RKLB

Cluster: 2025 Launch Cadence and Annual Target

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Close out the year with more than 20 launches, superseding earlier 2025 projections of 20+ launches.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: As of November 10, Rocket Lab reported 16 launches year-to-date and stated a new annual launch record was “days away,” which would surpass the 16-launch record but not yet confirm >20. No summary explicitly confirms exceeding 20 by year-end. Most recent evidence supersedes earlier projections but does not verify completion.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 noted a record year was “just days away,” with 16 launches reached by 2025-11-05, but no confirmation of >20 yet (supersedes earlier projections).

Commitment: November 5, 2025: Schedule and execute additional Electron missions through the remainder of 2025 to pursue another record-breaking launch year.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: With 16 launches completed by Nov 5 and additional missions scheduled, the company remained on pace for a record year. Execution and scheduling evidence is current and consistent.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-05 confirmed 16 launches YTD with more missions scheduled through 2025.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reiterated a new annual launch record was imminent.

Commitment: August 23, 2025: Continue executing an accelerated schedule of Electron launches in 2025 to provide responsive access to space.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The 12th mission of 2025 was completed on Aug 23, less than three weeks after the prior launch, demonstrating sustained acceleration.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-23 reported the 12th mission of 2025 and rapid cadence milestones.

Commitment: June 28, 2025: Achieve the fastest launch turnaround between two LC‑1 missions and continue launches later in 2025 to demonstrate rapid deployment capability.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Rocket Lab executed two launches from LC-1 within 48 hours and completed four launches in June, surpassing responsiveness expectations.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-28 confirmed the <48-hour LC‑1 turnaround and four June launches.

Commitment: June 26, 2025: Maintain peak operational efficiency with back-to-back Electron missions, demonstrating schedule flexibility for multi-launch contracts.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Back-to-back launches within 48 hours and continued schedule execution demonstrate exceptional operational tempo.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 confirmed a rapid next launch within <48 hours, followed by successful execution on 2025-06-28.

Commitment: March 26, 2025: Increase launch cadence to achieve 20+ Electron launches in 2025.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: Cadence increased significantly (16 launches by Nov 5), but available evidence does not confirm surpassing 20 launches.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-05 confirmed 16 launches YTD.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 indicated a new record was imminent but did not confirm >20; newer guidance supersedes earlier projections.

Cluster: Synspective Constellation Deployments (Electron)

Commitment: October 14, 2025: Perform a series of 21 dedicated Electron launches for Synspective and launch a total of 27 missions, updating and extending prior agreements.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The first of the 21 new missions was executed on Oct 14. The Oct 14 expansion to 27 total missions supersedes earlier counts (16, then 21), reflecting program growth and validated execution.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-14 confirmed the first of 21 new missions and 27 total missions, superseding earlier totals.

Commitment: October 6, 2025: Execute the first of 21 new Synspective missions during the “Owl New World” launch and complete the 21‑mission series before the end of the decade.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The Oct 14 mission executed as planned. The long-horizon completion remains scheduled through decade’s end; no slippage indicated.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-06 set the window; a recent update from 2025-10-14 confirmed successful execution.

Commitment: September 29, 2025: Deliver a second multi-launch contract of 10 dedicated Electron launches for Synspective, bringing the total to 21 dedicated launches (now superseded by the October 14, 2025 expansion to 27 total missions).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The Sept 29 expansion to 21 was subsequently superseded by Oct 14’s further expansion to 27 total missions. Execution has progressed with the first mission flown under the new series.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-09-29 announced expansion to 21 dedicated launches.* A recent update from 2025-10-14 superseded this to 27 total missions.

Commitment: December 5, 2024: Continue as Synspective’s sole launch provider with a plan for 16 missions (now superseded by expanded 21 dedicated and 27 total missions).

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The original 16-mission plan has been expanded significantly to 27 total missions, demonstrating increased scope and customer reliance.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-05 outlined 16 missions.* A recent update from 2025-10-14 superseded the plan to 27 missions total.

Cluster: iQPS SAR Constellation Launches (Electron)

Commitment: November 5, 2025: Launch six additional dedicated Electron missions for iQPS under a newly signed multi-launch agreement to build out its SAR constellation, updating earlier totals.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The sixth dedicated iQPS mission was successfully launched on Nov 5, and a new agreement for six more missions was signed, expanding beyond earlier plans.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-05 confirmed the sixth dedicated launch and a new agreement for six additional missions.

Commitment: October 7, 2025: Conduct three additional dedicated iQPS missions no earlier than 2026, bringing the then-upcoming count to seven and using Rocket Lab’s Motorized Lightband for deployment.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: This expansion was later superseded by the Nov 5 agreement adding six more missions. The Motorized Lightband deployment continues to be standard.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-07 announced three additional missions.* A recent update from 2025-11-05 superseded totals by adding six more missions.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Execute “The Harvest Goddess Thrives” and three more dedicated iQPS missions through late 2025 and into 2026, maintaining 100% mission success.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: “The Harvest Goddess Thrives” launched on Aug 5; another iQPS launch completed on Nov 5. Remaining missions extend into 2026 as planned.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-05 confirmed the iQPS launch.* A recent update from 2025-11-05 confirmed another iQPS mission completed.

Commitment: June 3, 2025: Target three Electron launches within 24 days as part of an accelerated cadence and execute a total of eight iQPS missions across 2025–2026 (now partially superseded by later agreements adding more missions).

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The “three in 24 days” cadence was achieved in June. The eight-mission plan has since been expanded, superseding earlier totals.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-03 set the cadence goal; 2025-06-11 noted two iQPS launches 25 days apart and the third in the 24-day window followed (superseded totals by later agreements).* A recent update from 2025-11-05 added six more missions, expanding beyond eight.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Carry out eight dedicated Electron launches for iQPS—six in 2025 and two in 2026—to build its 36‑satellite SAR constellation (superseded in part by later expansions).

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Multiple 2025 missions have been executed; later agreements expanded beyond the original eight, superseding this plan.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 set the eight-mission plan.* A recent update from 2025-11-05 superseded with six additional missions.

Commitment: February 4, 2025: Execute four dedicated iQPS missions (three in 2025 and one in 2026) under an initial multi-launch agreement (superseded by later eight‑ and then 6+ mission expansions).

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The program expanded from four to eight and then added six more, with multiple successful launches in 2025, materially exceeding initial scope.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-04 outlined four missions.* Later updates from 2025-02-27 and 2025-11-05 expanded the plan significantly (superseded).

Cluster: Government and Agency Missions on Electron (NASA, ESA, JAXA, Eta Space)

Commitment: October 22, 2025: Move the LOXSAT Photon spacecraft into environmental testing and prepare for an early 2026 Electron launch following SIR clearance.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: SIR completed and environmental testing underway, aligning with an early 2026 launch target.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-22 confirmed SIR completion and environmental testing start.

Commitment: October 22, 2025: Supply both the Photon spacecraft and an Electron launch vehicle for the LOXSAT mission selected by Eta Space, continuing toward the 2026 launch.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: End-to-end mission scope reaffirmed; spacecraft build complete with environmental testing in progress.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-22 confirmed Photon completion and Rocket Lab’s dual role (spacecraft + launch).

Commitment: October 22, 2025: Execute the LOXSAT on‑orbit cryogenic fluid management demo to inform design of the planned Cryo‑Dock propellant depot targeted for 2030.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Pre-launch milestones are on schedule for early 2026; on-orbit execution remains future-dated but supported by current progress.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-22 detailed readiness steps toward the 2026 demo.

Commitment: October 10, 2025: Perform two dedicated Electron launches for JAXA’s Innovative Satellite Technology Demonstration Program, with the first in December 2025 and the second in 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Contracts signed and schedules set; no delays reported.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-10-10 confirmed schedules: Dec 2025 and 2026.

Commitment: June 25, 2025: Launch ESA’s first pair of LEO‑PNT navigation satellites on a dedicated Electron mission no earlier than December 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Schedule established; no contradictory updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-25 confirmed the contract and NET Dec 2025 timing.

Commitment: May 14, 2025: Launch NASA’s Aspera astrophysics mission no earlier than Q1 2026 to study galaxy formation via ultraviolet observations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: NET Q1 2026 stands; no delays indicated in subsequent updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-14 set Aspera’s NET Q1 2026 schedule.

Cluster: National Security and Defense Programs

Commitment: August 22, 2025: Boost U.S. investments to expand semiconductor manufacturing and electro‑optical sensor supply for national security missions, including doubling monthly wafer capacity to ~35,000 over five years.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: CHIPS award secured; Geost acquisition completed; plans and capital investments underway toward capacity doubling.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-22 detailed the $23.9m CHIPS award and capacity-doubling plan.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 noted Geost acquisition closure and strong liquidity to fund investments.

Commitment: August 7, 2025: Complete Systems Integration Review for the U.S. Space Force’s VICTUS HAZE mission and proceed to final integration and testing toward a tactically responsive launch.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: SIR was completed on time with clear progression to final integration/testing, demonstrating readiness on a responsive timeline.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-07 confirmed SIR completion and next steps.

Commitment: July 1, 2025: Deliver 18 spacecraft for the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 2 Transport Layer‑Beta program following successful CDR and entry into full-scale production.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: CDR completed and program moved to full-scale production; deliveries pending, with no slippage reported.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-01 confirmed CDR completion and transition to production.

Commitment: April 23, 2025: Launch the MACH‑TB 2.0 program’s first full-scale hypersonic test no earlier than Q1 2026 using HASTE under a $1.45 billion framework.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Contract secured; schedule NET Q1 2026 stands without contradictory updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-23 announced the award and NET Q1 2026 timing.

Commitment: April 14, 2025: Participate in the U.S. Air Force’s $46 billion EWAAC and the UK MOD’s ~£1 billion HTCDF frameworks to deliver hypersonic technologies and engineering services.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Participation confirmed with continued HASTE progress and related awards, reinforcing capability positioning.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-14 confirmed selection to both frameworks.

Commitment: March 27, 2025: Compete for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 missions through June 2029 with a $5 million capabilities assessment task order underway.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Rocket Lab was selected for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1, receiving a task order and positioning Neutron for national security missions.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-27 confirmed selection and $5m task order.

Commitment: January 22, 2025: Design, build, launch, and operate a spacecraft for the Space Force’s $32 million VICTUS HAZE mission to demonstrate rapid RPO and SDA capabilities in 2025.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 70%

Analysis: SIR completed Aug 7 and integration underway; as of Nov 10, no confirmation of a 2025 launch, making timeline tight. No explicit delay reported; latest evidence supersedes earlier planning expectations without confirming launch.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-07 confirmed SIR completion and progression to final integration.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-22 set the 2025 launch goal; no update confirming launch by 2025-11-10.

Commitment: May 8, 2025: Support DoD hypersonic flight testing and Rocket Cargo via new awards, including selection for U.S. and U.K. multi‑billion‑dollar hypersonic programs and a Rocket Cargo Neutron mission no earlier than 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: MACH‑TB 2.0 participation and Rocket Cargo partnership affirmed, with NET 2026 maintained.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 confirmed Rocket Cargo partnership and hypersonic program selections.

Cluster: Neutron Program: Development, Infrastructure, and Schedule

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Deliver Neutron to Launch Complex 3 in Q1 2026 and conduct its first launch thereafter pending successful qualification testing, superseding earlier 2025 debut targets.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: LC‑3 is open; updated schedule shifts first launch to post‑Q1 2026 delivery, superseding mid/late‑2025 targets. No contradictions in recent updates.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reaffirmed Q1 2026 delivery to LC‑3 and first launch thereafter.* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 confirmed LC‑3 opening.

Commitment: August 28, 2025: Open Launch Complex 3 at Wallops to support Neutron testing, launch, and return‑to‑Earth missions with domestically sourced infrastructure.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 100%

Analysis: LC‑3 officially opened with substantial infrastructure, enabling upcoming Neutron milestones.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 confirmed LC‑3 opening and capabilities.

Commitment: August 28, 2025: Bring Neutron launch capability to Wallops ahead of its maiden flight and provide the Spaceport’s largest orbital capacity at up to 13,000 kg to LEO.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: LC‑3 is operational and sized for Neutron; orbital capacity remains to be demonstrated at flight. Schedule updated to 2026 for first launch.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 detailed LC‑3 readiness and Neutron’s capacity claims.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 shifted first launch post‑Q1 2026 delivery.

Commitment: July 10, 2025: Modify and outfit the ‘Return On Investment’ ocean landing platform for Neutron with delivery in early 2026 to enable rapid reuse and increased annual launch capacity.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Platform modification in work with delivery slated for early 2026; no slips reported.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-07-10 confirmed the modification contract and early‑2026 delivery.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Construct the ‘Return On Investment’ landing platform throughout 2025 for Neutron sea landings with service entry in 2026 and an initial Neutron launch then targeted for the second half of 2025 (now superseded by the November 10, 2025 schedule update).

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Platform schedule remains 2026 service entry; the H2 2025 launch target is superseded by the Nov 10 update to 2026.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 set H2 2025 debut (superseded).* A recent update from 2025-11-10 moved first launch to post‑Q1 2026 delivery.

Commitment: January 9, 2025: Include Neutron in NASA’s VADR launch services with an expected debut from mid‑2025 (superseded by the November 10, 2025 timeline shift to 2026 for first launch).

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Neutron’s inclusion in VADR stands; debut timing shifted to 2026 per Nov 10 update, superseding mid‑2025 expectations.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-09 confirmed VADR inclusion and mid‑2025 debut target (superseded).* A recent update from 2025-11-10 moved first launch to 2026.

Cluster: Space Systems Products, Manufacturing, and M&A

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Close the acquisition of Geost in a cash‑plus‑equity deal valued up to $325 million to expand EO/IR payload capabilities for U.S. national security, superseding earlier transaction value disclosures.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Acquisition closure at up to $325m was confirmed, superseding the prior $275m figure and expanding payload capabilities.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 confirmed closing at up to $325m and significant liquidity.

Commitment: August 22, 2025: Increase U.S. investments over the next five years to expand semiconductor manufacturing, double wafer capacity to ~35,000/month, and grow U.S. headcount beyond 2,000.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: CHIPS funding secured; investment plan and capacity targets articulated; execution underway with strong balance sheet.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-22 detailed the CHIPS award and capacity‑doubling plan.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 cited >$1B liquidity to support initiatives.

Commitment: August 12, 2025: Complete the $275 million acquisition of Geost with up to $50 million in earnouts and begin scaling EO/IR payload production while expanding facilities in Arizona and Virginia (updated by November 10, 2025 to total consideration up to $325 million).

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The Aug 12 close was later updated to a higher total consideration by Nov 10; expansion plans continue.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-12 confirmed the $275m close.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 superseded total consideration to up to $325m.

Commitment: April 8, 2025: Introduce STARRAY, a family of customizable solar arrays delivering ~100–2,000+ watts with short lead times and vertically integrated manufacturing.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Product launched with established vertical manufacturing; complements broader power portfolio and supports large-scale demand.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-08 announced STARRAY introduction and capabilities.

Commitment: April 3, 2025: Expand the Frontier software‑defined radio product line for reliable TT&C with compatibility across global ground networks and support for upcoming NASA projects.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Product line expansion announced and aligned to upcoming NASA missions; no contradictory updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-04-03 detailed the expanded Frontier radios.

Commitment: March 12, 2025: Launch InterMission and MAX Constellation software suites to enhance autonomy, security, and scalability for spacecraft operations and constellation management.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Software suites launched; continued relevance demonstrated across multiple mission updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-12 announced the software suite launches.

Commitment: March 12, 2025: Supply 200 solar panels for the next‑gen OneWeb satellites with first batch deliveries targeted for 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Contract and 2026 delivery target set; no adverse updates.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-12 confirmed the award and 2026 first batch target.

Commitment: February 27, 2025: Develop Flatellite, a mass‑manufacturable, cyber‑secure satellite platform tailored for large constellations using vertically integrated components and software.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Platform announced with vertical integration strategy; aligns with broader end‑to‑end vision.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-27 announced Flatatellite and integrated approach.

Commitment: March 11, 2025: Intend to acquire a controlling stake in Mynaric to scale production of laser optical communication terminals in Europe, subject to regulatory approvals.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: Nov 10 updates referenced completion of Mynaric’s financial restructure, indicating progress; no explicit close disclosed.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-11 announced intent and conditions.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 noted completion of Mynaric’s financial restructure; acquisition closure not confirmed.

Commitment: March 11, 2025: Establish an at‑the‑market equity program of up to $500 million to fund growth initiatives and potential acquisitions such as Mynaric.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: ATM program contributed to >$1B liquidity by Q3 close, enabling M&A and growth funding.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-11 established the ATM.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 cited >$1B liquidity following ATM activity.

Cluster: In‑Space Manufacturing and Reentry (Varda Partnership)

Commitment: May 14, 2025: Manage and execute Varda’s W‑3 mission just 15 days after W‑2, demonstrating rapid turnaround and continued development of the Pioneer spacecraft platform.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: W‑2 reentry on Feb 28 followed by W‑3 launch on Mar 14 (15 days), demonstrating high-cadence operations.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-28 confirmed W‑2 reentry.* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-15 confirmed W‑3 launch; 2025-05-14 recapped rapid turnaround.

Commitment: March 15, 2025: Deploy Varda’s third Pioneer spacecraft (W‑3) and progress the fourth spacecraft through final assembly to support in‑space manufacturing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: W‑3 deployed; W‑4 in final assembly per March updates; subsequent May update reaffirmed multi-mission operations.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-15 confirmed W‑3 and W‑4 progress.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-14 highlighted three missions managed in ~1 year.

Commitment: February 28, 2025: Operate the Pioneer spacecraft to deliver successful reentry for Varda’s W‑2 mission and expand orbital manufacturing capacity via an upgraded bioreactor.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: W‑2 reentry confirmed; expanded capabilities noted.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-28 confirmed W‑2 reentry and upgraded bioreactor.

Commitment: February 18, 2025: Conduct a series of maneuvers under an FAA reentry license to return Varda’s Winnebago‑1 capsule, with additional identical missions planned.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: FAA reentry license granted and operations executed for subsequent missions, demonstrating regulatory and operational capability.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-18 confirmed the FAA license and planned maneuvers.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-14 summarized repeated reentries (demonstrating ongoing capability).

Commitment: February 12, 2025: Increase the cadence of manufacturing, launch, and reentry operations for Varda to make space‑made products commonplace.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple launches and reentries within months validate increased cadence.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-14 highlighted two Earth returns in two months and three managed missions.

Commitment: January 15, 2025: Provide ongoing spacecraft and operations support for Varda’s orbital processing missions to enable routine reentry and an emerging orbital economy.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Continued support evidenced by sequential missions and reentries.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-15 established ongoing support; 2025-05-14 confirmed continued operations.

Commitment: December 17, 2024: Deliver four Pioneer spacecraft for Varda and establish high‑cadence reentry operations as a standard practice.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Delivery milestones and cadence evidenced across W‑2 reentry and W‑3 launch; W‑4 in final assembly.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2024-12-17 confirmed four-spacecraft program; subsequent 2025 updates showed execution.

Cluster: Other Commercial Constellation and Mission Deliveries (Electron)

Commitment: June 24, 2025: Support HawkEye 360’s constellation growth with precise launch services and maintain a high‑cadence schedule including the next launch on June 28, 2025.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: June 26 and June 28 launches executed with rapid turnaround, precisely deploying payloads.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-26 confirmed the HawkEye 360 launch and <48-hour next launch.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-28 confirmed successful follow-on launch.

Commitment: June 16, 2025: Launch “Symphony In The Stars” no earlier than June 20, 2025 and a second dedicated mission before year‑end to contribute to 20+ annual launches.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: The June mission proceeded within the month; no explicit confirmation in summaries of a second dedicated mission for the same customer by year-end.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-16 announced the June mission NET June 20.* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-28 and subsequent cadence updates confirmed sustained launches; second dedicated mission not explicitly confirmed.

Commitment: June 2, 2025: Increase launch cadence for BlackSky with additional Electron missions to expand Gen‑3 on‑orbit capacity.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Multiple BlackSky launches executed in 2025, including Gen‑3, with continued cadence.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-06-02 confirmed a Gen‑3 launch and additional missions planned.* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-18 confirmed BlackSky Gen‑3 deployment and multiple missions.

Commitment: May 22, 2025: Conduct the “Full Stream Ahead” mission for BlackSky as part of four Gen‑3 launches, strengthening real‑time intelligence capabilities.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Mission executed; broader Gen‑3 campaign continued.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-22 set the mission; 2025-06-02 confirmed successful execution.

Commitment: March 18, 2025: Execute OroraTech’s rapid‑turnaround mission to deploy eight wildfire monitoring satellites within four months of contract signing.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Rapid contract-to-launch timeline achieved and mission executed.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-26 confirmed successful deployment within four months of signing.* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-18 announced the rapid-turnaround schedule.

Commitment: March 3, 2025: Provide software and components supporting Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar mission, delivering 400 W power over 1,470 hours to enable surface operations.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Rocket Lab software and components supported the successful lunar landing; operations support acknowledged.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-03 confirmed support and mission success.* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-23 outlined mission support scope.

Commitment: March 17, 2025: Complete the deployment of the 25‑satellite Kinéis IoT constellation in less than a year with five dedicated Electron launches.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Constellation deployed within the stated timeline across five dedicated launches.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-17 confirmed completion of the 25‑satellite deployment.

Commitment: February 18, 2025: Ramp Electron launch cadence for BlackSky and continue dedicated support for its constellation, including the ninth mission since 2019.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Continued cadence with multiple 2025 BlackSky launches validates this commitment.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-02-18 confirmed the ninth mission and ongoing cadence.

Commitment: January 21, 2025: Continue partnering with Kinéis to deploy its 25‑satellite IoT constellation with launches scheduled in early 2025.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Early-2025 launches executed; constellation fully deployed by March 17.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-01-21 set early‑2025 scheduling.* Earlier evidence from 2025-03-17 confirmed full constellation deployment.

Cluster: Financial Guidance and Investor Relations

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Issue Q4 2025 guidance of $170–$180 million revenue, GAAP gross margin 37%–39% (non‑GAAP 43%–45%), GAAP opex $122–$128 million (non‑GAAP $107–$113 million), net interest income ~$3.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss $23–$29 million.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Guidance was issued concurrent with record Q3 results, providing detailed outlook; Q3 outcomes support credibility of guidance.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 issued the Q4 guidance alongside record Q3 results ($155m revenue, 37% GAAP gross margin).

Commitment: November 10, 2025: Host an investor conference call at 2 p.m. PT on November 10, 2025 to discuss Q3 results and the Q4 outlook.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The call was scheduled and associated materials released; Q3 results published the same day.

Progress:* A recent update from 2025-11-10 detailed call timing and Q3 release.* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-22 pre-announced the call time and date.

Commitment: October 22, 2025: Release Q3 2025 financial results after market close on November 10, 2025 and host a 2:00 p.m. PT conference call with webcast replay.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The company delivered record Q3 results on Nov 10 and hosted the call as planned.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-10-22 announced timing.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 confirmed record results ($155m revenue, 37% GAAP gross margin).

Commitment: August 7, 2025: Guide Q3 2025 revenue to $145–$155 million with GAAP gross margin 35%–37% (non‑GAAP 39%–41%) while opening Launch Complex 3 in Q3.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Actual Q3 revenue hit $155m (top of range) and GAAP gross margin 37% (top of range). LC‑3 opened Aug 28, meeting operational milestone.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 confirmed LC‑3 opening.* A recent update from 2025-11-10 reported Q3 results at the top of guided ranges.

Commitment: May 8, 2025: Guide Q2 2025 revenue to $130–$140 million and implement a Rocket Lab Corporation holding company structure effective June 1, 2025.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Q2 revenue subsequently reported at ~$144m (above guide). The holding company implementation was planned for June 1; while not explicitly reconfirmed in summaries, no contrary evidence appears.

Progress:* Earlier evidence from 2025-08-07 reported record quarterly revenue of ~$144m tied to Q2 results, exceeding the May 8 guidance.* Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 announced the guidance and corporate structure plan.