AUR

Cluster: Route Network & Service Footprint Expansion

Commitment: October 28, 2025: Launch a second commercial driverless trucking lane from Fort Worth to El Paso (600 miles) for customers including Hirschbach Motor Lines and Russell Transport, superseding the July 31, 2025 plan that only targeted validation of this corridor by year-end.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 97%

Analysis: The second driverless lane (Fort Worth–El Paso) is launched and operating, with five driverless trucks in regular service and cumulative driverless miles surpassing 100,000. This directly fulfills the commitment and supersedes earlier validation-only targets.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 confirms the Fort Worth–El Paso driverless lane is live, with five driverless trucks and 100,000+ cumulative driverless miles; this supersedes the earlier validation plan from 2025-07-31.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Validate driverless operations between Fort Worth and El Paso and extend to Phoenix by the end of 2025 to cut single-driver transit time in half on Fort Worth–Phoenix, which is partially superseded by the October 28, 2025 El Paso launch now in service.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Driverless validation and launch for Fort Worth–El Paso is complete (superseded by the 2025-10-28 launch). Phoenix extension is progressing (terminal opened and autonomous hauls occurring) but lacks evidence of fully validated driverless operations by the latest update.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 confirms Fort Worth–El Paso driverless operations are live, superseding the validation target.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 notes the Phoenix terminal opened and autonomous hauls on Fort Worth–Phoenix are underway, but no confirmation yet of driverless validation on this corridor.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 reiterated the year-end target for El Paso validation and Phoenix extension; the El Paso portion is now superseded by the 2025-10-28 launch.

Commitment: July 30, 2025: Open a new terminal in Phoenix (opened June 2025) to support autonomous trips and reduce transit times on the Fort Worth–Phoenix lane.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The Phoenix terminal has been opened, enabling operations toward the Phoenix extension and utilization gains.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 confirms the Phoenix terminal opened, supporting autonomous trips and improving utilization.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Achieve more than 20,000 safe driverless miles by the end of June 2025 as part of the initial commercial rollout on public roads.

🌟 Exceeded Expectations | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: The company reported surpassing 20,000 driverless miles shortly after the target window and later exceeded 100,000 miles. The newer 100,000+ mile update supersedes the earlier threshold, demonstrating substantial overperformance.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 reports 100,000+ driverless miles, superseding the earlier threshold and indicating sustained operations.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 states Aurora surpassed 20,000 driverless miles, aligning with the mid-year target.

Commitment: May 09, 2025: Expand commercial driverless operations from two trucks to “tens of trucks” by the end of 2025 to meet growing demand.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Fleet growth is evident (from one to three to five driverless trucks), but the latest update shows five trucks in service—short of “tens of trucks.” With two months left in 2025 as of the latest report, the goal is pending.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 cites five driverless trucks actively delivering, indicating progress but not yet “tens.”
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 notes expansion from one to three driverless trucks on Dallas–Houston.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-09 outlined the plan to reach “tens of trucks” by year-end.

Commitment: May 01, 2025: Launch the commercial self-driving trucking service in Texas with plans to expand to El Paso and Phoenix by the end of 2025.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: The Texas driverless service launched in April/May 2025 and El Paso is now in service; Phoenix expansion is underway (terminal opened, autonomous hauls) but no confirmation of full driverless validation yet.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 confirms the El Paso lane is live, advancing the expansion plan.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 confirms the Phoenix terminal and ongoing autonomous hauls, indicating progress toward the Phoenix goal.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-01 confirms the commercial service launch in Texas.

Cluster: Safety, Capability, Regulatory & Workforce Readiness

Commitment: October 28, 2025: Begin hauling freight without a partner-requested observer in Q2 2026 contingent on completing a closed safety case for the International LT Series fleet, advancing operational autonomy beyond current requirements.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The plan and prerequisites (closed safety case for International LT Series) are clearly articulated, with testing of the platform underway. Execution remains future-dated; no contradictions observed.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 sets Q2 2026 for unobserved operations and notes International LT Series testing at a closed track, establishing prerequisites.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Validate and begin night driverless operations within three months of launch to more than double truck utilization potential, superseding earlier capability plans.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: Night driverless operations began by late July, within three months of the April launch, meeting the commitment and superseding earlier 2H 2025 plans.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 confirms driverless commercial operations at night began, meeting the three-month target.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-13 had planned night capability in 2H 2025; the 2025-07-30 update supersedes this by showing earlier achievement.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Target validation of driverless operations in more challenging weather by the end of 2025 to handle almost all observed Sunbelt conditions.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 75%

Analysis: The latest updates emphasize next-gen hardware with all-weather capability for 2026, suggesting capability groundwork, but do not confirm 2025 validation completion. Progress is evident; validation status remains unconfirmed as of the latest report.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 highlights next-generation hardware with “all-weather operation” and broader sensing range, implying capability progress but not confirming 2025 validation completion.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 set the end-of-year validation target.

Commitment: July 30, 2025: Launch Aurora Driver Live, a public livestream of self-driving truck operations, to enhance transparency around safety and reliability.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The livestream launched, advancing transparency and providing ongoing visibility into driverless operations.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 confirms launch of Aurora Driver Live.

Commitment: May 09, 2025: Reach 100% on the Autonomy Readiness Metric and complete the driverless Safety Case in April 2025, setting a benchmark for safety and transparency.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The safety case closure and 100% ARM were achieved and publicly noted, establishing the foundational safety benchmark for launch operations.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 confirms the driverless Safety Case is closed and 100% ARM achieved for the Dallas–Houston launch lane.

Commitment: May 08, 2025: Deliver a seamless product experience with 95% of production-release loads achieving a 100% Autonomy Performance Indicator (API), demonstrating operational quality.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: While operational quality is implied by ongoing driverless service expansion and night operations, the specific “95% of loads at 100% API” metric is not explicitly corroborated in the provided summaries. Evidence of reliability is directional but lacks the precise KPI confirmation.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 and 2025-10-28 demonstrates sustained, expanding operations (including night and multi-lane service), which supports product quality without directly confirming the 95% API KPI.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 (shareholder letter) is referenced in commitments, but the provided summary does not include the API statistic; newer updates do not supersede or quantify this KPI.

Commitment: May 01, 2025: Maintain consistent transparency and collaboration with FMCSA, NHTSA, TxDOT, and other safety bodies as new routes open.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Multiple artifacts (Driverless Safety Report, public transparency via livestream, and ongoing regulatory engagement) support continued transparency and collaboration across agencies as operations expand.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 reflects continued transparent communications alongside expansion to El Paso.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 shows the launch of a public livestream to enhance transparency.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-01 and 2025-03-25 emphasizes safety transparency and collaboration with government bodies, consistent with ongoing practice.

Commitment: February 13, 2025: Plan to expand product capabilities to include night driving and rainy conditions beginning in 2H 2025, later validated for night operations by July 31, 2025.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: Night operations were validated earlier than planned, but there is no explicit confirmation of rainy-conditions validation in 2025. Later commitments on weather capability are tied to 2026 hardware, partially superseding this plan.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 ties all-weather operation to next-gen hardware slated for 2026, which supersedes the earlier generalized 2H 2025 plan for broader conditions.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-30 confirms night driverless operations began, satisfying the night-driving portion.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Support federal legislation via the AMERICA DRIVES Act to establish a national framework for self-driving trucks and modernize safety protocols.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Public support for federal legislation is on record; while legislative outcomes are outside company control, continued advocacy aligns with the commitment.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 includes leadership statements endorsing the proposed legislation and its importance to national leadership in autonomy.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Build the autonomous technician workforce through apprenticeships and upskilling programs in partnership with educators and industry groups.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 60%

Analysis: The provided summaries do not document apprenticeships or upskilling program launches. Without corroborating updates, this remains unverified.

Progress:

• No direct evidence in the provided updates through 2025-10-28; newer documents focus on operations, hardware, and lanes rather than workforce programs.

Cluster: Hardware, Platforms & Industrialization

Commitment: October 28, 2025: Introduce next-generation Aurora Driver hardware ready for 2026 deployment to cut overall hardware cost by 50%, double FirstLight Lidar range to 1,000 meters, and improve durability to 1+ million miles—updating the February 13, 2025 plan that aimed for a late-2025 introduction.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Next-gen hardware was announced with 2026 deployment timing, extended sensing range, and enhanced reliability, aligning with the updated roadmap and superseding the earlier late-2025 introduction plan.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 announces next-gen hardware with extended range and reliability, manufactured by Fabrinet, superseding the February 2025 timing.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-13 indicated a late-2025 introduction; the 2025-10-28 roadmap updates this to 2026.

Commitment: October 28, 2025: Jointly develop highly scalable hardware with AUMOVIO with production slated for 2027 to enable deployment of tens of thousands of trucks.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The collaboration and 2027 production target are confirmed, aligning with broader industrialization plans for large-scale deployment.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 confirms co-development with AUMOVIO and a 2027 production timeline.

Commitment: October 28, 2025: Expand cross-platform integration of the common-core Driver hardware across Volvo VNL Autonomous, International LT Series, and PACCAR platforms via lineside and facility testing.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Integration is active across platforms, including lineside integration at Volvo’s New River Valley facility and testing on International LT Series, supporting multi-OEM scale-up.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 confirms lineside integration with Volvo VNL Autonomous and testing on International LT Series.

Commitment: October 28, 2025: Add International LT Series Class 8 vehicles to increase customer driverless capacity in 2026 pending completion of the fleet-specific closed safety case.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: Closed-track testing of International LT Series is underway; addition to customer capacity in 2026 depends on safety-case completion. No contradictions in newer updates.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 reports International LT Series testing at the closed test track, a prerequisite to the 2026 capacity addition.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Advance second- and third-generation commercial hardware kits to drive cost reductions, with third-generation scaling targeted for 2027.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 88%

Analysis: The 2026 next-gen introduction and 2027 industrialization efforts (including AUMOVIO collaboration and Continental/NVIDIA manufacturing plans) align with second/third-gen scaling and cost-down objectives.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 outlines next-gen 2026 deployment and 2027 scalability via AUMOVIO.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-13 and 2025-01-06 (NVIDIA/Continental partnership) supports 2027 mass manufacturing readiness.

Commitment: February 13, 2025: Integrate NVIDIA DRIVE Thor into the Aurora Driver via the Continental partnership with production samples in 1H 2025 and mass manufacturing starting in 2027 to underpin large-scale deployment, building on the January 6, 2025 partnership announcement.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 78%

Analysis: The NVIDIA/Continental partnership and 2027 mass manufacturing timeline are consistent across updates. The summaries do not explicitly confirm receipt of 1H 2025 production samples but do not contradict the plan.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-13 sets the 1H 2025 samples and 2027 mass manufacturing timeline.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-06 confirms the strategic partnership and manufacturing plan for 2027.

Commitment: December 12, 2024: Open a 78,000 sq ft lidar R&D and testing facility in Bozeman, Montana to accelerate FirstLight Lidar development and manufacturing readiness.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The facility opened as planned and supports ongoing FirstLight Lidar development, aligning with the hardware roadmap.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2024-12-12 confirms the Bozeman lidar R&D and testing facility opening.

Cluster: Customer Systems & TMS Integration

Commitment: September 21, 2025: Participate in McLeod’s User Conference to share partnership and integration updates with approximately 1,200 customers.

🟡 Partially Met | Certainty: 65%

Analysis: Participation was planned; however, the provided summaries do not confirm attendance post-event. No contradictory evidence; status remains unverified.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 states Aurora would participate in the September 21–23, 2025 User Conference; no later update confirms or contradicts attendance.

Commitment: August 28, 2025: Partner with McLeod Software to create the industry’s first Transportation Management System specifically integrated for autonomous trucks to ease adoption for mutual customers.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The partnership is announced and active, forming the basis for TMS integration specific to autonomous operations.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 announces the strategic partnership to build an autonomy-integrated TMS.

Commitment: August 28, 2025: Implement API integration so McLeod customers can tender loads, dispatch, bill, and gain real-time visibility into autonomous operations without added workflow complexity.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: API integration is underway, enabling standard TMS workflows for autonomous shipments; this underpins adoption and operational visibility.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 details API-enabled tendering, dispatch, billing, and real-time visibility for autonomous loads.

Commitment: August 28, 2025: Begin beta testing the integrated features now with a formal rollout to McLeod customers planned in 2026.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Beta testing has begun; rollout is planned for 2026, consistent with the integration timeline.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 confirms beta testing is underway with a 2026 rollout plan.

Commitment: August 28, 2025: Deliver a premium, customer-centric product experience by meeting fleets inside their existing TMS environments to accelerate autonomous adoption.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 85%

Analysis: The integration approach and conference engagement support a customer-centric experience within existing TMS workflows, facilitating adoption.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-08-28 emphasizes the customer-centric design and adoption benefits via McLeod integration.

Cluster: Commercial Model, Operations Control & Capital Strategy

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Launch Aurora Driver for Freight as a driverless trucking subscription service with revenue recognition in Q2 2025 under a fee-per-mile DaaS model.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 95%

Analysis: The DaaS model is launched, and revenue was recognized in Q2 2025, confirming commercial operations under the intended model.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 reports $1 million in Q2 2025 revenue from driverless and supervised commercial loads, consistent with the DaaS launch.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Operate logistics services with a fleet equipped with the Aurora Driver during early commercialization to refine processes and playbooks before scaling with partners, refining the February 14, 2025 approach.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 92%

Analysis: Active driverless operations, lane expansion, and night operations indicate internal operations refinement ahead of broader partner scaling, aligning with the approach.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 and 2025-07-30 shows active operations and capability expansion, consistent with early-operations control.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-02-14 outlined the intent to briefly operate services during initial commercialization.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Maintain strong fiscal discipline with expected quarterly cash use of $175–$185 million for the remainder of 2025 and focus on liquidity runway through Q2 2027.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Guidance was issued for cash use and liquidity runway, and Q2 updates indicated runway into Q2 2027, consistent with disciplined capital planning.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 provides expected quarterly cash use of $175–$185 million.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 cites $1.3B in cash/short-term investments, funding operations into Q2 2027.

Commitment: July 31, 2025: Maintain sufficient liquidity to meet working capital and capex needs for at least twelve months from the report date while opportunistically raising additional capital.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 90%

Analysis: Liquidity sufficiency for at least 12 months was indicated in earlier MD&A and later extended to Q2 2027, showing strengthened runway.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-04-30 states liquidity sufficiency for at least the next twelve months.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 extends runway expectations into Q2 2027, superseding the minimum threshold.

Commitment: May 09, 2025: Plan to raise $650–$850 million prior to expected positive free cash flow by 2028 to preserve financial flexibility.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 80%

Analysis: The plan to raise additional capital was articulated; subsequent updates emphasize runway through 2027, consistent with staged financing prior to 2028 FCF positivity. No contradiction observed.

Progress:

• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-09 outlines the $650–$850 million capital raise plan ahead of anticipated 2028 FCF breakeven.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-07-31 indicates liquidity through Q2 2027, consistent with planned financing needs and timing.

Commitment: April 30, 2025: Raise $70 million through the ATM program in Q1 2025 to support development and commercialization.

❌ Not Met | Certainty: 55%

Analysis: The provided summaries do not confirm the $70 million ATM raise; absent corroboration, the status cannot be verified. Newer financial summaries do not reference this specific inflow.

Progress:

• No direct confirmation in the 2025-04-30 or subsequent 2025-07-31 summaries; later updates focus on runway, not specific ATM activity.

Commitment: February 14, 2025: Engage OEM, Tier 1, and fleet partnerships to support manufacturing, financing, and operational services for DaaS commercialization.

✅ On Track | Certainty: 93%

Analysis: Multi-party engagements are active, including Continental, NVIDIA, Volvo, AUMOVIO, and fleet customers (e.g., Hirschbach, Uber Freight, Werner). Industrialization and platform integration updates demonstrate progress.

Progress:

• A recent update from 2025-10-28 details integration with Volvo VNL Autonomous, testing with International LT Series, and scalable hardware with AUMOVIO.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-01-06 confirms the Continental/NVIDIA partnership for 2027 mass manufacturing.
• Earlier evidence from 2025-05-08 and 2025-05-01 highlights active fleet partnerships (Uber Freight, Hirschbach; Werner engagement).