR with 24‑hour readiness concept.
• A later update from 2025-08-07 indicates SIR completion, superseding CDR status.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Design, build, launch, and operate the VICTUS HAZE spacecraft under a $32 million contract with a hot standby phase for immediate readiness.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Contract scope reaffirmed; program progressed through CDR (Feb) and SIR (Aug), supporting end‑to‑end delivery.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-22 confirms contract and scope.
• Subsequent updates from 2025-02-24 (CDR) and 2025-08-07 (SIR) validate steady progress.

Cluster: Hypersonic Test and Suborbital Services (HASTE)

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Execute a MACH‑TB 2.0 launch no earlier than Q1 2026 as the first full‑scale flight test under the $1.45 billion program.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Award and schedule reaffirmed; execution pending 2026. No slippage indicated.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-23 sets NOEARLIERTHAN Q1’26 timing.
• A later update from 2025-05-08 reiterates MACH‑TB 2.0 launch plan.

Commitment: April 23, 2025: Launch a full‑scale hypersonic test for DoD under MACH‑TB 2.0 no earlier than Q1 2026, expanding the test manifest.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Contracted schedule maintained; aligns with broader MACH‑TB 2.0 pipeline.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-23 announces the new launch contract and Q1’26 earliest date.

Commitment: April 14, 2025: Participate in USAF’s $46 billion EWAAC through 2031 and the UK MOD’s ~£1 billion HTCDF, positioning HASTE for rapid hypersonic procurements.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Participation in both frameworks confirmed, positioning HASTE for expanded awards.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-14 confirms selection into USAF EWAAC and UK HTCDF frameworks.

Commitment: April 14, 2025: Provide more affordable and frequent hypersonic testing at commercial prices to accelerate technology maturation.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Commercial test platform positioned; past successful HASTE missions and upcoming MACH‑TB 2.0 flight support affordability/frequency claims.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-12-09 confirms successful hypersonic suborbital launch and accelerated test timelines.
• Later framework awards (2025-04-14) support future cadence and affordability objectives.

Commitment: April 14, 2025: Utilize HASTE (700 kg payload, >7.5 km/s) as the primary suborbital platform for contracted hypersonic tests.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 88%

Analysis: HASTE is the designated vehicle for MACH‑TB 2.0 and other frameworks.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-07 outlines HASTE capabilities and MACH‑TB 2.0 team role.
• A later update from 2025-04-23 confirms HASTE use for the 2026 test.

Commitment: January 07, 2025: Serve on the Kratos‑led MACH‑TB 2.0 team for a five‑year, $1.45 billion hypersonic test campaign, delivering high‑cadence flights.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Team selection confirmed; subsequent contract awards bolster execution pipeline.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-07 confirms MACH‑TB 2.0 team role and program value.

Commitment: December 09, 2024: Demonstrate mission success for a hypersonic suborbital launch and commit to increasing flight test frequency.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Successful mission achieved; subsequent 2025 awards and scheduled tests indicate increasing cadence.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-12-09 confirms a successful hypersonic suborbital mission; later awards reinforce future frequency.

Cluster: Space Systems Expansion & U.S. Industrial Base (Geost, Semiconductors, Payloads)

Commitment: August 22, 2025: Boost U.S. investments to expand semiconductor manufacturing and secure domestic supply chains for space‑grade solar cells and EO sensors supporting national security missions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: CHIPS Act award ($23.9M) and stated multi‑year capex plans substantiate expansion.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-22 confirms CHIPS award and investment plans to expand U.S. semiconductor capacity.

Commitment: August 22, 2025: Double compound semiconductor and space‑grade solar cell output from 20,000 to nearly 35,000 wafers per month over the next five years.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Target announced with funding support; multi‑year execution pending.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-22 states the five‑year doubling plan; execution will occur over time.

Commitment: August 22, 2025: Provide U.S. manufacturers broad access to domestically produced advanced semiconductor and electro‑optical technologies to strengthen supply chain security.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Investment and capacity expansion plans, plus Geost acquisition, enable broader U.S. access.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-22 outlines expanded access objectives tied to increased domestic production.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-12 (Geost acquisition) strengthens EO/IR technology availability.

Commitment: August 22, 2025: Expand the ability to rapidly deliver integrated spacecraft systems purpose‑built for U.S. national security missions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Integration of Geost payloads and SDA/VICTUS programs in production reinforce rapid, integrated delivery capability.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-22 cites expanded rapid delivery; concurrent 2025 SDA production and VICTUS HAZE SIR (2025-08-07) corroborate capability.

Commitment: August 22, 2025: Drive U.S. headcount growth to more than 2,000 employees as part of multi‑state expansion.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Intention and investments are stated; the summaries don’t confirm the headcount has surpassed 2,000 yet.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-22 states the plan to grow U.S. headcount to >2,000; no confirming headcount data provided.

Commitment: August 12, 2025: Complete the $275 million acquisition of Geost (with up to $50 million in potential earnouts), superseding the May 27, 2025 agreement and the August 7, 2025 “imminent” closing update.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 97%

Analysis: Acquisition closed (cash and stock), superseding announcement and “imminent” status.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-12 confirms deal closing and terms.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-27 announced the agreement; Aug 12 close supersedes prior status.

Commitment: August 12, 2025: Scale high‑volume production of Geost EO/IR payloads to deliver mission‑critical systems at speed.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Post‑acquisition statements indicate intent to scale; production ramp details will unfold over time.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-12 states plans to scale EO/IR production.

Commitment: August 12, 2025: Expand operational footprint with Geost facilities in Arizona and Virginia to strengthen integrated space solutions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Geost will continue operations in AZ and VA under Rocket Lab, expanding footprint.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-12 confirms facilities in Arizona and Virginia under Rocket Lab.

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Establish a new Payloads business unit aligned to future defense satellite opportunities.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Business unit creation reported with alignment to defense opportunities.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 confirms creation of a Payloads business unit.

Commitment: May 27, 2025: Announce the agreement to acquire Geost to enhance optical payload capabilities (updated and superseded by the August 12, 2025 close).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 97%

Analysis: Agreement announced May 27; Aug 12 closing supersedes.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-27 announced the deal.
• A later update from 2025-08-12 confirms closing, superseding the agreement phase.

Cluster: Product Portfolio & Vertical Integration (Satellites, Power, Radios, Software)

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Launch Flatellite, a mass‑manufacturable satellite platform designed for large constellations with integrated secure flight and ground software.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Flatellite unveiled with mass‑manufacture and constellation focus; aligns with end‑to‑end strategy.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 details Flatellite introduction and strategy.

Commitment: April 08, 2025: Introduce STARRAY customizable solar arrays covering ~100 W to >2,000 W to shorten lead times and lower costs.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Product line announced with vertical integration and customization across wide power range.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-08 confirms STARRAY launch and objectives.

Commitment: April 03, 2025: Expand the Frontier suite of software‑defined radios for reliable TT&C with compatibility across major global ground networks.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Expanded Frontier radios introduced, enhancing TT&C portfolio.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-03 details the expanded Frontier suite and compatibility.

Commitment: March 12, 2025: Supply 200 solar panels for Airbus’ next‑gen OneWeb satellites with first‑batch deliveries targeted for 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Contract announced with 2026 delivery start; supports large‑scale power products pipeline.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-12 confirms award and 2026 delivery target.

Commitment: March 12, 2025: Release InterMission and MAX Constellation software to enhance autonomy, security, and scalability for mission ops.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: New software suites launched; complements Flatellite and operations stack.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-12 confirms release of InterMission and MAX Constellation.

Commitment: March 03, 2025: Provide software and components enabling Firefly’s Blue Ghost 1 lunar landing, demonstrating end‑to‑end systems support.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Mission achieved lunar landing using Rocket Lab software/components, showcasing depth of systems support beyond LEO.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-03 confirms Blue Ghost 1 success with Rocket Lab software and components.

Commitment: February 28, 2025: Operate and return Varda’s W‑2 in‑space manufacturing capsule using Rocket Lab’s Pioneer spacecraft bus, proving reentry capability.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Successful reentry and recovery completed; robust reentry operations demonstrated.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-28 confirms W‑2 reentry and recovery operations.

Commitment: March 15, 2025: Deploy the third Pioneer spacecraft (W‑3) for Varda to advance routine in‑space manufacturing and return.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: W‑3 launched and operating, continuing cadence for in‑space manufacturing missions.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-15 confirms W‑3 deployment and ongoing integration of the fourth spacecraft.

Cluster: Constellation Customer Launch Partnerships

Commitment: August 05, 2025: Support iQPS with four more dedicated missions through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 to expand its SAR constellation (updates earlier scheduling disclosures).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: After the Aug 5 launch (69th mission), four more iQPS missions are planned through 2026, consistent with earlier multi‑launch agreement.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-05 confirms successful iQPS mission and four additional dedicated iQPS missions scheduled.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Launch iQPS’s ‘The Harvest Goddess Thrives’ and conduct three more dedicated missions into 2026 (partially superseded and updated by the August 05, 2025 schedule).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: The Aug 5 mission executed as announced; updated count of upcoming iQPS missions provided Aug 5 supersedes July 31 phrasing.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-07-31 scheduled the Aug 5 mission.
• A later update from 2025-08-05 confirms launch and updates the remaining mission count.

Commitment: June 25, 2025: Launch a dedicated Electron mission for ESA’s LEO‑PNT program no earlier than December 2025 to deploy the first pair of navigation satellites.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 88%

Analysis: Contract and NET Dec 2025 schedule confirmed; execution pending.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-06-25 confirms the ESA LEO‑PNT dedicated mission NET Dec 2025.

Commitment: June 02, 2025: Increase launch cadence for BlackSky with additional Gen‑3 launches “in the months to come” to expand on‑orbit capacity.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: BlackSky Gen‑3 launched Feb 18 and Jun 2, with more planned; cadence increasing as stated.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-18 confirms a BlackSky Gen‑3 launch.
• A later update from 2025-06-02 confirms another Gen‑3 launch and notes more to come.

Commitment: March 27, 2025: Execute a rapid‑turnaround dedicated mission for OroraTech within four months of contract signing to deploy eight wildfire‑monitoring satellites.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Mission executed within four months of contract, meeting rapid‑turn objective.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-26 confirms successful launch of eight satellites within four months of contract signing.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Conduct eight dedicated Electron launches for iQPS across 2025–2026 (six planned in 2025 and two in 2026), establishing one of the largest Electron agreements to date.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Multiple 2025 iQPS launches executed (Mar 14, May 17, Jun 11, Aug 5) with additional missions scheduled, tracking to the 8‑launch plan.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 announces the 8‑launch agreement.
• Subsequent updates (2025-03-14, 2025-05-17, 2025-06-11, 2025-08-05) confirm continuing execution and remaining missions.

Commitment: February 08, 2025: Complete deployment of Kinéis’ 25‑satellite IoT constellation within a year via five dedicated Electron missions, enabling global data coverage.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Five dedicated missions completed with full 25‑sat constellation deployed in <1 year by Mar 17, 2025.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-03-17 confirms completion of all five missions and full constellation in under a year.

Cluster: Financial and Corporate Targets & Capital

Commitment: August 07, 2025: Target record Q3 2025 revenue of $145–$155 million alongside GAAP gross margins of 35%–37% (Non‑GAAP 39%–41%).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Guidance issued; Q2 strength and ongoing cadence support outlook. Actuals pending.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 provides Q3 revenue and margin guidance, citing strong operational momentum.

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Guide Q2 2025 revenue to $130–$140 million, reflecting continued operational execution.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 97%

Analysis: Reported Q2 revenue of ~$144–$144.5M exceeded guidance range.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 reports record quarterly revenue of $144M.
• A recent update from 2025-08-15 MD&A reports Q2 revenue of $144.5M, exceeding guidance.

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Implement a holding company structure (Rocket Lab Corporation) effective June 1, 2025 to better align legal entities and manage risk.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Intent and effective date announced; provided summaries don’t explicitly confirm post‑June implementation status.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 announces the holding company structure effective June 1, 2025; no later explicit confirmation found in summaries.

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Project Q2 2025 GAAP gross margins of 30%–32% as scaling improves overhead absorption.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Summaries note significant YoY gross margin expansion in Q2 but don’t state the exact GAAP percentage; likely met or exceeded, but unconfirmed numerically.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-08-07 cites Q2 gross margin expansion by 650 bps YoY; specific GAAP percentage not provided in summaries.

Commitment: March 11, 2025: Establish an “at the market” equity program of up to $500 million to fund growth initiatives and potential acquisitions.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: ATM program established with details on agents and intended uses; aligns with acquisition strategy.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-03-11 confirms the $500M ATM program and purpose.